Country Profile
Key Facts & Figures
425,400 km2
Area
37.86 million
Population
18.6 million (49%)
Rural Population
19.3 million (51%)
Urban Population
84 / km2
Population Density
Geography & Population
With a territory of about 425,400 km², Uzbekistan has an estimated permanent population of 37.86 million in mid-2025. This gives a population density of around 84 inhabitants per km². About 18.6 million (49%) people live in rural areas, while around 19.3 million (51%) reside in urban centers.
Economy
Uzbekistan’s economy is focused on the services and import-export sector, agriculture and industry sectors. Agriculture accounts for over 25.5% of national GNI. Industry makes up about 33% of Uzbekistan’s GNI.
Agriculture
The largest crops are wheat, cotton, potato, tomoto and other vegetables. Other minor crops include grape, onion, apple, cucumber and other vegetables.
Land Use
Uzbekistan utilizes most of its arable land for agricultural activities, which account for over 64% of land use. Forest areas make up nearly 9 per cent of territory.
Energy Supply
Uzbekistan bases it’s energy supply predominantly on natural gas. Coal accounts for 5%, while hydropower and other renewable resources account for less than 2% of the energy supply.
Climate Summary
zbekistan’s climate is arid continental — temperate in the north, and sub-tropical in the south. The country’s climate is characterized by seasonal and day-to-night fluctuations in air temperatures. Summers are long, dry and hot; Spring is humid; and Winter is irregular.
Air temperatures in the desert can reach 45-49°C, while in the south temperatures drop to -25°C.
Precipitation has regional variation. The plains region receives a minimal 80-200 mm/year, while the foothills receive as much as 300-400 mm/year, and about 600-800 mm/year on the west and southwestern slopes of mountain ridges.
Climate Projections
Climate models make the following projections for Uzbekistan’s future climate:
- Mean summer temperatures (May to September) range from less than 22°C to 28-30°C in central districts.
- Mean winter (December to early February) temperatures range from -9°С in northern districts of the country to 5-7°C in south-eastern districts.
- Extreme temperatures have dropped below -35°С during severe winters and have exceeded 50°С in summer heat extremes.
- Since 1938, all regions of Uzbekistan have experienced a trend of increased mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all seasons of the year. This warming trend is less pronounced in the Tyan-Shan and Pamir-Alay Mountain branches than in the rest of the country.
- Climate change is expected to produce increases in monthly maximum temperatures across Uzbekistan. The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of 2.4ºC by mid-century and nearly 5ºC by end of the century.
- The number of hot days in Uzbekistan is projected to increase by 28.6 days by 2040-2059 days, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20°C) is projected to increase by over 31 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Precipitation falls predominately in winter and spring, and rainfall is extremely sparse between June to August. Â
- March and April typically have the highest rainfall.
- Changes in historical precipitation patterns have resulted in increased aridity in agricultural areas, low river flow and over-stressed water sources.
- Uzbekistan will experience a high variability of rainfall across different agroecological and climatic zones.
- Across the country, however, there have been some spatial differences in precipitation trends, with annual precipitation declining between 50-100mm in some central and eastern districts and moderately increasing in areas surrounding the Aral Sea.
- Increased heat and precipitation variability will lead to increased evapotranspiration in summer months resulting in a decrease in river flowing conditions.
- Future projections suggest that increased glacier melting (glaciers in Central Asia have shrunk by 25% and are expected to shrink by another 25% over the next 20 years) is expected to impact water availability and river flow in the short to long term in Uzbekistan.
Climate Risks by Sector
Agriculture
Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
When temperatures increase past 37°C, most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperatures above 40°C may render plant crops infertile. Such a risk persists for most of Uzbekistan. Also, with rising temperatures, pest and disease may develop earlier in the growing season. The early onset of hotter temperatures will also affect the blooming of cereals and grain crops, potentially resulting in a diminished harvest.
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially offset the gains for the sector.
The increase of heavy precipitation causes additional erosion and waterlogging, leading to less groundwater recharge rates and ultimately affects overall water capacity. Extremes in precipitation will also increase the risk of crop damage / failure.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increases.
