Country Profile
Key Facts & Figures
199,950 km2
Area
7.3 million
Population
4.35 million (59%)
Rural Population
2.95 million (41%)
Urban Population
36.5 / km2
Population Density
Geography & Population
With a territory of 199,950 km², Kyrgyzstan is one of the largest countries in the sub-region. The population, estimated at about 7.3 million in 2025, gives a density of around 36.5 inhabitants per km². Approximately 4.35 million people (59%) live in rural areas, while about 2.95 million (41%) reside in urban centers.
Economy
Kyrgyzstan’s economy is dominated by agriculture (12-14%) and mineral extraction industries. Most of the labor force is employed in agriculture (48%).
Agriculture
The agriculture sector produces mainly animal fodder, wheat, barley and maize. Other minor crops include tobacco, cotton and potatoes.
Land Use
The mountainous nation has a small amount of arable land (6.7%), of which it devotes over 55% to agricultural activities.
Energy Supply
The Kyrgyz Republic derives most of its energy supply from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas). Renewable energy production is mainly hydro power.
Climate Summary
The climate in the Kyrgyz Republic is as varied with dry continental to polar in the Tien Shan Mountains, subtropical in the southwestern Fergana Valley, and temperate in the northern foothill zone. The valley-sub-mountain zone (from 900-1,200 m) experiences hot summers, snowless and temperate winters, and almost zero precipitation. The mountain zone (from 900–1,200 to 2,000–2,200 m) is characterized by a temperate climate, which has warm summers and cold, snowy winters. The high-mountain zone (from 2,000–2,200 to 3,000–3,500 m) is cooler in the summer and has relatively cold, snowless winters, with temperatures ranging from well below zero to 16°C. The nival belt zone (from 3,500 m and higher) has a polar climate and is covered by numerous snowfields and glaciers. According to its own Second National Communication, only 20% of the country is considered habitable year round.
Climate Projections
Climate models make the following projections for Kyrgyzstan’s future climate:
- The air temperature on the territory of Kyrgyz Republic has increased by 0.8°C over the last century.
- The Central Asia region is expected to experience an increase in mean annual temperature on average of 2°C by 2020 and between 4°C and 5°C by 2100. It is projected that Kyrgyzstan will see a decrease in annual runoff by 12% by 2020, with a potential three-fold increase by 2050. These changes will result in increased incidence of drought, heat waves, and eventual crop losses.
- Summertime diurnal temperature ranges are projected to increase, suggesting a pronounced increase in maximum temperatures relative to minimum temperatures.
- Nearly 1/3 of the glacial area in the Central Asia region has disappeared since 1930. Because glaciers provide a large proportion of the water flow to the major rivers of Central Asia, the loss of these glaciers has severe consequences for the future of the Kyrgyz Republic.
- According to the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report, an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation are projected for Central Asia. The general perception within the Kyrgyz Republic, that water resources for agricultural areas are at high risk to suffer from droughts, requires authentication.
- A significant reduction in the country’s glaciers and snowfields is projected, with major implications for the country’s water resources.Â
Climate Risks by Sector
Agriculture
Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Changes to the climate have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
When temperatures increase past 37oC most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature over 40oC may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists for the most parts of Kyrgyzstan. Such risk exists for mostly northern Kyrgyzstan. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest.Â
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.
The increase of heavy precipitation causes additional erosion and waterlogging, with less groundwater recharge and ultimately lead to reduced water capacity. Extremes in precipitation will also increase the risk of crop damage / failure.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increases.
Sector Vulnerability
Agriculture in Kyrgyzstan will experience a variation of impacts at regional level. The most vulnerable regions are Chuy, Issyk-Kul and the eastern part of Jalal-Abad and Osh, where the impact is expected to be greatest. Batken and Osh province could very well experience an increase in agricultural productivity thanks to increased levels of precipitation and less drought risk. This will not only impact the producers, but also on the processing industry, trade and consumers.
Energy
The Kyrgyz energy sector is linked to climate variability and change in numerous ways. On the one hand, global energy production is a strong contributor to the drivers of climate change, namely through the emission of greenhouse gases. Additionally, the energy sector is also exposed to the diverse impacts of climate variability and change through changes in the energy supply (e.g. disruption of operations and distribution) and demand (growing populations and evolving power needs). The consequences can be complex, yet they are often both positive and negative.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the energy sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
Fossil fuels require water for cooling. An increase in the temperature of the water bodies will inevitably cause a decrease in cooling capacity. Furthermore, water discharged into the environment from the cooling systems will result in a higher temperature, thus increasing the risk to the natural environment. It is expected that the energy required for cooling will increase as much as 25%. Also, a reduction in generation effectivity and transmission capacity are anticipated.
More precipitation will mean more water in the rivers and increase the potential for hydropower. However, the occurrence of more extreme precipitation means that reservoirs will need to increase their ability to buffer dangerous floods, thus reducing the overall efficiency of hydropower schemes.
Due to the increased risk of flooding, normal operation levels will have to be lowered, thus reducing the overall production efficiency of hydro energy schemes. Furthermore, flood risks may hinder energy transmission and transportation. Additionally, more intense flooding will result in greater sediment transport, water turbidity and the wear-and-tear of mechanical equipment.
Drought events limit the availability of water required for cooling fossil fuel plants, thus reducing the overall energy production. To account for more frequent droughts, reservoirs will need to retain more water, which will affect hydro power production.
Sector Vulnerability
The energy sector in Kyrgyzstan may expect a decrease in cooling capacity for fossil energy. Conversely, hydropower may experience an temporary increase in productivity due to glacier melt, which will subsequently offset by increased heavy precipitation occuring in the mountainous areas where a buffer capacity is demanded. For the provinces Chuy and Osh, the transmission capacity will be negatively influenced by the increase of heat.
