Uzbekistan, Tashkent – ​​Podrobno.uz News Agency.  Uzbekistan must not only increase electricity production but also create a sustainable energy system capable of responding to demographic growth, economic development, and the global transition to green energy. Renowned energy scientist and academician Kakhramon Allaev spoke to Podrobno.uz about how the country intends to address these challenges.

Why the energy sector can no longer develop according to the old model.

According to Allaev, Uzbekistan’s energy development is directly linked to global processes. The global energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, during which traditional sources are gradually giving way to new technologies. The expert noted that energy systems are shifting from centralized models to more flexible and decentralized ones, where renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, and digital management technologies will play a key role.

“The energy sector is changing according to an oscillatory law, the general law of development of everything that exists. Centralized energy is gradually transitioning to decentralized energy. At the same time, renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, and new energy technologies will receive a major boost. If we look at global energy development forecasts for the next 25 years, we find that while there were approximately 10,000 MW of capacity in 2024, by 2050 this figure will increase three to four and a half times. This growth will raise issues related to the environment, optimal use of energy, and its rational consumption,” Allaev believes. 

Which energy sources will determine the future of global energy?

The expert drew attention to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which show how the global energy structure will change in the coming decades. According to him, this data is important not only for strategic planning but also for understanding the areas in which specialists need to be trained.

According to forecasts, by 2050, global consumption of natural gas will decrease threefold, oil by tenfold, and coal by 11fold. Meanwhile, wind and solar power generation will increase significantly (8-13 times, respectively), while nuclear energy will maintain and strengthen its role. A sharp increase (up to 60 times) in energy storage devices—pumped storage plants, batteries, and others—is also expected.

“This forecast is crucial for young energy scientists. A thoughtful look reveals which areas are worth pursuing and where the country will need new competencies,” Allaev noted.

Population and economic growth: how much electricity will the country need?

The scientist noted the dynamic development of Uzbekistan’s energy sector over the past eight years, which is linked to a new approach to reforming the country’s energy sector.

The expert identified demographic and economic changes as one of the main factors driving the growth in electricity demand. Uzbekistan’s population has grown significantly in recent years and, according to various estimates, could reach 52-55 million by 2050. The academic emphasized that as the economy and industry grow, the energy sector will inevitably develop, and the country’s task is to ensure this development has an adequate energy base.

The country is making significant efforts to develop the energy sector. Furthermore, energy workers are faced with the task of fulfilling the head of state’s directive to increase the share of renewable energy sources to 54% by 2030. The scientist believes that Uzbekistan has every opportunity to achieve this goal.

Today, the total installed capacity of Uzbekistan’s energy system is approximately 23 GW, and annual generation is approximately 85 billion kWh. For comparison, in 2016, this figure did not exceed 60 billion kWh. By 2030, the country plans to reach 140 billion kWh, and by 2035, 170 billion kWh.

New sources: why reserves are essential, and nuclear energy will become the base.

The expert noted that Uzbekistan has abundant shale reserves, amounting to approximately 50 billion tons. Considering that the United States once transformed from an importer to an exporter of energy resources through the use of “shale revolution” technology, the prospects for energy development become clear.

Allaev emphasized that the development of solar and wind energy, despite their environmental friendliness, is associated with a number of technical limitations. The main problem is generation instability, so, according to him, the country needs to create reserve capacity in advance. By 2035, Uzbekistan plans to build approximately 5,000 MW of pumped-storage hydroelectric power plants and approximately 4,000 MW of battery storage. This will smooth out generation fluctuations and improve the reliability of the power grid.

The expert paid special attention to nuclear energy, calling it a key element of the baseload energy system. As of November 19, 2025, there were 416 nuclear reactors operating worldwide with a total capacity of 376.3 GW. According to IEA forecasts, by 2050, global nuclear power capacity could reach over 1,100 GW, making nuclear energy a key player in the transition to clean energy.

Commenting on the global trend in the development of nuclear projects, the scientist emphasized that this process will continue.

“According to the IAEA, 63 reactor units are currently under construction, 26 of which are being built by Russia. This means that Russia is a leader in the development and implementation of nuclear energy. I think this process will continue,” Allaev is confident.

He noted that Uzbekistan has significant uranium reserves and is already a major exporter. According to the adopted decisions, by 2035 the country plans to Complete the construction of a nuclear power plant using Russian technology with a total capacity of 2,100 MW, including both small and large power units, and a total output of approximately 15 billion kWh per year. According to his forecasts, by 2050, Uzbekistan’s total nuclear generation capacity will reach 8-10 GW, which, combined with renewable energy sources, will provide the country with not only baseload power but also carbon-neutral energy.

The expert concluded that the strategic development of Uzbekistan’s energy sector in the long term should be aimed at the combined use (symbiosis) of renewable and nuclear energy sources, digital technologies, advanced hydrocarbon processing, and improved energy efficiency in production and consumption. This will allow the country to avoid electricity shortages and reduce its environmental impact. 

Google machine translated