In 2025, all Parties to the UNFCCC, including Central Asian countries, will be required to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the third time , known as NDC 3.0.
Aliya Vedelih
NDCs are commitments by countries to contribute to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5–2°C. Adaptation to climate change impacts is a key component of NDCs, but the role of this section is limited to a communication tool with the UNFCCC, while the main function of NDCs is to be a planning tool.
In line with current commitments, countries in the region have set the following targets for 2030:
- Kazakhstan : reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% compared to 1990 levels.
- Kyrgyzstan : reduce emissions by 15% compared to 2017 levels.
- Uzbekistan : reduce the carbon intensity of the economy by 35% compared to 2010 levels.
- Tajikistan : Do not exceed 60-70% of 1990 emission levels.
- Turkmenistan : Reduce emissions by 20% compared to 2010 levels.
These targets take into account only the internal resources of countries. With international support, countries are ready to increase the ambition of their commitments. Currently, Central Asia accounts for less than 1.5% of global emissions.
In Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the NDC development process is supported by the NDC Partnership , a global initiative that brings together countries, international organizations and donors to support the implementation of climate goals. The organization helps integrate NDCs into investment plans.
Challenges and Opportunities: Expert Opinion
Timur Sabitov , head of the project management department at the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change of Uzbekistan, emphasizes that sand and dust storms have become one of the serious problems in the country. This problem is especially acute in Tashkent, the country’s largest city with a population of more than 5 million people. In an interview for UNDP Climate, Sabitov noted:
“Managing sand and dust storms requires coordinated action, including forecasting and public information. These measures are part of a national adaptation plan, which includes an investment strategy to attract climate finance.”
Kazakhstan has already begun developing NDC 3.0. The first public consultations were held in Astana in December 2024. Vice Minister of Ecology Mansur Oshurbayev said that the updated NDC will focus on the transition away from coal, the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. He emphasized:
“If we do not join forces, NDC 3.0 will become another useless document that will not work.”
At the same consultations, Aida Aliyeva from the NDC Partnership noted that Kazakhstan’s NDC will include a chapter on losses and damages to which adaptation is not possible, and the emission reduction target could be increased to 16%.
The role of society and the civil sector
The work on NDC 3.0 provides an opportunity for activists and media representatives to influence the process. We can convince governments that adaptation to climate change is a must. This requires redesigning national economies so that they become adaptive and resilient in the face of climate challenges.
Gulmira Ismagulova , a climate change economist, stresses the importance of quality implementation of NDCs:
“It is not enough to develop a document; it is necessary to ensure its timely implementation. This requires qualified experts in ministries and at the local level who will be able to convey the importance of adaptation to the top managers. Civil society also plays a key role, maintaining an active dialogue with the authorities, businesses and the population.”
Strategic vision and national priorities
According to Aida Aliyeva , each country should reflect its unique economic, geographical and social characteristics in its NDC. For example:
- India and China – GDP growth.
- Japan, South Korea, Australia – technological innovations.
- South Africa, Germany, Spain – job creation.
- Bhutan – Eliminating Inequality.
Kazakh expert Bulat Yessekin believes that the focus of the NDC should be on restoring ecosystems:
“Climate change signals a breakdown in natural processes. To stabilize the climate, we must stop destroying ecosystems and implement effective technologies that are useful for both mitigation and adaptation.”
It is important for us as a society to explore how climate change adaptation can be a priority in Central Asia. Given that the ultimate goal of climate negotiations is to move away from fossil fuels, our future must be based on carbon-neutral and nature-friendly economies.
View the latest versions of NDCs from Central Asian countries:
- Kazakhstan – April 2023 ( English , Russian ).
- Kyrgyzstan – October 2021 ( English ).
- Uzbekistan – October 2021 ( English , Russian ).
- Tajikistan – June 2022 ( English ).
- Turkmenistan – January 2023 ( English , Russian ).
Климатические обязательства стран Центральной Азии. Что такое ОНУВ 3.0?