Water
Over the past century, substantial growth in population, industrial and agricultural activities, and living standards have exacerbated water stress in many parts of the world, especially in semi-arid and arid regions. Climate change, however, will regionally exacerbate or offset the effects of population pressure for the next decades. It is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions. In contrast, water resources are projected to increase at high latitudes. Proportional changes are typically one to three times greater for runoff than for precipitation. Furthermore, Climate change is projected to reduce raw water quality, posing risks to drinking water quality even with conventional treatment.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the water sector are listed below:
Heat increases the demand for water. Meanwhile evaporation also increases resulting in greater losses of exposed surface water. Glacial melt contribute to discharge, but reduces the overall water stock. The quality of water decreases, and the incidence of pests increases.
In general, an increased precipitation means that more water is potentially available for use.
An increase in more extreme precipitation events means a higher risk of floods. Multipurpose reservoirs will need to keep normal operation levels lower to account for the increase in flood risks. Lower Normal Operation levels mean that less water is available for downstream use when needed. Furthermore, it leads to increase of turbidity and sedimentation, less infiltration to the aquifer and increased load of parasites into reservoir and wells.
Drought events increase water demand, but also evaporation, and ultimately to a reduction in the overall water balance.
Sector Vulnerability
The water sector in Kyrgyzstan may anticipate additional stress as a result of the drought risk that occurs mainly in the northern provinces. The increased heavy precipitation will intensify this impact. This will also impact on drinking water supply with inflow in open water sources and connected drainage and sewage systems.
Transport
An increase in temperature and extreme precipitation has clear and direct impacts on the transportation sector. Temperature increases in the middle and southern part of Kazakhstan will inevitably cause a deterioration of the road conditions, melting of the asphalts and wear of the infrastructures. Extreme precipitation will also cause the risk for flooding and the risk of temporary or permanent damages to roads and bridges.
Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the transport sector are listed below:
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Pavement of roads is most vulnerable to heat. Higher temperature will require other and new types of asphalt, more resistant against damage caused by rutting and melting. The incidence of traffic accidents strongly correlates to heat.
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A shift in the seasonal precipitation and elevation is expected to increase the risk of avalanches and glacier lake breaches.
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The increase in extreme precipitations events will mean that the design conditions of roads and bridges might become inadequate. The risk of temporary or permanent disruption to transportation routes could become inevitable. Extreme precipitation is a major cause of hazards like mudflow, flash floods and landslides, which all disrupt infrastructure by putting an impact on road and bridge foundation and causing an overload of the drainage system.
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Sector Vulnerability
The transport sector in Kyrgyzstan will be affected by increasing temperatures and asphalt melt, particularly in the northern parts of the country. Infrastructure for drainage and works like bridges may need to be redesigned to adapt to increased levels of precipitation.
Hazards
Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
With the increase in temperature as one of the causes, also on high altitude, the glaciers are melting, increasing formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood.
Rainfall events are now occurring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains, thus increasing the risk for avalanches.
Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.
Sector Vulnerability
The main hazards that are expected to increase in Kyrgyzstan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs. These hazards are, for the most part, recognized by, and fall under the purview of sectoral ministries such as agriculture. Northern provinces will be impacted mostly by drought, while the western provinces will be affected mostly by extreme precipitation, which will cause additional risk of hazards like mudflow, landslide, flash flood and flooding. The areas of Jalal-Abad, Naryn and Batken have a low adaptive capacity to deal with such hazards, and therefore need additional attention.
Health
The human health sector has clear links to climate variability through both direct exposure as well as indirect pathways. Obviously, negative health impacts come from extreme climate events, such as heat waves, hurricanes/storms, floods and droughts. Gradual changes of climate affecting water, food and air quality also have negative influence on human health around the world. Beyond the physical effects are issues related to mental health. Research has shown that increased numbers of extreme events can leave significant fractions of the population with PTSD-like symptoms. Although controversial, studies indicate that there is linkage between rising temperatures and increase in aggression and violence in society.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the health sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
With every degree in Celsius of temperature increase, the call into hospitals increase by approximately 2.5%. This means that the Government of Kyrgyzstan will need to allocate additional budget and capacity to support the health sector. The main impacts of increased heat on health conditions include increases to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as a decrease in overall food safety and greater incidence of traffic accidents.Â
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Extreme precipitation increases the risk of pollution or contamination of drinking water supplies. In addition, the impact of hazards will increase.
Drought adds additional pressure on human health through more dehydration and reduced availability of drinking water.
Sector Vulnerability
The health sector in Kyrgyzstan will be impacted by increased heat and drought events, which will ultimately lead to increases in hospitilization and greater demand on health and emergency systems. The northern and western provinces are particularly vulnerable in the Health sector.
Forestry
Many parts of Kyrgyzstan are covered by forests (5%). The increase in heat will cause a shift in the ecological zones of the Country and the likelihood that pest / diseases attacking large swath of forest areas. Like for the agriculture sector, an increase in temperature will cause stress in the growth of the forests. Furthermore, although the expected increase in precipitation over Kyrgyzstan might provide a positive impact, the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events will equally negatively impact these parts of the country as risk of erosion due to flooding will also increase.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the forestry sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.
The increase in precipitation that is expected over Kyrgyzstan will positively affect the forest areas.
Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion. Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.
Over the long-term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.
Sector Vulnerability
Forestry in Kyrgyzstan will experience, as result of the heat and drought, a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas (especially in the mountains) and an increase of pests and diseases. The most vulnerable areas are the northern provinces of Chuy and Issyk Kul.