The 2023/24 El Niño event has peaked and is one of the five strongest on record. It is now gradually weakening, but in the coming months it will continue to affect the global climate, increasing the heat trapped by greenhouse gases produced by human activity. From March to May, temperatures above normal are predicted for almost all land areas.

You can read about what the El Niño phenomenon is in  the material from Kazinform.

A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Fact Sheet says there is about a 60% chance of El Niño persisting during March-May, and an 80% chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) occurring in April-June. %. There is a potential for a La Niña event to develop later in the year, but this probability remains uncertain at this time.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. This is a natural climate regime associated with warming ocean surfaces in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño influences the weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world. But now this is happening in the context of climate change under the influence of human activity.

— Every month since June 2023, a new monthly temperature record has been set, and 2023 became the warmest year on record. El Niño contributed to these record temperatures, but the main culprits were undoubtedly heat-trapping greenhouse gases, says WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

He also talked about the temperature of the water in the seas.

— Surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean clearly reflect the influence of El Niño. However, over the past 10 months, sea surface temperatures have remained persistently and unusually high in other parts of the globe. In January 2024, sea surface temperatures were the highest on record for that month. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Niño alone, says Celeste Saulo.

According to the WMO, El Niño has its greatest impact on global climate in its second year of development—in this case, 2024.

According to the Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by WMO in conjunction with the El Niño/La Niña Advisory, the ongoing, albeit weaker, El Niño event and above-normal sea surface temperatures are projected across much of the world’s oceans as are expected to increase temperatures across almost all land areas over the next three months and affect regional rainfall patterns.