The administration of the new US president will generally continue the previous policy towards Central Asia, experts from CABAR.asia believe. The countries of the region are not even focal points for the US, says one of the experts. In some cases, Trump’s decisions will be unexpected and unpredictable, however, the main directions of his policy will remain unchanged, says another.
Rustam Burnashev, PhD in Philosophy and professor at the Kazakh-German University, does not expect the US to become more active in the region.
The newly elected US President Donald Trump has completed the formation of his future administration. In particular, the new head of the State Department will be Mark Rubio, who is considered a hawk, known for his tough position on China and Iran. However, experts say that the new administration is being formed on the principle of loyalty and Trump will make the most important decisions independently. Can we expect a stable, predictable policy towards the Central Asian countries from the new administration?
The Central Asian countries are not only not a priority, but even a focus for the United States. The US agenda for such countries is stable and practically does not change not only due to the change of administrations, but even in cases when attention to the countries increases (as was the case with the Central Asian countries after the start of the military operation of the Anti-Terrorist Coalition in Afghanistan in 2001). Such “positive indifference” of the United States to Central Asia could be observed during the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency (although in those years the United States maintained a military and political presence in Afghanistan and, accordingly, attention to Central Asia was relatively high). In this regard, I do not expect any serious changes in the US position regarding the Central Asian countries after Donald Trump takes office.
The Central Asian region has not played a special role in US policy in recent years. Washington has only tried to make Central Asian countries comply with sanctions against Russia in order to stop the export of dual-use goods to Russia. Will the new administration pursue a more active policy in the region? What can it offer our countries?
No, I do not expect any US activation in the Central Asian countries. Of course, the situation may change due to the transformation of the US-Russia and US-China conflict lines. However, how this transformation will occur and whether it will occur at all is difficult to say at the moment.
How will the C5+1 format continue to function? Or can we talk about its demise?
The C5+1 format, where “1” is the United States, is purely diplomatic in nature (it functions at the level of foreign ministers). Therefore, it will be preserved in the format that exists now.
Which country in the region could become Washington’s key partner?
I agree with the position stated in one of the previous questions that “Central Asian countries have not played a special role in US policy.” Moreover, I assume that they will not play such a role in the near future. Accordingly, the question of a “key partner” loses its meaning.
Trump says he wants quick peace in Ukraine. There are two possible scenarios: the first, most likely, would see most sanctions against Russia remain in place. The second would see the US lift most of the sanctions. If Trump succeeds in ending the fighting, how will this affect the Central Asian countries? Will Russia be able to restore its influence in the region to the level it had before it invaded Ukraine?
I think there are more than two scenarios. The impact on the Central Asian countries depends on which specific scenario is implemented. But in any case, it is strange to talk about the “restoration of influence” of Russia in the Central Asian countries, since in recent years this “influence” (I put the term in quotation marks, since it does not correspond to my dictionary) has not decreased in any way. This is well demonstrated by the analysis of both Russia’s trade turnover with the Central Asian countries, and the volume of investments, and the number of projects implemented with Russia’s participation.
The Trump administration will increase pressure on China, a country that has been a key partner for all Central Asian countries in recent years. How will this affect the relations between Central Asian countries and China?
It all depends on the US strategy on this issue and China’s counter-strategy.
What lies ahead for interstate infrastructure projects in the region, especially since many of them reduce Russia’s economic presence in the region? For example, in 2021, the Trump administration expressed support for the development of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. However, many of these projects involve China and Iran, and are potentially the main beneficiaries. Will Trump interfere with these projects?
I do not agree with the assessments made. Firstly, most of the infrastructure projects implemented in recent years in the Central Asian countries and with their participation not only do not contradict the interests of Russia, but also correlate with them. Secondly, their beneficiaries in one way or another are all participants in the projects and it is extremely difficult to determine the leadership here. If we talk about the possibility of the US influence on these projects, then here we need to highlight two key questions: does the US have a significant interest in spending resources on this and do these resources exist? So far, I would answer both questions negatively.
It is also possible to predict a tightening of sanctions policy towards Iran, which is a key partner of Tajikistan. Will this have an impact on Tajikistan?
To a certain extent, Iran being under sanctions affects all Central Asian countries. At least in terms of restrictions on the implementation of infrastructure projects that Iran may be involved in. However, the ties of the Central Asian countries (including Tajikistan) with Iran in the “real” sectors (economic, military, etc.) are not so fundamental that their change could somehow significantly affect the situation in these countries.
