Mortality from climate change and air pollution will increase. We report on the results of a study by scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology in Germany
What is the trend?
Climate change is not a problem of the future. Global warming caused by increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is already impacting the environment. Glaciers and permafrost are melting, sea levels are rising, and heat waves are becoming longer and more intense.
Climate change and air pollution could put 30 million lives at risk per year by the end of the 21st century, according to a research team from the Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology in Germany.
How the risks were calculated
The researchers conducted computer modeling based on forecasts of temperature changes in the world and air pollution data since 2000. The team tracked the dynamics of the processes and presented several scenarios for the development of the situation.
Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and associate professor at the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus:
“In 2000, about 1.6 million people died each year from extreme temperatures (cold and heat). By the end of the century, according to the most likely scenario, this figure will increase to 10.8 million. As for air pollution, in 2000, the annual death toll was about 4.1 million. By the end of the century, this figure will increase to 19.5 million.”
The study found a worrying trend, the authors said: Deaths from pollution will increase fivefold, while those from temperature change will increase sevenfold. The latter represents a more serious health risk than air pollution for at least 20% of the world’s population.
Potential danger for countries
The changes will affect many regions. South and East Asia are expected to see the largest increases in deaths, driven by aging populations. But air pollution will also be a leading cause.
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In high-income places such as Western Europe, North America, Australia and the Asia-Pacific region, deaths associated with extreme temperatures are expected to exceed deaths from air pollution.
By the end of the century, a fifth of the world’s population will have to adapt to a sharp increase or decrease in temperature. “Climate change is not just an environmental problem, it is a direct threat to public health,” explained Andrea Pozzer. Taking steps to mitigate climate change now will prevent future deaths.
https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/green/6751fc349a79473e8250979b?from=copy