December 17, the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries presented its report (in English and Russian ) with an analysis of alternative options for completing the Rogun hydroelectric power station project in Tajikistan, which was previously sent to members of the World Bank Board of Directors.
According to the authors of the report, it is impossible to make a responsible decision on the optimal option for completing the Rogun HPP on the Vakhsh River without comparing alternative energy development paths in Tajikistan that are relevant in modern conditions and the associated impacts on nature and society. Without this, as noted in the report, it will not be possible to choose the most effective option for completing the project, which would reduce the risks of negative consequences and increase the return on the gigantic investment of $6.4 billion needed to build a dam 335 meters high.
As the environmentalists claim in their report, even if a decision is made to fully complete the Rogun HPP using the maximum option, with the construction of the highest dam in the world (this is the option currently being considered by the World Bank Board of Directors), the acute problems that the giant hydroelectric power station is being built to overcome will still remain unresolved. In particular, rolling blackouts in Tajikistan will continue as before – at least until 2036. The creation of a maximum-sized reservoir will greatly increase the risks of negative impacts from the Rogun HPP downstream: on the UNESCO World Heritage Site of the Tigrovaya Balka Tugai Forests Reserve, on the last populations of the endangered shovelnose sturgeon in the Vakhsh, as well as on the fertile plains along the rivers, where at least 7 million people live in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, whose well-being depends entirely on irrigated agriculture.
The report convincingly demonstrates that even in today’s reality, such a negative scenario can still be avoided. The same amount of funding, but spent on the construction of a lower dam at the Rogun HPP, combined with the development of solar power plants connected into a single energy complex using the project funds thus saved, will lead to significantly less economic, social and humanitarian damage from the implementation of the Rogun project. In particular, reducing the design height of the Rogun HPP dam by 70 meters will avoid the resettlement of about 40 thousand local residents, and thus the forced resettlement will affect only one third of the number of people who are planned to be resettled now when building a dam of maximum height.
Preliminary assessments by the Rivers Without Borders coalition clearly show that the combination of large-scale solar power generation in Tajikistan, coupled with the completion of the smaller Rogun hydroelectric power station, could fully cover the country’s winter electricity deficit by 2030–2031. In addition, diversification of energy sources within Tajikistan’s unified energy system will also significantly reduce risks to the energy sector and the economy, increasing its resilience to climate change.
Рогунская ГЭС: что может быть эффективнее самой высокой плотины в мире?
