Country Profile
Key Facts & Figures
2,724,000 km2
Area
20.8 million
Population
9.4 million (45%)
Rural Population
11.4 million (55%)
Urban Population
8 / km2
Population Density
Geography & Population
With a territory of 2,724,000 km2, Kazakhstan is the largest country in the sub-region. Kazakhstan’s population of 20.8 million has a relatively low density of 8/km2, with 9.4 million (45%) living in rural areas and an urban population of 11.4 million (55%).
Economy
As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan holds vast natural resources. Most of the economy is devoted to the services and import-export sector. Agriculture comprises a relatively small portion of the economy (4.5%).
Agriculture
The agriculture sector is dominated by wheat production, a major export crop. Other important crops include barley, cotton, sugar beets, sunflower and flax.
Land Use
Kazakhstan utilizes most of its land for agricultural activities, which account for 5 per cent of GDP and employs a quarter of the population. Kazakhstan is the largest producer and exporter of wheat in the Central Asia region, which plays a central role in food security.
Energy Supply
Kazakhstan derives most of its energy supply from non-renewable fossil fuel resources, including oil (68%), coal (15%) and gas (14%). The renewable resources supply makes up less than 3%, including 2% from hydropower.
Climate Summary
Kazakhstan experiences a continental climate, with long, hot summers and cold winters. Winter in the north of the country is long and cold – in some years the frosts reached – 52°C (Astana), but there are also thaws up to 5°C. The shortest season in the north is spring, which lasts 1.5 months, while summer lasts 3 months and winter extends from October to April. Snow primarily falls in November, but can continue through April.
Climate Projections
Climate models make the following projections for Kazakhstan’s future climate:
- Mean temperatures are projected to be warmer, especially during December to February and June to August.
- Mean annual temperature is expected to increase by 2.9°С by 2050.
- “Cold” days are expected to decrease by 35 days per year by 2050.
- During December through May precipitation is projected to be decrease by 2%-5% by 2050.
- Precipitation for the months of June to November is projected to increase by 1%-4%.
- Annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 2060.
Climate Risks by Sector
Agriculture
Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the agriculture sector are listed below:
When temperatures increase past 37oC most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature over 40 °C may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists for the central and southern parts of Kazakhstan. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest.
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock.
The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increase.
Sector Vulnerability
Agriculture is hardly impacted and may experience an overall growth of productivity. Regional there are great difference. Where Kostenay and North Kazakhstan may experience and increase of productivity West Kazakhstan, Almaty, Zhambyl and Turkestan are the hardest hit by climate change. For the southern provinces the impact is increased by the low adaptive capacity and possibly land degradation. West Kazakstan, Atyrua and Aktobe show a high sensitivity for climate change.
Energy
The energy sector is linked to climate variability and change in numerous ways. On one side, global energy production is a strong contributor to the drivers of climate change, namely through the emission of greenhouse gases. On the other side, it is also exposed to the diverse impacts of climate variability and change through changes in energy supply (e.g. disruption of operations and distribution) and demand (growing populations and evolving power needs). The consequences can be complex, yet they are often both positive and negative.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the energy sector are listed below:
Fossil fuels require water for cooling. An increase in the temperature of the water bodies will inevitably cause a decrease in cooling capacity. Furthermore, water discharged into the environment from the cooling systems will result in a higher temperature, thus increasing the risk to the natural environment. It is expected that the energy required for cooling will increase as much as 25%. Also, a reduction in generation effectivity and transmission capacity are anticipated.
More precipitation will mean more water in the rivers and increase the potential for hydropower. However, the occurrence of more extreme precipitation means that reservoirs will need to increase their ability to buffer dangerous floods, thus reducing the overall efficiency of hydropower schemes.
Due to the increased risk of flooding, normal operation levels will have to be lowered, thus reducing the overall production efficiency of hydro energy schemes. Furthermore, flood risks may hinder energy transmission and transportation. Additionally, more intense flooding will result in greater sediment transport, water turbidity and the wear-and-tear of mechanical equipment.
Droughts limit the availability of water required for cooling fossil fuel plants, thus reducing overall energy production. To account for more frequent droughts, reservoirs will need to retain more water, which will affect hydro power production.
Sector Vulnerability
Energy may expect decreased cooling capacity for fossil energy, Hydro energy may experience due to glacier melt temporary increased productivity, which is however decreased by the increase of the heavy precipitation in the mountain ranges. For the southern and western provinces, the transmission capacity will be negatively influenced by the increase of heat.
Water
Over the past century, substantial growth in population, industrial and agricultural activities, and living standards have exacerbated water stress in many parts of the world, especially in semi-arid and arid regions. Climate change, however, will regionally exacerbate or offset the effects of population pressure for the next decades. It is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions. In contrast, water resources are projected to increase at high latitudes. Proportional changes are typically one to three times greater for runoff than for precipitation. Furthermore, Climate change is projected to reduce raw water quality, posing risks to drinking water quality even with conventional treatment.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the water sector are listed below:
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Heat increases the demand for water. Meanwhile evaporation also increases resulting in greater losses of exposed surface water. Glacial melt contribute to discharge, but reduces the overall water stock. The quality of water decreases, and the incidence of pests increases.
