Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda called on Asian countries to more actively integrate their energy systems and develop cross-border electricity trade. He emphasized that no country can address energy security issues alone.

This call is particularly relevant for Central Asia. The region already had a unified energy system, known as the Central Asian Energy Ring. Today, countries are returning to this idea, and Tajikistan is gradually reconnecting to the unified energy system.

ADB focuses on cross-border energy

Masato Kanda spoke about the need to interconnect energy systems at the 2026 Asian Clean Energy Forum in Manila. According to the ADB chief, delays could lead to higher energy prices, slower economic growth, and missed opportunities for millions of people.

Against this backdrop, the ADB is promoting the Pan-Asian Energy Grid Initiative (PAGI). Its goal is to connect national and regional power systems and move from isolated interstate projects to more coordinated electricity trade.

PAGI is expected to raise $50 billion by 2035. The initiative is expected to help connect 22,000 kilometers of transmission lines, integrate 20 GW of renewable energy, reduce emissions in the energy sector, and create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Central Asia Energy Ring: An Old Idea, New Challenges

The idea of ​​interconnecting energy systems in Central Asia is not new. As energy specialist Hamidjon Arifov points out, back in Soviet times, the region already had the Unified Energy System of Central Asia, or the Central Asian Energy Ring. It connected Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

According to Arifov, the system worked by complementing each other. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan relied on hydropower, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan relied on thermal power, gas, and coal. In the summer, upstream countries generated more electricity from hydropower, and in the winter, they could receive support from their neighbors.

The EDB report, “Energy in Central Asia: Energy Sector Modernization and Energy Transition,” also notes that during the Soviet era, power generation and reservoir operations were coordinated by a dispatch center in Tashkent. After the collapse of the USSR, this system was disrupted: countries began building their own energy security, and joint management of water and energy resources weakened.

Today, the region is once again returning to integration. According to the EDB, this trend is driven by rising electricity demand, deteriorating infrastructure, and the need to integrate renewable energy sources. Nikolay Podguzov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, notes that expanding cross-border ties can reduce systemic risks, smooth out seasonal differences, and attract investment.

Tajikistan in the energy ring: the south is already connected, the north is on the way

Tajikistan has already begun returning to the unified Central Asian power grid. Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma previously stated that the southwestern part of the country’s power grid was connected to the unified system in June 2024. The connection of the northern region is planned for completion in the first half of 2026.

According to the minister, integrating Tajikistan’s energy system into the unified Central Asian energy system remains a priority. This should improve the reliability of energy supply and expand opportunities for energy exchange with neighboring countries.

At the same time, Tajikistan is developing export projects. One of these is the CASA-1000, which is intended to connect Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Daler Juma noted that the Tajik and Kyrgyz sections of the line have already been commissioned.

The Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant is of particular importance. Juma called it a key project for the country’s future energy balance. But along with export opportunities comes a key question: how to reconcile electricity exports with Tajikistan’s growing domestic demand?

Arifov: “The Energy Ring is a big responsibility”

Energy specialist Hamidjon Arifov generally supports the idea of ​​integrating energy systems. He believes that if the ADB’s proposals are implemented “thoughtfully” and “specifically,” they could have a positive impact.

But, Arifov emphasizes, the energy ring is more than just an opportunity to sell and buy electricity. It also represents a significant technological responsibility.

As an example, Arifov cites a major accident in Tajikistan’s power grid during work at the Regar substation, when the shutdown of a large load affected the operation of the Nurek hydroelectric power station. 

It also recalls the winter of 2007-2008, when a sharp rise in consumption and unauthorized power theft complicated the operation of the regional system.

In his opinion, before fully joining the unified system, countries must modernize power plants, substations, and transmission lines. Technical protection mechanisms are also needed: if an accident occurs, the system must automatically contain it to prevent the failure from affecting all participants.

Water poses a particular risk. Arifov believes that energy integration should not be a one-way street. If countries are discussing market relations in the electricity sector, they should also discuss compensation mechanisms for water use, as well as encourage water conservation in downstream countries.