Sector Vulnerability
Agriculture in Uzbekistan is expected to be most affected by climate exposure in Surkhondarya, Jizzaks, Syrdarya and Tashkent provinces, including for rainfed and groundwater-based irrigated agriculture. Increase of extreme temperature and warmth duration will have a significant impact. Temperatures will reach above 37-40oC earlier in the growing season, thus shortening the effective growing season. The increase of extreme precipitation will balance out the advantages of greater total precipitation. Of increasing concern is the decrease of soil productivity (measured by NVDI) in relation to soil moisture, which is seen across the whole Central Asia Region, including Uzbekistan. This phenomenon seems to indicate land degradation as a result of human activity, namely animal husbandary practices. This is evident in eastern Navoy, Southern Kashkadarya, Surkhondarya, Tashkent and eastern Syrdarya and Fergana provinces.
Energy
The Uzbek energy sector is linked to climate variability and change in numerous ways. On the one hand, global energy production is a strong contributor to the drivers of climate change, namely through the emission of greenhouse gases. Additionally, the energy sector is also exposed to the diverse impacts of climate variability and change through changes in the energy supply (e.g. disruption of operations and distribution) and demand (growing populations and evolving power needs). The consequences can be complex, yet they are often both positive and negative.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the energy sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
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Fossil fuels require water for cooling. An increase in the temperature of the water bodies will inevitably cause a decrease in cooling capacity. Furthermore, water discharged into the environment from the cooling systems will result in a higher temperature, thus increasing the risk to the natural environment. It is expected that the energy required for cooling will increase as much as 25%. Also, a reduction in generation effectivity and transmission capacity are anticipated.
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More precipitation will mean more water in the rivers and increase the potential for hydropower. However, the occurrence of more extreme precipitation means that reservoirs will need to increase their ability to buffer dangerous floods, thus reducing the overall efficiency of hydropower schemes.
Due to the increased risk of flooding, normal operation levels will have to be lowered, thus reducing the overall production efficiency of hydro energy schemes. Furthermore, flood risks may hinder energy transmission and transportation. Additionally, more intense flooding will result in greater sediment transport, water turbidity and the wear-and-tear of mechanical equipment.
Droughts limit the availability of water required for cooling fossil fuel plants, thus reducing overall energy production. To account for more frequent droughts, reservoirs will need to retain more water, which will affect hydro power production.
Sector Vulnerability
Energy in Uzbekistan may expect decreased cooling capacity for fossil energy. Hydropower may experience a temporary gain in productivity as a result of glacier melt, but offset in the medium-term by more heavy precipitation in the mountainous areas and related buffer capacity. In Navoy and the eastern provinces, especially Navoy, Kashkandarya and Surkhondarya, the transmission capacity will be negatively influenced by hotter temperatures.
Water
Over the past century, substantial growth in population, industrial and agricultural activities, and living standards have exacerbated water stress in many parts of the world, especially in semi-arid and arid regions. Climate change, however, will regionally exacerbate or offset the effects of population pressure for the next decades. It is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions. In contrast, water resources are projected to increase at high latitudes. Proportional changes are typically one to three times greater for runoff than for precipitation. Furthermore, Climate change is projected to reduce raw water quality, posing risks to drinking water quality even with conventional treatment.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the water sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
Heat increases the demand for water. Meanwhile evaporation also increases resulting in greater losses of exposed surface water. Glacial melt contribute to discharge, but reduces the overall water stock. The quality of water decreases, and the incidence of pests increases.
In general, an increased precipitation means that more water is potentially available for use.
An increase in more extreme precipitation events means a higher risk of floods. Multipurpose reservoirs will need to keep normal operation levels lower to account for the increase in flood risks. Lower Normal Operation levels mean that less water is available for downstream use when needed. Furthermore, it leads to increase of turbidity and sedimentation, less infiltration to the aquifer and increased load of parasites into reservoir and wells.
Drought events increase water demand as well as evaporation and ultimately lead to a reduction in the overall water balance.
Sector Vulnerability
The water sector in Uzbekistan is project to have more stress as result of the increased drought periods, water stress and drought risk in the eastern provinces. These factors will also influence the drinking water availability, and will be coupled with increased water demand for most sectors. Heavier precipitation rates will increase the need for increased buffer capacity. However, higher levels of evaporation will reduce the effective capacity of water reservoirs.
