Glaciers in Central Asia are melting faster than the global average. The basins where the glaciers are located fill with meltwater, resulting in the formation of a glacial lake. Such bodies of water also form behind natural dams called moraines. These loose barriers consist of rocks and soil left by the glacier, or the ice itself. Moraines are unstable and easily eroded. As the glacier melts and the volume of water in the lake increases, the pressure on the dam increases, causing cracks to form.

Ile-Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan. Photo: GLOFCA.

When glacial lakes burst, they cause floods and mudflows. These flows have enormous destructive power. They threaten human lives, infrastructure, and the economy and can travel hundreds of kilometers, making them a transboundary problem. Limited capacity for volume monitoring and a large number of potentially hazardous zones make glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) one of the most serious climate-related threats in Central Asia.

 

According to researchers published in the journal Nature Communications, about a million people in high-altitude regions of Asia live within 10 km of dangerous glacial lakes and are at risk of flooding caused by their outbursts.

Central Asia is home to over 4,500 glacial lakes, many of which formed recently due to accelerated glacier melt. Their increasing volume increases the likelihood of catastrophic outbursts, which can trigger floods, avalanches, and landslides.

In Kyrgyzstan alone, nearly 2,000 glacial lakes are known to exist, of which 368 are considered potentially hazardous. The Ministry of Emergency Situations closely monitors 65 lakes classified as Category I and II glacial lake hazard.

The risks are not abstract: on June 27, 2024, the Takyr-Tor mountain lake in Kyrgyzstan burst, forcing the evacuation of 950 people.

According to Kamoliddini Nazirzoda, Deputy Head of the Glaciology Center at the Tajikistan Hydrometeorology Agency, the Said Nafisi Glacier (formerly Baralmos), located in Tajikistan, has become extremely unstable in recent years. Lakes of varying sizes form on its surface. During the warm season, these lakes partially burst. In the past five years alone , 23 such incidents have been recorded. Three major glacier bursts occurred last summer: on July 14 and 22, and on August 10. Each glacier burst is accompanied by mudflows, blockages in the Surkhob River, and damage to the Vahdat-Rasht-Lyakhsh international highway near the border with Kyrgyzstan. Road restoration work can only begin within 10-15 days, as the rocks remain water-saturated and unstable.

Baralmos Glacier, Tajikistan. Photo: GLOFCA.

But even without glacial lake outbursts, melting ice increases the risk of mudflows. Almost the entire territory of Kyrgyzstan is considered mudflow-prone. In 2024, the country recorded a record number of mudflows in the past three decades—more than 370 events from April to August. As a result, 25 people died, and damage exceeded 2 billion soms (over $22.8 million).

In Tajikistan, 256 natural disasters were recorded in just three weeks  —from May 3 to 26, 2024— causing damages exceeding 80 million somoni ($8.5 million). Overall, 532 incidents occurred over the course of the year, destroying 164 residential buildings, six schools and kindergartens, approximately 300 kilometers of roads, and 66 bridges.

Uzbekistan also has local glacial lakes. For example, in the upper reaches of the Pskem River are Lakes Shavurkool and Ikhnach, whose combined volume exceeds 4.5 million cubic meters of water—the equivalent of 2,000 Olympic swimming pools. A potential outburst threatens nearly 2,000 residents living in the middle reaches of the river. Furthermore, this area is also susceptible to other exogenous processes, such as mudflows, landslides, and rockfalls.

The scale and frequency of such events compel specialists and international projects to seek adaptation measures to reduce risks to the population and infrastructure.

Despite the accumulated experience in disaster risk reduction in mountainous areas, glacial lake outburst disasters require more coordinated regional efforts, as they often have a transboundary nature.

Representatives of the scientific community, government agencies from Central Asian countries, and international organizations discussed increasing the resilience of rural populations to the threat of glacier flooding at a conference on glacier monitoring in the context of climate change. The event took place on September 16 and 17 at Green University, reports a Gazeta correspondent.

The importance of public awareness

Residents of mountainous regions often don’t even know that their areas are at high risk of mudflows and glacial lake outburst floods , experts noted. Many ignore SMS alerts from the Ministry of Emergency Situations, risking their lives. In emergency situations, people don’t always know evacuation routes. Due to a lack of information, there have been cases of local residents destroying specially constructed water drainage channels. These gaps in awareness make the population even more vulnerable to natural hazards.