What will be Trump’s policy towards the Taliban? Let us recall that it was under his rule that the decision was made to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. Will he somehow tighten the pressure on the regime in Kabul? Or, on the contrary, will he try to legitimize it by entering into negotiations with it?
I see no reason for the US position to change on Afghanistan.
Can the EU become an effective replacement for the US that will balance the presence of China and Russia in the region?
The United States is not an instrument for balancing the presence of China and Russia in Central Asia. Accordingly, the European Union has no one to replace.
There is already a fairly large diaspora from Central Asian countries living in the United States. Often these people feed their families in their homeland. Meanwhile, Trump promises to increase deportations of illegal migrants. Could this complicate the social situation in our countries?
The statistics that I know do not allow me to say that the number of migrants (especially illegal or with an irregular status) from Central Asian countries to the United States is so significant that its change can somehow affect the economy of these countries.
Donald Trump has also never shown much interest in human rights. What should civil society in Central Asian countries expect from the new administration? Will important American civil society support programs be cut? Or is this not up to the new administration?
Therefore, the general line of attention to the protection of human rights and democratic institutions in the United States will remain. Another question is how resources will be distributed in a situation of increasing tension between the United States and China or further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Tajik expert: Uzbekistan is a potential main partner of the USA
A Tajik political scientist who asked to remain anonymous also believes that US policy towards Central Asia will remain unchanged.
Can we expect a stable, predictable policy towards the Central Asian countries from the new Donald Trump administration?
In some key moments it will be predictable – this concerns continued pressure on Iran, support for Israel in its confrontation with Hamas in Gaza, a tough stance towards China. It can be assumed that Trump will try to reduce world oil prices, which is one of the main postulates of his economic and geopolitical program.
On the other hand, much remains unclear – for example, how exactly he will achieve his goals and fulfill his election promises. For example, Trump promises to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the shortest possible time, but it is still unknown what strategy of influence he will choose and how successful it will be.
Much will depend on objective factors and political and economic events to which Trump will be forced to respond.
How will the C5+1 format continue to function? Or can we talk about its demise?
The future of the C+5 format and US policy towards Central Asia will also largely depend on objective factors, such as the further development and progress of the war between Russia and Ukraine or the situation in Afghanistan. If the war continues, the US and the EU will continue to expand anti-Russian sanctions. Accordingly, they will seek compliance with the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation from the countries of the Central Asian region, using for this purpose, among other things, the negotiations within the C+5 framework.
In general, serious changes in the US policy towards our region should not be expected. Firstly, the US foreign policy strategy in its main provisions is determined for many years ahead. Therefore, a new president, no matter what influence he has, will not be able to immediately and radically change the strategy and policy of the state. In addition, the US has a complex system of political agreements and counterbalances, which prevents abrupt and unjustified turns in state policy.
Which country in the region could become Washington’s key partner?
Most likely, under the Republicans, the US will maintain relations with all Central Asian countries, however, Uzbekistan is considered by the Americans as a potential main partner. The reason is that, unlike its other neighbors, it is more economically and politically “distant” from China and Russia.
If Trump succeeds in ending the hostilities, how will this affect the Central Asian countries? Will Russia be able to restore its influence in the region, which it had before the invasion of Ukraine?
Under Trump, core sanctions against Russia will at least remain at the same level – unless Moscow makes serious concessions to achieve peace in Ukraine. If the peace process in Ukraine is delayed, sanctions against Russia will likely be strengthened – with particular attention paid to the compliance of its neighbors and traditional partners in the CIS.
Overall, it seems to me that under Donald Trump, US policy towards Russia may be much tougher than under the Democrats. Moscow understands this well, and that is why there is no particular enthusiasm in Russian state media about the election of Donald Trump today. If Trump succeeds in ending the war in Ukraine, this will have the most favorable effect on the region’s economy, in particular, due to the restoration of the Russian labor market, which employs millions of Central Asian migrants.
To some extent, this will allow Russia to restore its influence in the region, but hardly to its previous, pre-war level; after all, during this period, other players, primarily China, have strengthened their positions in the region and are not going to give them up.
What awaits interstate infrastructure projects in the region, especially given that many of them reduce Russia’s economic presence in the region?
International infrastructure projects in the region will continue to develop in the coming years, as their main sponsor is China, which is unlikely to reduce its investments in this area. The Trump administration is unlikely to interfere with the implementation of these projects, primarily the Trans-Caspian Corridor, as it will direct transport flows around Russia, so its implementation will serve to reduce the role and influence of Moscow in the post-Soviet space. In addition, too many regional and international players are interested in the implementation of new transport corridors; so Trump is unlikely to have enough opportunities and levers in his hands to block these initiatives.
