At present, nowhere in Central Asia does the concern about climate change as a multiplier of insecurity rise to the level
of alarm, but the situations in the mountains and densely populated areas, as well as in the southern borders of Central
Asia, warrant ongoing attention.
The Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains – with the Ferghana Valley in between – are geopolitically volatile areas where socioeconomic insecurity has been an inherent part of life for many years. The mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate
change: melting glaciers and permafrost disrupt water regimes and threaten ecosystems. Natural disasters are more prevalent and more damaging in the mountains. And mountain dwellers endure greater poverty and isolation than lowlanders.
Retreating glaciers, melting permafrost and disruptions in precipitation and snow melt patterns change the hydrology of
mountain rivers. Water deficits and changes in river regimes are likely to increase the energy insecurity in the mountain
areas dependent on hydropower and the food insecurity in the lowlands dependent on water for irrigation. In dry and lowwater years, competition for pastures and local water resources increases, and water diversions that disadvantage others
may lead to high tensions.
The near-term projected climate change impacts in densely populated areas are no more than a moderate concern, but
many people are at risk of food insecurity and the effects of heatwaves, especially in places with competition for natural
resources. Large-scale labor migration, predominantly male and working-age youth, increases the stress on the women,
children and elderly who stay behind and are exposed to crop failures, extreme weather and natural disasters.