This is why experts emphasize the need to develop early warning systems and work with communities. This task is being addressed by the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Central Asia (GLOFCA) regional project , which aims to reduce FLOO risks through early warning systems, increased community preparedness, and regional cooperation. The project is being implemented by the UNESCO Regional Office in Almaty with the support of the Adaptation Fund. Currently, the project is focused on seven priority valleys: Esik and Talgar in Kazakhstan, Ala-Archa and Ton-Tosor in Kyrgyzstan, the Baralmos Glacier region in Tajikistan, and Pskem and Tepar in Uzbekistan.

Mountains of Tajikistan.

In each country, the project works directly with relevant agencies. In Uzbekistan, these are the Center for Glacial Geology of the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, the Research Hydrometeorological Institute (NIGMI), and the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change.

Diana Aripkhanova, GLOFCA project coordinator, noted that it is important to work directly with communities when it comes to risk reduction. To this end, the project team is conducting surveys and polls to determine the level of awareness among mountain residents.

Special attention is paid to a gender approach. “During meetings with rural residents, it’s mostly men who speak to us, while women remain silent—this is due to cultural differences. Therefore, we began holding separate meetings with women and children and identified additional issues and concerns. For example, women raised the question of what to do for people with disabilities ,” Aripkhanova explained.

It’s also important to consider the residents’ knowledge. “We learned that during mudflows, local residents traditionally move higher into the mountains. Therefore, when developing training and evacuation routes, we try to take this knowledge and specifics into account,” the expert added.

During the training, people are taught what glacial lake outburst floods and mudflows are, why they occur, and how they proceed. They are also taught pre- and post-emergency procedures, as well as how to prepare an emergency kit.

Experience shows that after effective information campaigns, the public begins to propose solutions themselves. In Kazakhstan, for example, residents requested the construction of a dam to protect against flooding.

Information as the main resource

Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior researcher at the International Institute of Water Management, also noted that information is becoming one of the main needs of the rural population today.

“Even 20 years ago, when I traveled to mountainous regions and spoke with farmers, the first thing they said was: we need equipment, we need mineral fertilizers. And recently, in Kazakhstan, in Zhanguzkum, we asked farmers what they lacked most. And everyone answered: information. They need weather forecasts, an understanding of how the situation is changing, so they know what to expect tomorrow and when to go out to the fields ,” the expert said.

According to him, this demonstrates that rural residents have a genuine demand for scientific research results. “While it was previously thought that farmers needed to be taught how to farm, now they know everything themselves. They need knowledge about the climate and changing conditions in order to adapt.”

Abdullaev emphasized the importance of translating scientific data into accessible formats and building coordination between researchers, government agencies, and local communities. Local authorities—mahallas—should play a special role in this process, as they are the ones people trust the most.

“We’re all involved in developing national climate and disaster risk reduction strategies. But local programs should also emerge—for specific villages or auls. After all, that’s where droughts, flooding, and real losses occur. Therefore, the next step is to shift the focus to addressing local issues by specific people and on the ground,” the expert concluded.

Peculiarities of glacial lakes in Central Asia

Iskandar Abdullaev explained to Gazeta that , unlike those in the Himalayas or the Andes, Central Asian glacial lakes are smaller but more dynamic. They form and expand quickly, making monitoring and risk assessment significantly more difficult: it’s impossible to predict in advance whether a lake will remain stable or disappear, or to estimate the magnitude of a potential flood if it breaks through.

The high mountain location and limited access to these bodies of water create additional difficulties. Even with detailed research, there are no guarantees, as the lakes remain too dynamic.

“Today the lake is here, but tomorrow it might be gone. Or, conversely, it’s rapidly expanding, and we don’t always know the exact risk it poses,” the expert noted.

Abdullaev emphasizes that there are no precise forecasts of how many, where, and in what volume new lakes will appear. “Only one trend is clear: glaciers continue to melt, which means the formation of glacial lakes and outburst floods are inevitable,” he added.

A lake at the foot of the Baralmos Glacier, Tajikistan. Photo: GLOFCA.

Moreover, many lakes in the region form behind weak moraines or melting ice dams, which is not always captured by satellite monitoring. They can quickly fill and burst without warning, especially after heavy rainfall or extreme heat.

In these circumstances, the focus is not so much on prevention as on adaptation. The primary objective is to strengthen the resilience of rural communities to mitigate the damage from future disasters, as well as to foster regional cooperation.

