The article by political scientist Aida Amangeldina is devoted to the threat of desertification of the Caspian Sea. The text examines the main causes and consequences of this problem, as well as possible solutions for countries whose territories are affected by the impending environmental disaster: Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
In November-December 2023, “Trouble” organized the research group VZVES / SUSPENDED MATTER, which studied the environmental policy of the Soviet Union and its long-term consequences in Central Asia, Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. One of the important results of the group’s work was an online conference with reports and discussions by project participants and invited speakers. The recording of the conference is available on the project’s YouTube channel.
The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is rapidly shrinking and has already reached a record low of 29 meters below sea level. It is bordered by five coastal states – Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan – and covers a vast area of 386,400 km2. Known for its rich biodiversity, the Caspian Sea is home to nearly 850 animal species and 500 plant species . In addition to its biodiversity, the Caspian Sea is rich in natural resources, including oil and natural gas. It is estimated to contain about 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic meters of natural gas .
Unfortunately, the Caspian Sea is on the verge of desertification, which poses a significant threat to marine flora and fauna, as well as to the socio-economic situation in the coastal states. The main reasons for the shallowing of the Caspian Sea can be primarily associated with climate change and anthropogenic factors, such as the regulation of river inflows, desalination and hydrocarbon pollution.
The decline in the water level to alarming levels in the Caspian Sea began in the early 20th century. Between 1930 and 1941, a significant annual decline was noted, averaging 14.7 cm. From 1941 to 1978, the Caspian Sea continued to shrink, albeit at a slower rate, decreasing by about 3 cm per year. The lowest level was reached in 1977: -29 m. Interestingly, contrary to predictions of a further decline, the water level began to rise between 1978 and 1995, increasing by about 15 cm per year. However, this trend did not last long, and since 1995 the water level has begun to decline again . Since then, it has been decreasing by an average of 7 cm per year. In 2023, it exceeded its lowest level, reaching 29.20 m below sea level .
Caspian Sea Level (CSL) Change: 1840-2015
If this trend continues, especially in the northern part of the Caspian Sea bordering Kazakhstan, it will be at risk of extinction . It is estimated that seventy percent of the water area subject to shallowing is in Kazakhstan . The northern region is particularly at risk due to the shallowest depth – only 1/100 of the total water volume with an average depth of 4.5 m. The negative trend was already observed last summer in the city of Aktau, which is located on the shores of the Caspian Sea. On June 8, 2023, a state of emergency was declared in this port city due to the decline in sea levels . Immediately after this, the Minister of Ecology of Kazakhstan Zulfiya Suleimenova said that the environmental situation in the Caspian is difficult, and the negative consequences primarily affect the Kazakh sector .
Why is the Caspian Sea drying up?
The main cause of environmental problems in the Caspian Sea is climate change: the amount of precipitation over the Caspian Sea has decreased, and the rate of evaporation has increased. Since 1979, the average surface temperature of the Caspian Sea has increased by about 1 degree Celsius per year .
In addition, climate change has reduced the volume of river inflows that feed the Caspian Sea. Of the approximately 130 rivers that provide the sea with its annual water supply, the main inflow comes from the Volga, which accounts for 80 percent of the Caspian’s volume. Low precipitation in the inflowing rivers leads to a decrease in sea level . As a result of these factors, the Caspian Sea level dropped by 31-44 cm in 2010 .
However, the reasons for the decline in the Caspian Sea level are not limited to natural factors alone. Anthropogenic factors resulting from human activity have significantly affected the water level. A striking example is the reduction in the inflow of water from the Caspian rivers. Industrialization carried out in the Soviet Union in the 1930s played a decisive role in shaping the state of the reservoir . Numerous reservoirs were built on the inflowing rivers to support the operation of hydroelectric power stations. It was during this period that the level of the Caspian Sea began to decline. The construction of dams on the Volga in the 1950s disrupted the inflow of water and the number of sturgeons in the reservoir. Between 1956 and 1969, the volume of the Caspian Sea decreased by 25 km 3 annually. It is estimated that if the volume of water coming from the Caspian rivers had not been reduced, the current level of the Caspian Sea would be more than 1-1.5 m higher . Currently, there are about 8 dams on the Volga, which significantly impede the flow of water into the Caspian Sea .
