Country Profile
Key Facts & Figures
139,960 km2
Area
10.8 million
Population
7.8 million (72%)
Rural Population
3.0 million (28%)
Urban Population
77 / km2
Population Density
Geography & Population
With a territory of 139,960 km², Tajikistan is home to an estimated population of 10.8 million in 2025, giving a population density of around 77 inhabitants per km². Approximately 7.8 million people (72%) live in rural areas, while about 3.0 million (28%) reside in the main urban centers of Dushanbe, Khujand, and Bokhtar (formerly Qurghonteppa).
Economy
Tajikistan’s economy is dominated by the natural resources extraction import-export sector, industry and agriculture.
Agriculture
Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.
Land Use
Most of Tajikistan is mountainous, with economic activities focused in the valley areas. About a third of the land is devoted to agricultural activities, though only 1% is permanent crops and 28% is permanent pasture. Forest make up around 3% of the territory.
Energy Supply
Tajikistan derives most of its energy supply from fossil fuels (oil, coal and some gas) and significant hydropower facilities.
Climate Summary
Tajikistan experiences a mid-latitude continental climate, with hot summers and mild winters. The Pamir Mountain range has semiarid to polar climate, while the eastern and southern areas experience mainly dry desert conditions. The Pamir and Alaj-Turkstan ranges receive abundant snow in winter, which later feeds snowmelt into the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. The clash of air masses can cause unstable weather in the mountains, especially in the period from November to April. Warm, sub-tropical air masses can bring dust storms northward from Afghanistan, while in the valleys, a down-slope, warm and dry wind can blow. In the eastern part of the country, which is affected by the Asian monsoon, the wind can bring dust storms also in summer.
Climate Projections
Climate models make the following projections for Tajikistan’s future climate:
- Since 1940, the mean annual temperature increased by 0.3-1.2°C, with an average of 0.1-0.2°C per decade. The minimum mean temperature also increased by 0.5-2.0°C with some exceptions in high mountainous areas, where it dropped by 0.1°C. Smaller temperature increases have been noticed in higher altitudes and larger increases in lower altitudes. Urbanization has caused the near surface area temperature of large cities has increased by 1.2-1.9°C.
- The number of days with temperature equal to 40°C or over has increased in the most flat areas of the country.
- The mean annual temperatures are projected to be warmer by approximately 2°C by 2050. The months of December, January , February and June, July, and August are likely to see the most warming.
- Cold days are projected to decrease by 35 days by 2050.
- Since 1940, the annual precipitation pattern shows insignificant increase (i.e. 8% for altitudes of up to 2,500 m) and insignificant decrease (i.e. 3% in the mountainous area). The amount of precipitation in the Eastern Pamir reduced by 5 to 10%, and by 44% in Murghab. Precipitation similarly decreased in the southern lowland areas. Precipitation increased by 5 to 10% in Central Tajikistan, by 20% in the southern mountainous area, and by 5 to 30% in the mountains of northern Tajikistan, with the exception of high mountains.
- The total number of precipitation days has decreased in the country, most notably in Iskandarkul, where it has decreased by 48 days.
- The mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 5%. December, January, February and March, April May precipitation is projected to decrease by 2% and 5% respectively by 2050. June, July, August precipitation and September, October, November precipitation is projected to increase by 1% and 4%, respectively.
- Dry days are projected to increase by approximately 3 days by 2050.
- Winters are projected to be drier and summers wetter, which could result in both increased floods and droughts.
Climate Risks by Sector
Agriculture
Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
When temperatures increase past 37oC, most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature over 40°C may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists especially for Khatlon province. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest.
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.
The increase of heavy precipitation is expected to cause additional soil erosion and waterlogging, less groundwater infiltration, and therefore less effective water capacity overall. A greater risk of crop damage and failure is also anticipated.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increase.
