The main problem for Tajikistan in the fight against climate change is the problem of financing, says independent expert Muhammad Shamsuddinov. Due to the lack of sufficient resources, the government of Tajikistan is mainly trying to attract foreign funding.

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The consequences of climate change for the development of Tajikistan

The weather and climate conditions of Tajikistan are determined by its mountainous landscape, which makes up 93% of the country’s territory. More than half of the territory is located at an altitude of 3 thousand meters, and some points reach more than 7 thousand. The lowest temperature in the country can reach -60 °C, and the highest can exceed +40 °C.

The country’s water reserves make up about 50% of the total regional volume, which are mainly provided by mountain snow reserves and glaciers, which make up 6% of the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan. Water resources provide 90% of agricultural production, and also form the basis of Tajikistan’s renewable energy production, which provides up to 95% of energy production in the country.

The population of Tajikistan is 10.1 million people, the country’s GDP by the end of 2023 reached $ 12.1 billion, and per capita was about $ 1.2 thousand. The poverty level in 2023 was 12.4%. GDP growth on average over the past decade exceeded 7%. And its structure is arranged as follows: agriculture – 25.5%; industry – 17.7%; retail turnover – 15%; other services – 17.4%.

The country’s population is growing rapidly, and its economy is unable to provide the conditions for such growth rates. Problems arise in the labor market, concern food supply, are expressed in the provision of utilities and other services, ensuring the population’s income, social security, etc. All this creates complex problems for the development of the Republic of Tatarstan.

Based on this, Tajikistan in its cornerstone “National Development Strategy of the Country until 2030” has defined the following strategic goals to address the problems it faces:

1) Food security

2) Breaking the communication deadlock

3) Energy independence

In 2018, during his annual address to parliament, President Emomali Rahmon formulated the country’s fourth strategic goal: industrialization.

The situation with the development problems of Tajikistan is aggravated by the consequences of climate change. These problems can be especially destructive due to the low level of ability to adapt to them. For example, in the list of the global adaptation index compiled by the University of Notre Dame from 180 countries, Tajikistan ranks 111th, and among the least prepared, 52nd. RT is the most vulnerable country among the countries of Europe and Central Asia.

This situation complicates the country’s comprehensive development and achievement of strategic goals, and is detrimental to its well-being. For example, Tajikistan’s agricultural sector, which determines the country’s economic development to a greater extent than other sectors, is highly susceptible to climate change. Climate-induced droughts, reduction of rainfed lands, reduction of yields and production, as well as crop failures and losses in livestock production, may negatively affect the country’s agricultural sector. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns may force farmers to leave their lands in search of more suitable agricultural areas. Higher evaporation rates may force farmers to use more water to grow the same variety and volume of crops in new cultivation areas. They may have to change traditional cultivation methods and the number of harvests they receive to adapt to longer growing seasons. Reduced water supplies in drylands may potentially lead to significant economic losses for farmers, especially small farms that are already facing the effects of climate change and extreme climate events. Climate-related crop yield losses in some parts of Tajikistan could reach up to 30% by the end of the century, potentially affecting around 2 million people who are food insecure, of whom 800,000 are at immediate risk of famine. 

In other words, the risks associated with the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of Tajikistan may have not only economic but also social consequences, affecting the well-being and security of the country’s population.

Another important aspect of Tajikistan’s development is the problem of ensuring energy independence and security. The country is heavily dependent on hydropower production, which, as mentioned above, accounts for up to 95% of its total energy production. And climate problems are closely linked to the development of this industry. The state of water resources, weather conditions and the effects of climate change in general complicate planning in this sector. 

The basins of the two rivers Vakhsh and Pyanj, for example, contain the main hydroelectric potential of Tajikistan, which in turn are fed by mountain snow and glaciers. Thus, glaciers alone provide more than 20% of the flow of Tajikistan’s rivers on an annual basis. The ongoing melting and retreat of glaciers associated with climate change is therefore a cause for concern. The current rate of melting amounts to a loss of 0.5%-0.8% in annual terms. Glaciated areas are projected to shrink by 15%-20% by the end of the century compared to current levels. At the same time, according to projections based on the current rate of glacier retreat, most small glaciers in Tajikistan will completely disappear in 30-40 years. 

