By 2028, Central Asia may face a transition to a chronic stage of water shortage. This assessment was voiced by Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, during a round table devoted to climate change and water use in the region. According to the expert, this problem is becoming especially relevant and requires immediate attention from the states of the region.
The specialist names climate change as the main reason for the upcoming deficit, which has a noticeable impact on the environment. In particular, global warming leads to a gradual reduction in the volume of glaciers, which are a key source of fresh water for Central Asia. A decrease in ice reserves in the long term inevitably affects the volume of river runoff, which poses a threat to the provision of water resources to the region.
Another significant factor aggravating the situation is the rapid population growth. According to the expert, the demographic dynamics in Central Asia remains high.
The most noticeable changes are taking place in Uzbekistan, where the population has increased from 22 million in 1991 to 37.5 million by early 2025. The total number of residents in the region as a whole is approaching 80 million. The increase in population leads to an increase in freshwater consumption, which puts additional pressure on already dwindling water resources.
In addition, Stanislav Pritchin drew attention to the state of the infrastructure used for water supply and irrigation. A significant part of the water supply systems is outdated, which leads to significant losses. According to various estimates, up to 50 percent of the water intended for irrigation does not reach its final destination due to inefficient transportation and outdated technologies.
The situation is further complicated by the lack of effective water management mechanisms at the interstate level. Despite the existence of bilateral and trilateral negotiations between the countries of the region on water distribution issues, a single institution with sufficient authority to coordinate actions has not yet been created. As the expert noted, there is currently no common strategy that would cover not only the division of water resources, but also the development of long-term solutions.
As a positive example, he cited the agreement of three states in the region on the joint implementation of the Kambar-Ata project. However, in his opinion, this step, although important, is not capable of fully solving the existing problems.
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