Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production will grow by around 0.8% in 2024, reaching a record 37.4 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to the Global Carbon Budget 2024 report.
The report’s authors, experts at the Global Carbon Project, say this is 0.4 GtCO2 higher than the previous record set in 2023.
Total CO2 emissions, including emissions from both fossil fuel combustion and land-use change, will also be a record, reaching 41.6 GtCO2, up 2% from 2023. This is partly due to higher-than-normal emissions from intense wildfires in South America.
Despite the increase in 2024, overall CO2 emissions have largely stabilized over the past decade. This is a sign of modest progress in the fight to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, stabilizing emissions is far from what is actually needed to stop global temperature rise within 1.5 to 2 degrees.
Key observations and forecasts from the new Global Carbon Budget report:
- In 2024, emissions will fall significantly in the EU (by 3.8%) and slightly in the US (by 0.6%). In China, they will increase slightly (by 0.2%), and in India, they will grow by as much as 4.6%. In the rest of the world, total emissions will increase by 1.6%, including international shipping and aviation.
- Global coal-related emissions increased 0.2% this year compared to 2023, while oil-related emissions rose 0.9% and emissions from natural gas consumption rose 2.4%. Emissions from the cement sector and other sources fell 2.8%.
- Global land-use emissions were 4.2 GtCO2 in 2024, up 0.5 GtCO2 from 2023, driven mainly by wildfires, deforestation and forest degradation in South America. Overall, land-use emissions have fallen by about 28% since their peak in the late 1990s, with a particularly strong decline in the last decade.
- If current levels of global emissions continue, there is a 50% chance that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted within the next six years.
- If we talk about warming thresholds of 1.7°C and 2°C, then carbon budgets will be similarly spent in 15 and 27 years, respectively.
- In 2024, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm), 2.8 ppm higher than in 2023 and 52% higher than pre-industrial levels.
Which countries stood out in 2024
In 2024, China will account for 32% of global CO2 emissions . The country’s emissions are forecast to grow by a modest 0.2% this year. This is due to a slight increase in emissions from the coal sector (0.3%) and an increase in emissions from natural gas use (8%). The areas where reductions are expected are the use of petroleum products (-0.8%) and cement production (-8.1%).
The Global Carbon Budget report notes that emissions from oil consumption in China have likely already peaked. This may be due to the accelerated electrification of vehicles. Recall that China’s current commitment is to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, after which the country must begin to reduce them and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
India accounts for 8% of global emissions and is projected to grow by 4.6% by 2024, with coal emissions increasing by 4.5%, petroleum emissions by 3.6%, natural gas emissions by 11.8% and cement emissions by 4%.
Although India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, it has not kept pace with the growth of electricity demand. India has committed to reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 45% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2070.
The United States will account for about 13% of global emissions by the end of 2024, and is responsible for most of the historical emissions and associated accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
U.S. emissions are projected to decline by 0.6% in 2024, driven by a small decline in coal emissions (-3.5%). Oil emissions are expected to decline slightly by 0.7%, while gas-related emissions are expected to increase by 1%. The U.S. wants to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 and become “carbon neutral” by 2050.
The EU will account for 7% of all global emissions by the end of 2024. Emissions in the EU are likely to decrease by 3.8% this year, driven by a 15.8% decrease in coal emissions, a 1.3% decrease in emissions from natural gas, and a 3.5% decrease in emissions from cement production. Emissions from oil consumption in the EU are projected to increase by 0.2%.
The overall decline in emissions in the EU is due to a combination of a rapid transition to clean energy, as well as relatively weak economic growth and high energy prices. The EU and its member states have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
The total emissions of the rest of the world (excluding aviation) make up about 38% of the global total. They are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2024. The growth will be in all areas: in the coal and oil sectors – 0.5% each, in the combustion of natural gas – 2.2%, in the cement industry – 2%.
Overall, in 2024, emissions will decrease in the EU and the US, increase slightly in China, and grow significantly in India and all other countries combined.
Global Carbon Budget
Every year, the Global Carbon Project estimates the state of our global carbon budget . It is based on an analysis of CO2 emissions from human activities and their uptake by the oceans and land, with the remainder added to atmospheric concentrations of the gas. This differs from the commonly used term residual carbon budget , which refers to the amount of CO2 that can be emitted without causing a temperature rise of 1.5 or 2°C.
Over the past decade (2015–2024), the world’s oceans absorbed about 26.5% of humanity’s total emissions, or about 10.6 GtCO2 per year. Land-based ecosystems absorbed 29% of the emissions (an average of 11.5 GtCO2 per year). On land, absorption slowed in 2023, causing some scientists to worry. But in 2024, it had largely recovered to levels close to the average over the past decade.
CO2 emissions from fires have been quite high this year, with around 7 GtCO2 in the first 10 months, similar to the 2023 average.
The report warns that human activity continues to cause CO2 to accumulate and grow in the atmosphere. The authors of the assessment stress that there is still no sign of a rapid and deep reduction in CO2 emissions. But this is exactly what we need to stop the increase in average global temperature in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, within 1.5-2 degrees, and avoid catastrophic consequences of the climate crisis.
This article is adapted from Carbon Brief , supplemented with data on country commitments from Climate Watch
Timur Idrisov
Выбросы CO2 растут несмотря ни на что. Новый максимум и главные виновники
