Country Profile
Key Facts & Figures
469,930 km2
Area
7.62 million
Population
3.15 million (41.5%)
Rural Population
4.47 million (58.5%)
Urban Population
16 / km2
Population Density
Geography & Population
With a territory of about 469,930 km², Turkmenistan is one of the largest countries in the sub-region. The estimated population in 2025 is 7.62 million, giving a population density of around 16 inhabitants per km². Approximately 3.15 million people (41.5%) live in rural areas, while about 4.47 million (58.5%) reside in urban centers.
Economy
Turkmenistan’s economy is based largely on intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and significant extractive industries, namely natural gas and oil resources. Agriculture accounts for over 9% of national GNI, employing nearly half of the country’s workforce. Exports of fossil fuels make up about 25% of Turkmenistan’s GNI.
Agriculture
The two largest crops are cotton, most of which is produced for export, and wheat, which is domestically consumed. Other minor crops are produced in the oases areas, such as citrus, dates and other fiber crops.
Land Use
Turkmenistan utilizes most of its arable land for agricultural activities, which account for over 9 per cent of GNI. The desert of western Turkmenistan is an enormous and almost waterless expanse. Forest areas make up nearly 9 per cent of territory, and have been consistent in coverage over recent decades.
Energy Supply
Turkmenistan bases it’s energy supply predominantly on natural gas and oil. The bulk of natural gas is sold and exported to neighboring China. Virtually 0% of hydropower capacity has been utilized or developed.
Climate Summary
Situated east of the Caspian Sea and Iran and covered predominantly by desert relief, Turkmenistan has a severe continental climate, with hot, dry summers and mild, dry winters. Most of the country exhibits great fluctuations in temperatures during the day and throughout the year. The average annual temperature ranges between 14–16 °C, though the temperature seldom falls below 35 °C during summer and rises to 50 °C in the shade in the southeast in Karakum, and as low as −33 °C in the winter in the south in Serhetabat.
Precipitation occurs mainly in the spring and mostly in the eastern mountain regions where it reaches 300-400 mm/year. By contrast, the vast desert areas in the northwest receive only about 80 mm/year.
Climate Projections
Climate models make the following projections for Turkmenistan’s future climate:
- Mean annual temperature has increased by 1.4°С since the 1950’s.
- Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2°С by 2040.
- The rate of temperature change will intensify after 2040. Calculations show the rise of temperature from 2-3°C to 6-7°C by 2100.
- The amount of precipitation during the past 50 years has slightly increased, particularly in spring months, with the lowest precipitation values being observed in summer.
- Mean annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 8-17% from 2040-2100.
Climate Risks by Sector
Agriculture
Food security in Turkmenistan will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
When temperatures rise above 37oC, most crops begin to experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature above 40 °C may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists for all regions of Turkmenistan. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest. There will also begin to see a change in which crops are suitable in certain areas.Â
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially offset the positive impacts for the sector.
The increase of heavy precipitation will cause additional erosion and waterlogging and contribute to lesser rates of groundwater infiltration. Ultimately, these conditions will cause a drop in effective water capacity and a greater risk of damage or failure of crops.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increase the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increase.
Sector Vulnerability
The agriculture sector in Turkmenistan will be the hardest impacted by climate exposure in Dashoguz and Mary provinces, with regional variations. The extended duration of drought periods, in combination with more heavy precipitation, are the major causes. More severe heat, especially when temperatures reach over 37-40oC will also impact agricultural production. Crops like wheat that have a lower stress threshold will suffer the first. As most arable farming is irrigated and reliant upon water supply, livestock is projected to be significantly affected.
Energy
The energy sector in Turkmenistan is linked to climate variability and change in numerous ways. Global energy production is a strong contributor to the drivers of climate change, namely through the greenhouse gass emission. The energy sector is also exposed to the diverse impacts of climate variability and change through changes in energy supply (e.g. disruption of operations and distribution) and demand (growing populations and evolving power needs). The consequences can be complex, yet they are often a mix of positive and negative.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the energy sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
Fossil fuels require water for cooling. An increase in the temperature of the water bodies will inevitably cause a decrease in cooling capacity. Furthermore, water discharged into the environment from the cooling systems will result in a higher temperature, thus increasing the risk to the natural environment. It is expected that the energy required for cooling will increase as much as 25%. Also, a reduction in generation effectivity and transmission capacity are anticipated.
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Due to the increased risk of flooding, normal operation levels will have to be lowered. Furthermore, flood risks may hinder energy transmission and transportation. The more intense flooding will result in greater sediment transport, water turbidity and the wear-and-tear of mechanical equipment.
Droughts limit the availability of water required for cooling fossil fuel plants, thus reducing overall energy production. To account for more frequent droughts, reservoirs will need to retain more water, which will affect any hydropower production or development.
