The population of Central Asian capitals is growing rapidly. Over the past decade, the population of Astana has increased by 46%, Dushanbe by 40%, Bishkek and Tashkent by 20%. Tashkent remains the most populous city in the region: in 2022, it was home to more than 3 million people, and the population of the agglomeration exceeded 5 million.
The population density reaches 8,000 people per square kilometer. Astana, with a population of 1.4 million, has a density of 1,500 people per square kilometer, but its area of 797.33 square kilometers makes the city second in area after Ashgabat with its 917.6 square kilometers.
Bishkek, despite its smallest area among the region’s capitals (160 square kilometers), has a high population density. These figures reflect a general trend: urbanization in Central Asia is gaining momentum, but urban development policies are failing to keep up with demographic growth.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asian countries faced the need to formulate their own urban development policies. During the Soviet period, the region’s cities were developed according to strict master plans that provided for a balanced distribution of residential, industrial and public areas.
However, in the post-Soviet period, systematic planning gave way to spontaneous development. In the suburbs of large cities such as Tashkent, Bishkek and Dushanbe, mass construction of private houses began on land previously designated for agriculture or summer cottages.
Since the 1980s, these areas have been developed without regard for engineering infrastructure, transport accessibility, and environmental standards. As a result, vast unregulated residential areas have formed, which today create a burden on urban systems.
Chaotic development manifests itself in several forms
Firstly , this is the uncontrolled construction of multi-storey residential complexes. In Astana, for example, since 1997, when the city became the capital of Kazakhstan, active construction of high-rise buildings began. According to local architects, over 25 years the area of built-up territories has increased threefold, but only 30% of new objects comply with the norms of the urban development code.
In Bishkek, the situation is exacerbated by a shortage of available land: from 2010 to 2020, the number of multi-storey buildings increased by 35%, but 60% of them were built with violations, including a lack of parking and green spaces.
Secondly , chaotic development includes unauthorized construction of private houses. In Tashkent, between 1995 and 2015, about 20% of suburban lands were developed without permits, which led to a shortage of water supply and sanitation in these areas.
One of the reasons for the current situation is the weakness of the regulatory framework. In most Central Asian countries, urban planning codes are either outdated or do not take into account modern realities. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, until 2018, there were no clear standards for the construction of high-rise buildings, which led to the construction of houses that do not meet seismic requirements.
In Uzbekistan, despite 2019 reforms aimed at strengthening control over construction, the practice of issuing permits retroactively still persists. In Tajikistan, the construction sector suffers from corruption: independent experts estimate that up to 40% of construction permits in Dushanbe are issued in violation of procedure.
Economic factors also play a key role
The construction boom in Central Asia is fueled by high demand for housing. In Tashkent, the average cost per square meter in new buildings has increased from $500 in 2015 to $1,200 in 2023.
In Astana, the same figure has increased from $800 to $2,000. This encourages developers to speed up projects, ignoring the long-term consequences. At the same time, public investment in infrastructure is lagging.
In Bishkek, only 15% of city roads have asphalt pavement that meets standards by 2023, and in Dushanbe, 70% of sewer systems require modernization. Lack of funding means that new residential complexes often lack the necessary utilities.
The environmental consequences of chaotic development are becoming increasingly visible. In Bishkek, located in a basin, the construction of high-rise buildings disrupts the natural circulation of air.
According to environmentalists, the level of air pollution in the city increased by 25% from 2015 to 2022, and in winter the concentration of PM2.5 particles exceeds the World Health Organization standards by 5-7 times. Activists note that high-rise buildings block the wind rose, increasing the smog.
In Tashkent, the clearing of green areas for development has reduced the area of parks by 15% over the past 20 years, leading to a 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperatures in the city.
In Astana, despite the sharply continental climate with temperature fluctuations from -50 to +40 degrees Celsius, new districts are being built without taking into account thermal insulation and energy efficiency, which increases the load on energy systems.
Transport infrastructure cannot cope with population growth and development
In Tashkent in 2023, the average daily traffic of the mobile population amounted to 9 million trips, of which 6 million were made by transport.
Despite the development of the metro, which carries 445,900 passengers daily, traffic congestion remains a problem: average travel times across the city have increased by 20% since 2018.
In Astana, public transport covers only 40% of residents’ needs. The chaotic layout of new residential areas complicates public transport routes, forcing residents to rely on private cars, which increases traffic congestion.
The social consequences are no less significant. High-rise development, as urbanists note, reduces the quality of life. In Bishkek and Dushanbe, multi-story buildings are often built without courtyards, playgrounds, and recreation areas. Research shows that residents of low-rise areas interact more often with their neighbors and take care of the surrounding areas, while in high-rise buildings, social isolation becomes the norm.
In Astana, new districts such as the left bank are designed with an emphasis on presentability, but are inconvenient for pedestrians: sidewalks often end, and the distances between infrastructure facilities force the use of transport. In 2020, EU expert Valts Vilnitis named Astana and Bishkek the least pedestrian-friendly capitals in Central Asia.
Political centralization in the countries of the region exacerbates the problem
The capitals of Central Asia play a hypertrophied role: Bishkek accounts for 39% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, and Tashkent for about 25% of Uzbekistan’s GDP. This attracts migrants, increasing the pressure on urban infrastructure.
At the same time, centralized management makes it difficult to take local characteristics into account. For example, in Dushanbe, located at an altitude of 750-930 meters above sea level, development does not take into account the complex terrain, which leads to soil erosion and the risk of landslides.
Solving the problem requires a comprehensive approach. First , it is necessary to update urban development codes. In 2019, Uzbekistan introduced an electronic project approval system, which reduced corruption risks by 15%. This experience can be scaled up.
Secondly , investments in infrastructure are needed. The World Bank has allocated $200 million in 2023 to modernize transport systems in Central Asia, but this is not enough to cover the deficit. Thirdly , it is important to develop low-rise buildings and public spaces.
Research shows that cities with a predominance of buildings up to 5 storeys high are more comfortable to live in. Finally, stronger environmental control is required. In Bishkek, a pilot project on greening roofs in 2022 showed a decrease in temperature in buildings by 2 degrees Celsius, which could be an example for other capitals.
The chaotic development in Central Asian capitals is the result of systemic problems: outdated regulations, economic pressures, weak infrastructure, and political centralization. Without reform, cities will continue to choke under smog, traffic jams, and social disunity. The region’s current population growth and economic potential offer a chance for modernization, but this requires long-term plans that are currently lacking.