It is also worth recalling once again in this paragraph the importance of water resources for the development of agriculture, which provide 90% of the sector. 

The transport sector may also be directly affected by the impacts of climate change, which may pose challenges to the functioning of Tajikistan’s transport infrastructure. Roads and railways will be subject to more frequent or severe flooding. Increased precipitation and flooding may accelerate the deterioration of road infrastructure (e.g. boreholes due to loss of hydraulic seals). In high mountains, thawing permafrost may damage roads and bridges. Higher temperatures and solar radiation may cause asphalt to become brittle and crack, leading to temporary or permanent road closures. The above examples illustrate how climate change-related issues affect the integrated development of various sectors of the Tajik economy.

If we generalize the consequences of climate change statistically, they are estimated at a loss of 4.8% of Tajikistan’s GDP or 600 million dollars annually. Thus, the problems associated with these phenomena are acute for Tajikistan, the consequences of which it seeks to minimize by joining international legal institutions to combat climate change and adopting legal documents and strategies in this direction at the national level.

Legal institutions and documents within which Tajikistan fights climate change.

International documents .

In order to combat climate change, Tajikistan has joined a number of international legal institutions and agreements aimed at joint efforts to counter this problem. For example, the Republic of Tajikistan is a party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which it joined in 1998. The goal of this international document, which has been joined by 197 countries, is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere (reduce the share of GHG emissions in the atmosphere). According to this document, the parties to the agreement undertake to reduce GHG emissions in the atmosphere by providing reports on their activities in this direction, which Tajikistan also follows.

The country has already submitted 4 National Communications of the Government of the country to the UNFCCC, the last of which was submitted in 2022. This communication, emphasizing the growth of GHG emissions, talks about their overall reduction relative to 1990. For example, according to the results of the 2016 inventory, it accounted for 39% of the total GHG production in 1990. But by 2030, this figure could reach 61.55% relative to 1990 emissions. RT pursues the goal of reducing from 60 to 70% of existing GHG emissions at the 1990 level.

The Government of Tajikistan in the Communication also emphasized its commitment to implement a Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system to enhance its capacity for transparent reporting and review of information in three stages: 2020-2025; 2025-2030; after 2030. The MRV system plays an extremely important role in combating climate change, and therefore Tajikistan pays due attention to this, needs to improve this system and bring the level of its transparency to the reporting requirements set by the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF).

As highlighted in the report, it should gain new technical capabilities, improved analytical capabilities and ensure active coordination among all stakeholders. Although some efforts have been made to establish a national system for measurement, reporting and verification and a strategy for its development has been adopted, measurement, reporting and verification are currently fragmented and require the development of a sustainable national GHG inventory management system, including the inclusion of components such as Finance, Capacity Building, Technology Transfer and Private Sector Contribution. The development of a common platform and mechanisms will strengthen the capacity of relevant national institutions to improve transparency over time.

To move to the High Transparency Structure, you need : 

• improvement of legislation;  
• improving data management (filling in missing data and improving the quality of collected data; data collection and processing);  
• strengthening institutional mechanisms, including new cross-sectoral groups (within government and between public institutions and the private sector);  
• integration of existing disparate monitoring and reporting systems;  
• human potential development;  
• providing access to the latest technologies and financial resources.

The document highlights another important part of the Enhanced Transparency Framework, namely tracking progress in implementing commitments. In this regard, it is necessary to develop/improve the framework for deep involvement of line ministries, implementation plans, indicators for reporting on the monitored progress in implementing NDCs, as well as the corresponding actions defined in national, sectoral strategies, as well as continuous improvement efforts.

Another important international document within the framework of which Tajikistan is fighting climate change is the Paris Agreement, adopted on December 12, 2015. Currently, 194 countries have joined the document. The agreement, which entered into force less than a year later, is aimed at significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the increase in global temperature this century to 2 degrees Celsius, while simultaneously seeking means to further limit this increase to 1.5 degrees.

Under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, each Party prepares, communicates and maintains successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years that it intends to achieve. Parties take domestic mitigation measures to achieve the goals of these contributions.

