The Caspian Sea supports more than 300 species of endemic invertebrates and 76 species of endemic fish. If the water level were to drop by 5 and 10 meters, the breeding grounds of the Caspian seal, which is already endangered, would shrink by 81%, respectively. Sturgeon populations, which have already declined by 90% over the past 50 years, could lose another 25-45% of their shallow-water habitat. The collapse of the sea’s ecosystem also threatens internationally significant natural areas, including fish spawning grounds and migratory bird stopovers.

The negative impact of falling water levels will affect more than 80% of ecosystems and ecologically significant areas in the region. Reduced precipitation will exacerbate existing water shortages, with serious consequences for infrastructure, the economy, and local communities. The Volga River, a key trade route in the region, could become impassable, disrupting supply chains for millions of tons of cargo per year. Aktau is already experiencing problems with desalination due to falling sea levels.
In response to the worsening crisis, international environmental organizations have united in a global movement, Save the Caspian Sea, founded by environmental lawyer Vadim Ni. The movement advocates for international cooperation, as well as corporate accountability and transparency.

In February 2025, a round table was held in Astana as part of the campaign with the participation of scientists, activists, media representatives and government agencies. A letter was also sent to the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan with a request for environmental information on production sharing agreements and joint ventures.

“The Caspian Sea is disappearing before our eyes, and the consequences are extremely serious. This is not only an environmental crisis, but also a humanitarian and economic catastrophe. Modern studies of the Caspian Sea confirm what we have been saying since the launch of our movement: a comprehensive approach, as well as close international attention and cooperation, is needed to solve these problems. Scientists’ forecasts show that Central Asia will face chronic water shortages by 2028. For Kazakhstan, the loss of 20% of the Caspian Sea could cause unpredictable damage to its growing population,” said Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement.

The Caspian Sea crisis is reminiscent of the Aral Sea disaster, where environmental degradation led to severe health consequences. Toxic dust from the dried-up Caspian Sea bed could cause respiratory diseases in millions of people. The coastline could recede by 89 kilometers (average estimate), forcing coastal communities in Kazakhstan and Russia to move inland. Fishermen would be on the brink of economic collapse due to the disappearance of fish spawning grounds, and alternative sources of income such as aquaculture and ecotourism would disappear.

The Save the Caspian Sea movement calls on industrial companies operating in the Caspian Sea to immediately ensure transparency in environmental assessments, tighten regulation of industrial pollution and a coordinated response to the problem of declining water levels.

Kazakhstan  is  the only Caspian country with the largest coastline, and without an institute for studying this sea. Meanwhile, the country’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered its creation back in November 2022. In January 2024, the organization legally appeared , but in fact, it never began to work, due to the fact that “at the top” they decided to transfer the institute from the balance sheet of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to the balance sheet of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources.

https://www.lada.kz/aktau_news/society/135936-uchenye-biut-trevogu-obmelenie-kaspiia-grozit-razrushitelnymi-posledstviiami.html