Sector Vulnerability
Agriculture in Tajikistan may experience an overall decrease of productivity, with regional variations. Khatlon province may experience a decrease of productivity, while the Fergana valley may experience a slight rise in productivity due to greater precipitation and fewer drought events. However, measures are needed to protect soil erosion. In general, improved pasture management is required to reduce land degradation, which is compounding the impacts of climate change.Â
Energy
The energy sector is linked to climate variability and change in numerous ways. On one side, global energy production is a strong contributor to the drivers of climate change, namely through the emission of greenhouse gases. On the other side, it is also exposed to the diverse impacts of climate variability and change through changes in energy supply (e.g. disruption of operations and distribution) and demand (growing populations and evolving power needs). The consequences can be complex, yet they are often both positive and negative.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the energy sector are listed below:
Fossil fuels require water for cooling. An increase in the temperature of the water bodies will inevitably cause a decrease in cooling capacity. Furthermore, water discharged into the environment from the cooling systems will result in a higher temperature, thus increasing the risk to the natural environment. It is expected that the energy required for cooling will increase as much as 25%. Also, a reduction in generation effectivity and transmission capacity are anticipated.
More precipitation will mean more water in the rivers and increase the potential for hydropower. However, the occurrence of more extreme precipitation means that reservoirs will need to increase their ability to buffer dangerous floods, thus reducing the overall efficiency of hydropower schemes.
Due to the increased risk of flooding, normal operation levels will have to be lowered, thus reducing the overall production efficiency of hydropower schemes. Furthermore, a risk of flood may hinder energy transmission and transportation. Additionally, more intense flooding will result in greater sediment transport, water turbidity and the wear-and-tear of mechanical equipment.
Droughts limit the availability of water that is needed for cooling fossil fuel plants, thus reducing overall energy production. To account for more frequent droughts, reservoirs will need to store more water, which will affect hydropower production.
Sector Vulnerability
Energy in Tajikistan may expect a decrease in cooling capacity for fossil energy. Tajikistan’s significant hydropower facilities may temporarily augment their productivity thanks to greater glacier melt, but may be otherwise offset by heavy precipitation in the mountainous region with significant runoff that cannot be harvested effectively. For the southern and western provinces, the transmission capacity will be negatively influenced by the increase of heat.
Water
Over the past century, substantial growth in population, industrial and agricultural activities, and living standards have exacerbated water stress in many parts of the world, especially in semi-arid and arid regions. Climate change, however, will regionally exacerbate or offset the effects of population pressure for the next decades. It is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions. In contrast, water resources are projected to increase at high latitudes. Proportional changes are typically one to three times greater for runoff than for precipitation. Furthermore, Climate change is projected to reduce raw water quality, posing risks to drinking water quality even with conventional treatment.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the water sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
Heat increases the demand for water. Meanwhile evaporation also increases resulting in greater losses of exposed surface water. Glacial melt contribute to discharge, but reduces the overall water stock. The quality of water decreases, and the incidence of pests increases.
In general, an increased precipitation means that more water is potentially available for use. This increased rainfall is, however, ofset by the increased evaporation due to greater levels of heat.Â
An increase in more extreme precipitation events means a higher risk of floods. Multipurpose reservoirs will need to keep normal operation levels lower to account for the increase in flood risks. Lower Normal Operation levels mean that less water is available for downstream use when needed. Furthermore, it leads to increase of turbidity and sedimentation, less infiltration to the aquifer and increased load of parasites into reservoir and wells.
Drought events increase water demand, but also evaporation, and ultimately to a reduction in the overall water balance.
Sector Vulnerability
The water sector in Tajikistan may expect increased stress as result of greater drought risk that will occur mainly in Khatlon province. The increased heavy precipitation will intensify this impact.