In the context of the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP), the NDC partnership provides technical and financial support to countries, particularly developing countries, to improve the quality and enhance their contributions to the Paris Agreement.

The Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) helps developing countries that are members of the NDC Partnership achieve two overarching objectives: strengthening NDCs, including by raising ambition and providing technical expertise, and building capacity.

The process of improving NDCs is coordinated by the Committee on Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan in cooperation with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which acts as the coordinating partner in this process.

The NDC partners in the sectoral context are the European Commission, whose task is to update the energy and water sectors, UNDP – industry, construction and transport, the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) – agriculture and the World Bank – forestry.

The purpose of the sectoral assessment is to analyze the impact of climate change on specific sectors (agriculture, energy, industry, transport, forestry), forecast socio-economic trends of sectors, volumes of future greenhouse gas emissions and potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adaptation measures to overcome the effects of climate change. In order to coordinate the update of the NDC, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan has formed an interdepartmental working technical group, which involves representatives of 20 ministries and departments of the country.

Tajikistan has adopted several national-level documents to combat climate change. For example, the cornerstone document of the Government of Tajikistan on the country’s development, the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan until 2030, identifies key factors related to climate change and influencing the comprehensive development of the Republic of Tajikistan. 

To avoid risks associated with climate change, the Strategy sets the following objectives for their reduction:

1) Ensuring energy security and efficient use of electricity. 

To achieve this goal, tasks are being set to develop the country’s hydropower potential, which will help reduce GHG emissions and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

2) Improving the management of the country’s water resources.

It is planned to modernize irrigation systems and introduce efficient methods of water resource management in the country to adapt to changing climate conditions.

3) Development of sustainable agriculture.

It is planned to introduce modern agricultural technologies and methods aimed at increasing the resilience of agriculture to climate change and reducing the negative impact on the environment.

4) Strengthening the country’s infrastructure and increasing its resilience to natural disasters.

It is planned to take measures to increase the resilience of infrastructure to climate risks, including the construction and modernization of facilities taking into account potential climate threats.

The key document of the Government of Tajikistan aimed at combating the effects of climate change is also the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2030. The main goal of this strategy is to increase the country’s resilience to climate change and reduce the vulnerability of key sectors of the economy. The following measures are defined to achieve the goal :

1) Strengthening institutional capacity and coordination, which means:

1.1. Establishment and strengthening of national and regional structures for effective management of adaptation to climate change.

1.2. Development and implementation of regulatory and legal acts facilitating the implementation of adaptation measures.

2) Integration of climate risks into sectoral planning, namely:

2.1. Incorporate climate risk and vulnerability assessment into development strategies and plans for key sectors such as energy, water, agriculture and transport.

2.2. Development of sectoral adaptation plans taking into account the specifics of each sector.

3. Development of a system for monitoring and forecasting climate change:

3.1. Modernization of the hydrometeorological network to improve the quality of climate data.

3.2. Creation of an early warning system for adverse climate events for timely response.

4. Raising awareness and educational programs through:

4.1. Conducting information and educational campaigns to raise public awareness of the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures.

4.2. Inclusion of climate change and adaptation issues in educational programs at various levels.

5. Mobilization of financial resources and international cooperation, which means:

5.1. Attracting internal and external financial resources for the implementation of adaptation projects.

5.2. Participation in international initiatives and programs aimed at combating climate change and strengthening cooperation with international organizations.

Another important document of the Government of Tajikistan that includes the issues of combating climate change is the Medium-Term Development Program of Tajikistan for 2021-2025. The program recognizes the impact of climate change on economic development and emphasizes the need to adapt to new conditions. In particular, the document notes that the negative consequences of climate change are one of the reasons for the failure to achieve some indicators of the previous development program. 

The 2021–2025 PSR sets out the following priority objectives to combat climate change:

1. Increasing the efficiency of using national resources, namely optimizing the use of natural resources taking into account environmental standards and sustainable development.
2. Accelerated development of the real sector of the national economy through the introduction of innovative and environmentally friendly technologies in industry and agriculture to reduce the negative impact on the environment.
3. Development of human capital and improvement of the quality of social sector services. 
4. Formation of a favorable climate for attracting domestic and foreign investment, namely, stimulation of investment in projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and developing a green economy.
5. Further balanced development of the country’s regions. Taking into account regional characteristics when developing and implementing measures to adapt to climate change.

