The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has raised the likelihood of a strong El Niño event developing in its latest long-range forecast, potentially reaching “super” levels and affecting the nature of the Atlantic hurricane season, Fox Weather reports .

According to a forecast published in May, the probability of reaching an extreme El Niño phase by November has increased significantly compared to March estimates, when it was approximately 55%. The model now indicates a virtually complete probability of an event of this magnitude forming.

Analysts note that a strong El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and enhances their formation in the eastern Pacific. However, current ECMWF calculations show no clear reduction in overall hurricane activity this season, which may indicate a delayed impact from the climate phenomenon.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, approximately 13 named storms and six hurricanes are expected this season, which is close to the long-term average. Meanwhile, Atlantic surface temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the season.

Experts also point to the possibility of wetter conditions in the fall and winter in the southern United States if El Niño persists in a strong phase. At the same time, parts of the tropical Atlantic region may remain more active than expected for the period of this climate phenomenon’s influence.

Google machine translated