Trump has succeeded in significantly easing Israel’s isolation in the Arab world in the past. He came close to normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Can he do the same now? Will this lead to Iran’s isolation?
Regarding the conflict in Gaza, the Trump administration will take a tough pro-Israel stance. In principle, next year the opportunities for negotiations between Arabs and Israelis will increase, as the parties have already managed to get tired of the conflict and need a break (the same can be said about the conflict in Ukraine).
The new US administration may use this moment to push through a series of new agreements between the parties, which will at least help end the hostilities and move the peace process forward. Perhaps in the future, the process of settling relations between Israel and the Arab countries will resume, but it is unlikely to happen in the coming years. Anti-Israeli sentiments among the population of the Arab countries have grown too strong, which their leaders will have to take into account one way or another.
Can the EU become an effective replacement for the US that will balance the presence of China and Russia in the region?
The EU will not be able to completely replace the US in the region, although its influence in the post-Soviet space and Eurasia as a whole will increase. In the coming years, the balance in the region will tilt towards China, which will increase its presence and influence at the expense of Russia. In general, Vladimir Putin and his policies have caused serious and largely irreparable damage to long-term Russian interests and presence in the region. His war in Ukraine and confrontation with the West have upset the existing balance in the region and created conditions for the emergence of new geopolitical players who intend to actively fill the resulting vacuum.
Donald Trump is known for his skepticism about global warming. How will this affect the world and the region in particular? After all, the position of the largest powers influences the global climate agenda.
Donald Trump will not be able to significantly change the global agenda on the global warming issue. There is already an established consensus on this issue, which is shared to some extent by most developed countries. Trump may delay or influence the process of solving this problem to some extent (for example, by increasing oil production in the US), but not upset the established consensus.
Donald Trump has also never shown much interest in human rights. What should civil society in Central Asian countries expect from the new administration? Will important American civil society support programs be cut? Or is this not up to the new administration?
As for human rights and support for civil society, even without Donald Trump, it has been steadily declining over the past two decades.
Therefore, Trump’s arrival may only speed up this process somewhat, but will not cause any radical changes.
Temur Umarov: Trump will be more pragmatic towards China
Temur Umarov , a research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, believes that most American officials overseeing the region will retain their posts.
Can we expect a stable, predictable policy towards the Central Asian countries from the new Donald Trump administration?
Trump’s political appointees are important for the priority areas of US foreign policy. That is, if we were talking about the fate of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the war in Ukraine, issues like that, which are much higher on the priority list, then, of course, a lot would depend on this.
But Central Asia is not very high on the list of priorities for US foreign policy. Accordingly, decisions on the region are not made at the highest level. Therefore, it is likely that political appointees will have little to do with Central Asia. It will be dealt with by that part of the US bureaucracy that is located at lower levels of leadership, including the State Department and other institutions. And this is precisely the part of the bureaucracy that is not very susceptible to changes in the White House leadership.
Of course, some of these people will leave, but most will stay and continue to work. Especially considering that Central Asia is a fairly niche topic. There are few specialists in America who do this, who know Central Asia and who have worked in this area. And those people who are specialists in Central Asia, they understand that it is in their interests to continue to work in this region while they have the opportunity, while they are not very old, and not to quit their careers in the middle.
Accordingly, if you look, for example, at the current ambassadors in the Central Asian countries, you will notice that many of them worked both under the previous Trump and under Biden. These will be approximately all the same people. They will continue their work in the direction in which they have set it in recent years. Accordingly, I do not think that there will be big changes.
Based on the list of priority foreign policy directions that Trump has already spoken about, we must understand that Trump is ready to make some original decisions about the situation. In Ukraine, he has already stated that he will negotiate with Putin. He has already spoken about freezing the conflict, people from his circle have already said that Ukraine needs to reconsider its goals.
Which of course will have an impact on Central Asia. This will be a certain consequence of Washington’s revision of priorities.
And I think we will see a return of such a greater focus on Beijing’s actions, an attempt to draw Central Asian countries into the US-China confrontation. Accordingly, what we saw in the early years of Trump’s presidency. But I think that at the same time, the US foreign policy leadership has learned the lesson of the previous Trump presidency and noticed that an openly anti-Chinese approach in Central Asia is not perceived very positively. Accordingly, the American establishment this time may reconsider its approaches a little and be more pragmatic.
https://cabar.asia/ru/kakoe-vliyanie-okazhet-prihod-trampa-na-vlasti-i-grazhdanskoe-obshhestvo-stran-tsentralnoj-azii