Monitoring

To reduce risks, Central Asian countries are investing in early warning systems—satellite data, river flow sensors, local monitoring, and automated alarms. Timely warnings about potential flooding enable better planning for the protection of populations and infrastructure.

For example, in Kyrgyzstan, Lake Akpai formed in just one year (August 2020 – August 2021), holding a volume of 300,000 cubic meters of water—the equivalent of 120 Olympic swimming pools. It was located behind unstable glacial deposits, posing a risk of outburst.

Thanks to preliminary surveys, authorities identified the risk early and restricted tourist access. When the rupture occurred in August 2021 , infrastructure was damaged, but no casualties were reported.

One of the key objectives of the regional GLOFCA project is also monitoring glacial lakes. Specialists use machine learning methods and satellite radar imagery: the Lake Mapping Toolbox allows for year-round monitoring and regular data updates.

Photo: GLOFCA.

Furthermore, at least one early warning system is being installed in every country. “Our sensors and detectors transmit data directly to Hydrometeorology, which then forwards the information to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Then, the on-duty officer on-site assesses the situation and determines whether there is a threat to people,” Diana Aripkhanova told Gazeta.

However, according to Iskandar Abdullaev, it is difficult to make accurate forecasts for glaciers.

“We can predict that a given glacier will melt by a certain percentage next year. But that’s not a guarantee. All models require time and large amounts of data. Furthermore, these are high-altitude areas where observations are extremely difficult. In most cases, we are forced to use remote sensing. It’s a good method, but it’s no substitute for direct access to the field.”

Involvement of local population

Last year, the GLOFCA project installed weather stations for schools in Pskem and Tepar. Following this , schoolchildren received training: they now know how to collect data and conduct observations independently.

“The students measure air temperature, record precipitation using a rain gauge, and then make their own forecasts and identify trends,” project coordinator Diana Aripkhanova told Gazeta. “This develops their understanding of processes and analytical skills.”

Photo: GLOFCA.

Abror Gafurov, a researcher at the German Research Center for Geosciences, explained that scientists are also increasingly engaging local residents in snow monitoring, as weather station coverage remains insufficient. Volunteers submit snow depth data, photographs, and geolocation information via a dedicated Telegram bot.

Over the past year, residents of Central Asia have submitted nearly a thousand reports. This data helps refine satellite measurements and, for the first time, compile detailed snow cover maps. “The agreement with satellite data was 82%. This is an excellent indicator and a clear example of how mountain residents can play a significant role in improving forecast accuracy,” the expert noted.

Adaptation measures

According to Diana Aripkhanova, in addition to monitoring, GLOFCA is also developing adaptation measures. For example, in Tajikistan, they are building additional infrastructure to connect residents of remote villages with the outside world during mudflows.

The expert explained that in the area of ​​the Baralmos Glacier, severe flooding regularly blocks the main international highway, leaving local residents cut off from the city.

“As an adaptation measure, we are developing an alternative route there so that people do not end up isolated ,” she explained.

Other measures include tree planting. “As early as October, we will be planting trees together with residents in our pilot areas in Uzbekistan. This helps strengthen the soil and reduces the risk of mudflows. For people, participating in such events is part of their understanding: yes, there is a threat here, and we can counter it together,” Aripkhanova noted in an interview with Gazeta.

The need for coordination of actions

Iskandar Abdullaev emphasizes that current threats require regional coordination in monitoring and response. In an interview with Gazeta, he cited a 2017 study by the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia (at the time, he headed the organization). Experts calculated that cooperation between countries in the region on water and environmental issues could lead to annual savings of over $4 billion.

“If our region coordinated its actions and exchanged data in the water sector, we would gain $4 billion annually. Otherwise, each country is forced to prepare for threats separately – building its own reservoirs, infrastructure, and rescue services. This is more expensive and ineffective. After all, processes in transboundary river basins are interconnected from source to mouth. It’s impossible to solve a problem locally – be it water shortages, droughts, or floods. By sharing information, we save not only our neighbors but also ourselves,” Abdullaev noted.

Photo: GLOFCA.

Diana Aripkhanova also emphasized to Gazeta that the main risks arise precisely in border areas. Therefore, data sharing and the creation of a unified monitoring database can significantly improve safety and even save lives.

However, a serious obstacle remains: data on glaciers, glacial lakes, and water resources is traditionally considered national security information. Countries in the region are still reluctant to share this data, and building trust is particularly important here. According to her, the emergence of regional centers, which could eventually develop into a common data system, is already a positive sign.