However, the anthropogenic damage from the rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea is more significant than just a drop in water levels – these rivers also pollute the Caspian Sea. Every year, they carry 75,000 tons of oil products into the body of water, which is half of its total hydrocarbon pollution. More than 95% of this pollution comes from the Volga alone.
Another part of hydrocarbon pollution is related to hydrocarbon extraction in the Caspian Sea itself. Given the huge amount of hydrocarbon resources in the sea and their large-scale extraction by the coastal states, it is not surprising that hydrocarbon pollution has become a serious problem.
In the Kazakh sector alone, about 8,000 tons of oil enter the Caspian Sea every year . Hydrocarbon production has accelerated the decline in the Caspian Sea level for three main reasons. First, hydrocarbon production releases greenhouse gases, which reduces precipitation over the reservoir and leads to drying out. Second, hydrocarbon production causes soil erosion, which further leads to a decrease in the water level. Finally, the production process itself significantly pollutes the water, which is the main negative factor in hydrocarbon production in the Caspian Sea .
The decline in the Caspian Sea water level is also related to desalination projects undertaken by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran. These coastal states rely on desalination of water from the Caspian Sea due to water shortages in their territories. Due to the relatively low cost of desalination, these states are interested in extracting large volumes of water. Moreover, desalinated water is used not only for human needs and in agriculture, but also for the production of green hydrogen. It is noteworthy that five tons of desalinated water are required to produce one megawatt of energy. Kazakhstan has several projects in cooperation with EU countries to produce and import hydrogen. Although such projects certainly contribute to improving the environmental situation in Europe by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they negatively affect the Caspian Sea by accelerating the decline in water levels .
What are the consequences of the falling water levels in the Caspian Sea?
The effects of the drying up of the Caspian Sea primarily affect its inhabitants, in particular the Caspian seal population. The seal population has declined significantly since 1950, with the last sharp decline observed in 2022 on the Russian coast of the Caspian Sea, where 2,500 bodies of animals were found . The mass die-off of seals has led to their inclusion in the Red List of Threatened Species of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, as well as in the Red Books of coastal states.
The reduction in the seal population may be due to the above-mentioned natural and anthropogenic factors. Low precipitation and high evaporation have reduced the thickness and seasonal duration of the ice cover, which is crucial for the reproductive processes of seals. As a result, seals are forced to change their habitats, which negatively affects their reproduction. In addition, new habitats may be polluted by hydrocarbon extraction, which leads to the accumulation of toxicants in the seals’ bodies. As a result, seals lose resistance to diseases and environmental stress .
In addition, the decrease in water levels could negatively affect residents of coastal cities that rely on desalinated water from the Caspian Sea. In January 2023, adverse weather conditions caused a water intake channel in the port city of Aktau to freeze. As a result, the channel was unable to desalinate water, leaving residents without water for more than 10 days. . This incident shows that residents of port cities in coastal countries will be left without water if the Caspian Sea continues to dry out. In addition, the economies of coastal states will suffer by losing shipping and maritime industries. Given the large profits generated from trade routes on the body of water, desertification will cause serious damage to the region’s economy.
Problems in Caspian water resources management
The consequences of the Caspian Sea level decline may be more devastating due to ineffective water management. Although negative indicators of the Caspian Sea state have been observed since the beginning of the 20th century, the first joint measures aimed at solving environmental problems were taken only in 2003. In particular, the five littoral states for the first time reached an agreement and signed the Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea, which entered into force in 2006. The Convention contains four protocols: “Regional Preparedness, Response and Cooperation in Combating Oil Pollution Incidents”, “Protection of the Caspian Sea from Pollution from Land-Based Sources and Activities”, “Conservation of Biodiversity” and “Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context”. However, the process of designing and ratifying environmental institutions for the Caspian Sea has been delayed, which has complicated the implementation of measures to mitigate environmental problems. Moreover, only the first two protocols have entered into force , and the rest have not been ratified by either Russia or Iran. The reluctance of these countries to ratify the protocols can be explained by their geopolitical and economic interests in the region. They pay attention to environmental issues only when it is in their interests. For example, in order to stop the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, Russia and Iran resorted to the “Convention on the Legal Status”, which obliges the parties to comply with environmental standards when constructing pipelines in the reservoir . In addition, Russia’s reluctance to regulate the inflow from the Volga is due to its economic interests. Therefore, there is still no management of river tributaries in the Caspian Sea, despite the fact that this is the main factor contributing to the decline in the water level.