Transport
Rising temperatures and more extreme precipitation have clear and direct implications for the transportation sector in Uzbekistan. Temperature rises will inevitably lead to a deterioration of the road conditions, melting of the asphalts and wear on infrastructures. Extreme precipitation will also cause greater risk for flooding and damage to roadways and bridges.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the transport sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
Pavement of motorways is most vulnerable to heat. Higher temperatures in Uzbekistan will require alternative types of asphalt that are more resistant to rutting and melting. The incidence of traffic accidents strongly correlates to heat.
A shift in the seasonal precipitation and elevation is expected to increase the risk of avalanches and glacier lake breaches.
The increase in extreme precipitations events will mean that the design conditions of roadways and bridges might become inadequate. The risk of temporary or permanent disruption to transportation routes could become inevitable. Extreme precipitation is a major cause of hazards such as mudflow, flash floods and landslides, which all can disrupt infrastructure by impacting road and bridge foundation and overburdening the drainage system.
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Sector Vulnerability
Hotter temperatures will affect the transport sector in Uzbekistan by causing additional asphalt rutting on roadways, especially in the southern part of the country. Greater levels of precipitation may require drainage networks and other infrastructure such as bridges to be upgraded or reinforced to be more resilient.Â
Hazards
Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
Rising temperatures, even at high altitude, is causing glaciers to melt more rapidly, leading to new glacial lakes to be formed. These new glacial lakes can hold limited volumes before they overflow and flood downstream.Â
Precipitation is now occuring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountainous regions, elevating the risk of avalanches.
Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost to Uzbekistan under the hazards. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought and manmade activity.
Sector Vulnerability
The main hazards which are expected to become greater in Uzbekistan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are projected to take the greatest economic toll on the country. The Ferghana valley will be most impacted by hazards associated with heavier rainfall, such as flash flood, flood, mudflow and landslides. Kashkadarya and Surkhondarya provinces will be impacted mainly by greater heat. Most river basins are projected to experience increased flood risk. For the main flow of the Syr Darya, a reduced risk is expected, not accounting for all tributaries. Of significant concern is the relatively low adaptive capacity in Surkhondarya, Namangan, Fergana and Andijan provinces.
Health
The human health sector has clear links to climate variability through both direct exposure as well as indirect pathways. Obviously, negative health impacts come from extreme climate events, such as heat waves, hurricanes/storms, floods and droughts. Gradual changes of climate affecting water, food and air quality also have negative influence on human health around the world. Beyond the physical effects are issues related to mental health. Research has shown that increased numbers of extreme events can leave significant fractions of the population with PTSD-like symptoms. Although controversial, studies indicate that there is linkage between rising temperatures and increase in aggression and violence in society.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the health sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
With every degree in Celsius of temperature increase, the call into hospitals increase by approximately 2.5%. This means that the Government of Uzbekistan will need to allocate additional budget and capacity to support the health sector. The main impacts of increased heat on health conditions include increases to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a decrease in overall food safety and greater incidence of traffic accidents.
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Extreme precipitation increases the risk of pollution or contamination of drinking water supplies. In addition, the impact of hazards will increase.
Drought adds additional pressure on human health through greater incedence of dehydration and reduced availability of drinking water.
Sector Vulnerability
The health sector may as result of heat and drought, expect an increase of call into hospitals all over the country, but especially in the southern and western provinces. Also, the emergency capacity will be impacted.
Forestry
Only small portions of Uzbekistan are covered by forests (8%). Rising temperatures and heat will cause ecological zones to shift, a major cocnern for the valuable forest areas. Pest and disease could more likely afflict large swaths of forests. Similar to the impact it has on agriculture, rising temperatures will add more stress to forest growth. Furthermore, despite the fact that precipitation levels are projected to increase throughout Uzbekistan, this potential positive impact could be offset in forest areas by a greater frequency in extreme precipitation events that bring greater risk of soil erosion.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the forestry sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:
Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.
The increase in precipitation that is expected over Uzbekistan will positively affect the forest areas.
Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion. Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.
Over the long term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.
Sector Vulnerability
Forestry in highland mountainous areas will experience, as result of the heat and drought, a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas and an increase of pest and disease.