The challenges of financing the fight against climate change.

Perhaps the main problem for Tajikistan in the fight against climate change is the problem of financing. In 2024, within the framework of the Climate Finance Plan, the NDC developed by the Committee on Environmental Protection with the support of (ADB) determined that Tajikistan needs to allocate $8.41 billion in the period up to 2030, or about $1 billion annually, to achieve the set targets for reducing emissions and adapting to the effects of climate change.

This is quite an impressive sum for Tajikistan, since the size of the country’s economy does not allow it to effectively solve problems related to climate change. The problem is aggravated by the high level of corruption in the country and the lack of transparency in the activities of responsible institutions.

Due to the lack of sufficient resources, the government of Tajikistan mainly tries to attract foreign funding. Tajikistan achieves this goal through active work in the international arena, especially within the framework of organizations and events aimed at solving problems with climate change.

It is virtually impossible to find publicly available information on government funding for climate change, which supports the view that Tajikistan lacks resources and, accordingly, insufficient funding.

But we can find information on foreign financing, which can give a certain picture of how climate change is being addressed. In the example above, the NDC Climate Finance Plan, developed by the Environment Committee, states that out of the total amount of $8.41 billion, $5 billion is for financing the Rogun HPP. In this regard, it is worth noting that in December 2024, the World Bank allocated $350 million for a grant for the construction of the Rogun HPP. At the same time, the Asian Development Bank allocated $270 million for the construction of this HPP. These grants were allocated, among other things, to help Tajikistan in its development and transition to a green economy.

In July 2024, ADB allocated a $50.8 million grant to Tajikistan, $50 million of which will be used to develop business projects that meet climate change goals. “The program supports reforms that provide environmentally sustainable SMEs with subsidized financing, with a priority focus on financing for women entrepreneurs,” the bank said in a statement.

In March 2024, the EU allocated a $91 million grant to Tajikistan under the EU Multiannual Indicative Programme (MIP), which aims to finance projects in various areas of the country’s development. This grant included projects in the field of green economy development, in particular $45 million for energy projects. 

And in December of the same year, agreements were signed between the EU and Tajikistan to provide a grant in the amount of 20 million dollars, 19.88 million of which were directed to support the green transition, including through the development of agriculture.

In February 2022, within the framework of the World Bank’s Resilient Landscapes Restoration Program in Central Asia (RESILAND CA+), aimed at combating the impacts of climate change on the development of Central Asian countries, the WB allocated $45 million to Tajikistan to restore the country’s landscape.

 “As part of the project, modern approaches and climate-optimized methods of managing forests, pastures and agricultural lands will be introduced, which will help restore natural resources and improve people’s living standards,” the WB website says.

Another example comes from 2010, when the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development allocated a grant of $10 million to Tajikistan through the Pilot Programme for Building Resilience to Climate Change, financed by climate investment funds.

The examples we have provided show that international funding is provided to Tajikistan from various sources, on an ongoing basis and in various areas related to the consequences of climate change. 

Conclusion and findings.

The study of the topic at the beginning of the article shows that the problem of climate change is acute for the government of the Republic of Tajikistan and directly affects various areas of the country’s development. Tajikistan, being the most vulnerable country in the region to the effects of climate change, clearly understands the need to take measures to prevent these effects.

In this regard, the Government of Tajikistan is adopting legal documents aimed at combating climate change and is also joining international documents in this area. The Government of Tajikistan is also forming the necessary institutions, which are tasked with identifying risks and developing solutions aimed at combating the effects of climate change.

Tajikistan is actively involved in the international arena to attract the attention of the world community to the country’s problems and its hydropower potential. Tajikistan seeks and establishes contacts with international partners to implement its national interests in combating climate change.

https://cabar.asia/ru/pravovye-osnovy-pravitelstva-tadzhikistana-v-borbe-s-izmeneniem-klimata