For Tajikistan, Arifov believes, it’s important to calculate in advance how much electricity the country can export without affecting domestic consumption. Exports via CASA-1000, supplies to neighboring countries, and future generation from the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant should not undermine industrialization programs or domestic energy supplies.

EDBR: The energy ring will not operate without network modernization.

The Eurasian Development Bank’s report, “Energy in Central Asia: Energy Sector Modernization and Energy Transition,” also emphasizes that Central Asia needs regional integration not only for electricity trade but also for the sustainability of the entire system.

According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), electricity demand in Central Asia could increase by approximately 40% by 2030, from 270 to 370 billion kWh. However, infrastructure remains a key challenge: in some countries, up to 70% of power grids and thermal power plants have reached the end of their service life, and transmission and distribution losses reach 15–20%.

For Tajikistan, the report highlights three key features.

The first is the country’s almost complete dependence on hydropower. This provides the country with low-carbon generation, but makes the system vulnerable to low water levels. In dry years, especially in winter, hydropower output declines, and the country may face electricity shortages.

The second is high grid losses. According to the report, in 2024, electricity transmission and distribution losses in Tajikistan amounted to 20%, or approximately 4.5 billion kWh. This is one of the highest rates in the region.

Third , the need for diversification. Tajikistan has approved the “10/10/10/10” concept by 2030: 10 GW of installed capacity, 10 billion kWh of exports, a 10% reduction in losses, and 10% of generation from alternative sources.

The main increase in capacity should come from the completion of the Rogun hydroelectric power station, the construction of new hydroelectric power stations, the reconstruction of existing stations, and the introduction of solar and wind power.

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) proposes a “middle path” for the region: not a radical abandonment of traditional energy or the preservation of the old model, but the modernization of existing plants, the development of renewable energy sources, energy storage, digital control, reserve capacity, and regional integration.

Networks, water, and the market: what hinders full integration

The main obstacle is deteriorating infrastructure. The EDB report states that up to 70% of grids and thermal power plants in some countries in the region have reached the end of their service life, and transmission and distribution losses reach 15–20%. Therefore, modernized lines, substations, automation, and dispatching systems are needed for full integration.

Khamidjon Arifov also insists on this. He states that in a unified power grid, an accident in one part can affect neighboring parts if the grids, stations, and protection systems are not prepared for parallel operation.

The second barrier is water. For Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, water is linked to electricity generation, especially in winter. For downstream countries, it is critically important in summer for irrigation. The EDB emphasizes that balancing energy and irrigation interests is impossible without interstate agreements on water and energy resources.

There are other complexities, too: different tariff approaches, subsidies and regulatory rules, a lack of reserve capacity, and the political sensitivity of water and energy agreements. Therefore, the energy ring is not only a technical project but also a matter of trust, rules, and long-term commitments between the countries of the region.

What will the energy ring bring to the region and Tajikistan?

Interconnecting energy systems could help Central Asian countries better balance seasonal differences. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would be able to export excess hydropower in the summer and receive support from their neighbors’ thermal and gas generation in the winter.

For Tajikistan, this means new opportunities: increased summer electricity exports, more efficient use of the Rogun hydroelectric power station’s potential, and participation in the future regional market. 

This is indicated by Daler Juma’s statements about the country’s return to the unified energy system, plans to export part of Rogun’s output, as well as the World Bank’s REMIT program to create a regional electricity market. 

But the benefits will depend on the conditions. The EDB report emphasizes the need for network modernization, loss reduction, reserve development, and transparent trading rules. Hamidjon Arifov reiterates his warning: the integration will only be effective when the networks, stations, and protection systems are ready for parallel operation. He believes that the water factor, compensation for water use, and risks to Tajikistan’s domestic energy supply should be discussed separately.

Therefore, the main question today is not whether energy systems should be interconnected. The question is under what conditions such an interconnection will be safe, beneficial, and fair for all countries in the region.