In general, an increased precipitation means that more water is potentially available for use.
An increase in more extreme precipitation events means a higher risk of floods. Multipurpose reservoirs will need to keep normal operation levels lower to account for the increase in flood risks. Lower Normal Operation levels mean that less water is available for downstream use when needed. Furthermore, it leads to increase of turbidity and sedimentation, less infiltration to the aquifer and increased load of parasites into reservoir and wells.
Drought events increase water demand, but also evaporation, and ultimately to a reduction in the overall water balance.
Sector Vulnerability
The water sector may expect increased stress as result of the drought risk that occurs mainly in southern and western provinces of Kazakhstan. The increased heavy precipitation will intensify this impact.
Transport
An increase in temperature and extreme precipitation has clear and direct impacts on the transportation sector. Temperature increases in the middle and southern part of Kazakhstan will inevitably cause a deterioration of the road conditions, melting of the asphalts and wear of the infrastructures. Extreme precipitation will also cause the risk for flooding and the risk of temporary or permanent damages to roads and bridges.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the transport sector are listed below:
Pavement of roads is most vulnerable to heat. Higher temperature will require other and new types of asphalt, more resistant against damage caused by rutting and melting. The incidence of traffic accidents strongly correlates to heat.
A shift in the seasonal precipitation and elevation is expected to increase the risk of avalanches and glacier lake breaches.
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The increase in extreme precipitations events will mean that the design conditions of roads and bridges might become inadequate. The risk of temporary or permanent disruption to transportation routes could become inevitable. Extreme precipitation is a major cause of hazards like mudflow, flash floods and landslides, which all disrupt infrastructure by putting an impact on road and bridge foundation and causing an overload of the drainage system.
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Sector Vulnerability
The transport sector may experience as result of increased heat increased asphalt melt, especially in the southern part of the country. Infrastructure for drainage and works like bridges may need to be redesigned to adapt to increased levels of precipitation.
Hazards
Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the hazards sector are listed below:
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With the increase in temperature as one of the causes, also on high altitude, the glaciers are melting, increasing formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood
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Precipitations is now happening earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains thus increasing the risk for avalanches.
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Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
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Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.
Sector Vulnerability
The main hazards that are expected to increase are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs. Issues is that these are mostly not recognized as hazard as the responsibility is firstly not under Emergency Situations but under other sectoral institutions like agriculture. North western provinces will be impacted most by drought, south eastern provinces most by extreme precipitation. Most river basins may experience increased flood risk. Syr dary, Turgay, Iskim and Uralsk River Basins in contrary, may expect reduced flood risk.
Health
The human health sector has clear links to climate variability through both direct exposure as well as indirect pathways. Obviously, negative health impacts come from extreme climate events, such as heat waves, hurricanes/storms, floods and droughts. Gradual changes of climate affecting water, food and air quality also have negative influence on human health around the world. Beyond the physical effects are issues related to mental health. Research has shown that increased numbers of extreme events can leave significant fractions of the population with PTSD-like symptoms. Although controversial, studies indicate that there is linkage between rising temperatures and increase in aggression and violence in society.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the health sector are listed below:
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With every degree in Celsius of temperature increase, the call into hospitals increase by approximately 2.5%. This means that the Government of Kazakhstan will need to allocate additional budget and capacity to support the health sector. The main impacts of increased heat on health conditions include increases to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a decrease in overall food safety and greater incidence of traffic accidents.
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Extreme precipitation increases the risk of pollution or contamination of drinking water supplies. In addition, the impact of hazards will increase.
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Drought adds additional pressure on human health through more dehydration and reduced availability of drinking water.
Sector Vulnerability
The health sector may as result of heat and drought, expect an increase of call into hospitals all over the country, but especially in the southern and western provinces. Also, the emergency capacity will be impacted.
Forestry
Large parts of Kazakhstan are covered by forests. The increase in heat will cause a shift in the ecological zones of the Country and the likelihood that pest / diseases attacking large swath of forest areas. Like for the agriculture sector, an increase in temperature will cause stress in the growth of the forests. Furthermore, although the expected increase in precipitation over Kazakhstan might provide a positive impact, the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events will equally negatively impact these parts of the country as risk of erosion due to flooding will also increase.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the forestry sector are listed below:
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Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.
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The increase in precipitation that is expected over Kazakhstan will positively affect the forest areas.
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Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion. Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.
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Over the long-term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.
Sector Vulnerability
Forestry in the Almaty and Zhambyl areas will experience, as result of the heat and drought, a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas (especially in the mountains) and an increase of pests and diseases.