Sector Vulnerability
Energy in Turkmenistan may expect decreased cooling capacity for fossil energy, hydropower on the Amu Darya may become more productive in the short- to medium-term thanks to water received from glacier melt, but these gains may be offset in the long-term by more severe precipitation. For the southern and western provinces, the transmission capacity will be negatively influenced by hotter temperatures.Â
Water
Over the past century, substantial growth in population, industrial and agricultural activities, and living standards have exacerbated water stress in many parts of the world, especially in semi-arid and arid regions. Climate change, however, will regionally exacerbate or offset the effects of population pressure for the next decades. It is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions. In contrast, water resources are projected to increase at high latitudes. Proportional changes are typically one to three times greater for runoff than for precipitation. Furthermore, Climate change is projected to reduce raw water quality, posing risks to drinking water quality even with conventional treatment.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the water sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
Heat increases the demand for water. Meanwhile evaporation also increases resulting in greater losses of exposed surface water. Glacial melt contribute to discharge, but reduces the overall water stock. The quality of water decreases, and the incidence of pests increases.
In general, an increased precipitation means that more water is potentially available for use.
An increase in more extreme precipitation events means a higher risk of floods. Multipurpose reservoirs will need to keep normal operation levels lower to account for the increase in flood risks. Lower Normal Operation levels mean that less water is available for downstream use when needed. Furthermore, it leads to increase of turbidity and sedimentation, less infiltration to the aquifer and increased load of parasites into reservoir and wells.
Drought events increase water demand, but also evaporation, and ultimately to a reduction in the overall water balance.
Sector Vulnerability
The water sector in Turkmenistan may expect greater stress as a result of increased risk of drought. Heavier precipitation in more varied timeframes will compound this impact. More heat will also create more water demand, resulting in a negative water balance and greater water scarcity.
Transport
An increase in temperature and extreme precipitation has clear and direct impacts on the transportation sector in Turkmenistan. Rising temperatures will inevitably cause a deterioration of the road conditions, rutting of the asphalts and wear on infrastructure. More extreme precipitation will also lead to a greater risk of flooding and the risk of temporary or permanent damage to roadways and bridges.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the transport sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
Pavement of roads is most vulnerable to heat. Higher temperatures will require roadways to be paved with alternative types of asphalt that are more resistant to rutting and melting. The incidence of traffic accidents strongly correlates to heat.
A shift in the seasonal precipitation and elevation is expected to increase the risk of avalanches and glacier lake breaches.
The increase in extreme precipitations events will mean that the design conditions of roads and bridges might become inadequate. The risk of temporary or permanent disruption to transportation routes could become inevitable. Extreme precipitation is a major cause of hazards like mudflow, flash floods and landslides, which all disrupt infrastructure by putting an impact on road and bridge foundation and causing an overload of the drainage system.
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Sector Vulnerability
The transport sector in Turkmenistan will be affected by climate change in a number of ways. Higher temperatures will lead to more asphalt rutting, especially in the western and southern part of the country where the heat will increase the most. Drainage networks and bridges may need to be re-design to strengthen resilience to heavier precipitation and heat.Â
Hazards
Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
With rising temperatures at even higher altitude, the glaciers are melting, leading to the formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood.
Precipitation events are now occurring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains, thus increasing the risk for avalanches.
Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards in Turkmenistan. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for a drought spell is severe. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.
Sector Vulnerability
The main hazards that are expected to increase are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs. Issues is that these are mostly not recognized as hazard as the responsibility is firstly not under Emergency Situations but under other sectoral institutions like agriculture. North western provinces will be impacted most by drought, south eastern provinces most by extreme precipitation. Most river basins may experience increased flood risk. Syr dary, Turgay, Iskim and Uralsk River Basins in contrary, may expect reduced flood risk.
Health
The human health sector has clear links to climate variability through both direct exposure as well as indirect pathways. Obviously, negative health impacts come from extreme climate events, such as heat waves, hurricanes/storms, floods and droughts. Gradual changes of climate affecting water, food and air quality also have negative influence on human health around the world. Beyond the physical effects are issues related to mental health. Research has shown that increased numbers of extreme events can leave significant fractions of the population with PTSD-like symptoms. Although controversial, studies indicate that there is linkage between rising temperatures and increase in aggression and violence in society.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the health sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
With every degree in Celsius of temperature increase, the call into hospitals increase by approximately 2.5%. This means that the Government of Turkmenistan will need to allocate additional budget and capacity to support the health sector. The main impacts of increased heat on health conditions include increases to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a decrease in overall food safety and greater incidence of traffic accidents.
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Extreme precipitation increases the risk of pollution or contamination of drinking water supplies. In addition, the impact of hazards will rise.
Drought adds additional pressure on human health through more dehydration and reduced availability of drinking water.
Sector Vulnerability
The health sector may as result of heat and drought, expect an increase of call into hospitals all over the country, but especially in the southern and western provinces, with Balkan and Mary province as first impacted, followed by Ahal province. Also the emergency capacity will be impacted.
Forestry
Turkmenistan has limited forest coverage (9%). Hotter temperatures will cause a shift in the ecological zones of the country and the likelihood that pest / diseases damage large swaths of forest areas. Similar to the agriculture sector, greater temperatures will hamper forest growth. Furthermore, although the expected increase in precipitation over Turkmenistan might provide a positive impact, the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events will equally negatively impact these parts of the country, as the risk of soil erosion caused by flooding will also increase.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the forestry sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.
The increase in precipitation that is expected throughout Turkmenistan will positively affect the forest areas.
Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion. Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.
Over the long-term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.
Sector Vulnerability
Forestry in Turkmenistan will experience a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas (especially in the mountainous regions) and an elevate risk of pests and disease as result hotter temperatures and pronounced drought periods.