Another water management issue concerns the legal uncertainty surrounding the delimitation of the Caspian Sea. The littoral states have different preferences for dividing the body of water. For example, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan favor a division that would ensure the sovereignty of the littoral states over the divided territories. Kazakhstan, in particular, favors treating the Caspian Sea as a closed sea and therefore prefers a median-line division of the seabed and resources. Azerbaijan’s position is that the Caspian Sea is a border lake that should be divided entirely along the median line. Iran, on the other hand, favors a condominium approach, an approach in which the body of water is divided equally and jointly managed by all littoral states. Without this arrangement, Iran will have the smallest share in the body of water .
Despite disagreements over the delimitation of the sea, the littoral states signed the “Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea” in 2018 in Aktau. According to the Convention, the Caspian Sea is divided into three zones: territorial waters, fishery zones, and a common area. The littoral states have sovereignty over the territorial waters, which extend 15 nautical miles from the coast, and the fishery zones, which extend for another 10 nautical miles. The area outside the fishery zones is for common use. However, the delimitation of the seabed area remains unresolved. States can delimit their respective sectors of the seabed only by concluding bilateral or multilateral agreements . In addition, the Convention has not yet been ratified by Iran, making it invalid .
Overall, the deterioration of the Caspian Sea environment can be attributed to global warming, anthropogenic factors and poor water management. All of these factors contribute to the decline in the Caspian Sea level, which may have far-reaching consequences for the biodiversity and socio-economic status of the littoral states. Although the immediate consequences may seem unclear now, the situation may worsen in the near future. To avoid repeating the fate of the Aral Sea, it is necessary to take timely measures to regulate the water resources of the Caspian Sea.
What can be done to prevent the threat of desertification of the Caspian Sea?
The first important step is to implement integrated water resources management (IWRM). The implementation of IWRM strategies should begin with the development of action plans to address the problem of the decline in the Caspian Sea level. This can be achieved if all littoral states unite and take comprehensive measures to minimize the impact of all anthropogenic factors on the water level.
Since tributaries play a major role in the decline of the Caspian Sea level, their management should be addressed first. Russia, where the main Caspian rivers are located, should maintain sustainable levels of irrigation in these tributaries and control the quantity and quality of discharged water. Desalination control should involve cooperation between littoral states and agreement on an acceptable level of desalination that would minimize the impact on the decline of the sea level. As for the control of hydrocarbon pollution, this issue has already been addressed in the Aktau Protocol. However, effective monitoring and enforcement mechanisms are needed to realize the objectives of the agreement.
In addition, achieving delimitation of the Caspian Sea bed is of crucial importance. Water management in the Caspian Sea will not be successful without a complete division of the water body. The littoral states must be responsible for the environmental state of their sectors. Since the implementation of these measures depends on cooperation and consensus among the five littoral states, they must prioritize the protection of the Caspian Sea environment over economic gain.
Finally, the participation of the international community in the management of the Caspian Sea environmental issues is an important step to prevent the threat of desertification. Given the global economic importance of the Caspian Sea, the consequences of the decrease in water levels will affect not only the coastal states. Therefore, developed countries should provide scientific knowledge and technology to regulate the level of the Caspian Sea and prevent adverse effects.
Main photo: advantour.com
This article was prepared with the partnership support of Beda Media and IWPR
https://cabar.asia/ru/kaspijskoe-more-nahoditsya-pod-ugrozoj-opustynivaniya-kakovy-prichiny-i-posledstviya