How are the most important climate change issues reflected in the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan?
IllustrativeRecently, the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) was held in the capital of Azerbaijan, in which the Tajik side also participated. During the summit of leaders, President Emomali Rahmon emphasized the importance of combating climate change for the Republic of Tajikistan, and also spoke about the country’s plans to go completely green by 2037.
Due to the relevance of the topic, we will try to understand how important the climate agenda is for the Republic of Tajikistan using the example of the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan until 2030.
Since gaining independence, the Republic of Tajikistan has faced a huge number of complex problems in the economic sphere, which create risks for the socio-political stability of the country and its security as a whole.
This situation has defined the problem of comprehensive national development of the country as the most important and strategic goal of Tajikistan. The Republic of Tajikistan is developing strategic documents in this direction.
The National Development Strategy until 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy – 2030), adopted by parliament in 2016, is the cornerstone document to date. It outlines the main problems and directions of the country’s development that require solutions.
One of the problems hindering the country’s development is the problem of climate change and its impact on various sectors of the economy and social life.
This issue is of paramount importance for Tajikistan, as the country is the most vulnerable to climate change among the countries of Europe and Central Asia according to the calculated simplified climate change vulnerability index, being a particularly sensitive country according to this criterion due to its low adaptive capacity.
Of 180 countries ranked by the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Index, Tajikistan ranks 111th, 78th among the most vulnerable countries and 52nd among the least prepared countries.
Annual losses from climate change and extreme climate events are estimated at US$600 million, or 4.8% of Tajikistan’s GDP.
These circumstances make solving problems related to climate change a priority for the government and the country, including within the framework of Strategy 2030.
Tajikistan’s Four Strategic Goals and Climate Change Challenges
The Strategy 2030 defines the following strategic goals:
– food security
– a way out of the communication impasse
– energy security
In 2018, during his annual address to parliament, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmaon formulated the country’s fourth strategic goal – industrialization.
All the mentioned goals are closely related to climate change issues, which greatly affect the country’s development.
For example, solving the problem of food security, which should ensure the growth of the population’s well-being, requires the sustainability and development of the country’s agricultural sector.
Climate change issues are hitting the sector hard. Climate change-induced droughts, reduction of rainfed lands, reduction of yields and production, as well as crop failures and losses in livestock production could negatively affect Tajikistan’s agricultural sector.
Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns may force farmers to abandon their lands in search of more suitable agricultural areas. Higher evaporation rates may force farmers to use more water to grow the same variety and volume of crops in new cultivation areas.
They may have to change traditional growing methods and crop yields to accommodate longer growing seasons.
Reduced water supplies in drylands could potentially lead to significant economic losses for farmers, especially smallholder farmers who are already facing the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events.
Climate-related crop yield losses in some parts of Tajikistan could be as much as 30% by the end of the century, potentially affecting around 2 million people who are food insecure, of whom 800,000 are at immediate risk of famine.
The ongoing melting and retreat of glaciers due to climate change is a concern for Tajikistan, as the country’s glaciers and snow reserves are the main sources of irrigation water.
The current melting rate is 0.5%-0.8% annualized. Glaciated areas are projected to shrink by 15%-20% by the end of the century compared to current levels.
At the same time, according to forecasts based on the current rate of glacier retreat, most small glaciers in Tajikistan will completely disappear in 30-40 years.
With regard to the issue of energy security, it is also worth noting that in Tajikistan, the spheres of electricity production and transmission are sensitive to climate change and extreme climatic events.
Because energy and water systems are interconnected, changes in precipitation, high drought risk, reduced snow cover and different snowmelt times can negatively impact electricity production and supply.
For example, melting permafrost and strong winds could damage power lines and negatively impact electricity distribution across the country.
The transport sector may also be directly affected by the effects of climate change due to infrastructure problems. Roads and railways will be subject to more frequent or severe flooding. Increased rainfall and flooding may accelerate the deterioration of road infrastructure (e.g. boreholes due to loss of water seals).
In high mountains, melting permafrost can cause damage to roads and bridges. Higher temperatures and solar radiation can cause asphalt to become brittle and crack, leading to temporary or permanent road closures.
The above examples reflect how problems associated with climate change affect the comprehensive development of various sectors of the Tatarstan economy.
What solutions does Strategy 2030 propose to eliminate these obstacles?
Strategic Solutions for Strategic Problems
The 2030 Strategy defines general directions for economic development and measures that can help reduce the impact of climate change, including:
1) use of non-traditional (renewable) energy sources
2) minimizing the negative impact of transport on the environment and human health
3) support for employment in the “green” sector, expansion of environmental entrepreneurship and the market for environmental services with state support.
The implementation of these measures requires solving the following problems:
– a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of the country’s economic sectors
– informing the population about climate change issues
– improving the legal framework that facilitates the implementation of climate change adaptation measures
– attracting investments (both internal and especially external) in this direction (adaptation)
– promoting its agenda on this issue in the international arena and attracting the attention of the world community to the country’s problems
– close cooperation with international partners (governments, international governmental and non-governmental organizations) on risk reduction and adaptation.
In conclusion, it is worth emphasizing once again that the problem outlined in Strategy 2030 is one of the key ones for the country’s development.
Therefore, informing the population on these issues is also, I am not afraid to say, a strategic task, since solving climate-related issues requires the contribution of every citizen of the country.
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