Transport
An increase in temperature and extreme precipitation has clear and direct impacts on the transportation sector in Tajikistan. The rise in temperatures, especially in the southern part of Tajikistan will inevitably cause a deterioration of the road conditions, rutting of the asphalts and wear on infrastructures. Extreme precipitation will also cause the risk for flooding and the risk of temporary or permanent damages to roads and bridges.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the transportation sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
Road pavement is most vulnerable to heat. Higher temperatures in Tajikistan will require alternative types of asphalt that are more resistant to damage caused by rutting and melting. The incidence of traffic accidents strongly correlates to heat.
A shift in the seasonal precipitation and elevation is expected to increase the risk of avalanches and glacier lake breaches.
The increase in extreme precipitations events will mean that the design conditions of roads and bridges might become inadequate. The risk of temporary or permanent disruption to transportation routes could become inevitable. Extreme precipitation is a major cause of hazards like mudflow, flash floods and landslides, which all disrupt infrastructure by putting an impact on road and bridge foundation and causing an overload of the drainage system.
N/A
Sector Vulnerability
The transport sector may experience as result of increased heat increased asphalt melt, especially in the southern part of the country. Infrastructure for drainage and works like bridges may need to be redesigned to adapt to increased levels of precipitation. Greater risk of heavy precipitation is also expected to increase the risk of hazards.
Hazards
Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
With the increase in temperature as one of the causes, also on high altitude, the glaciers are melting, increasing formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood
Precipitations is now happening earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains thus increasing the risk for avalanches.
Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.
Sector Vulnerability
The main hazards that are expected to increase in Tajikistan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs to GNI. More intense heavy precipitation will create greater risk of hazards like mudflow, flash flood, flooding, landslides and rockfall. Most river basins in Sughd, Republican Subordinate and Khatlon may experience increased flood risk. Rising temperatures in the mountain ranges will increase the risk of glacier lake outburst and inundation. The seasonal shift in precipitation to spring in combination with earlier spring temperatures will increase the avalanche risk. The low adaptive capacity in Khatlon is a significant concern under these conditions, and needs additional attention.
Health
The human health sector has clear links to climate variability through both direct exposure as well as indirect pathways. Obviously, negative health impacts come from extreme climate events, such as heat waves, hurricanes/storms, floods and droughts. Gradual changes of climate affecting water, food and air quality also have negative influence on human health around the world. Beyond the physical effects are issues related to mental health. Research has shown that increased numbers of extreme events can leave significant fractions of the population with PTSD-like symptoms. Although controversial, studies indicate that there is linkage between rising temperatures and increase in aggression and violence in society.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the health sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
With every degree in Celsius of temperature increase, the call into hospitals increase by approximately 2.5%. This means that the Government of Tajikistan will need to allocate additional budget and capacity to support the health sector. The main impacts of increased heat on health conditions include increases to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a decrease in overall food safety and greater incidence of traffic accidents.
N/A
Extreme precipitation events will create a greater risk of pollution or contamination of drinking water supplies. In addition, the impact of hazards will increase.
Drought adds additional pressure on human health through more dehydration and reduced availability of drinking water.
Sector Vulnerability
The health sector may as result of heat and drought, expect an increase of call into hospitals all over the country, but especially in the southern and western provinces. Also, the emergency capacity will be impacted.
Forestry
Only 3% of Tajikistan is covered by forests. The increase in heat will cause a shift in the ecological zones of the country and the likelihood that pest / diseases destroy large swaths of forest areas. Similar to the agriculture sector, rising temperatures will cause stress in the growth of the forests. Furthermore, although the expected increase in precipitation over Tajikistan might provide a positive impact, the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events will equally negatively impact these parts of the country due to flooding that cause greater soil erosion in the forest areas.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the forestry sector in Tajikistan are listed below:
Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.
The increase in precipitation that is expected over Tajikistan could have a net positive effect on the forest areas.
Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion. Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.
Over the long-term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.
Sector Vulnerability
Though forests only comprise 3% of Tajikistan’s overall territory, forestry is very important for disaster risk reduction. As a result of more heat and drought, Tajikistan stands to see a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas (especially in the mountains) and an increase of pests and disease.