Due to its predominantly mountainous terrain, Tajikistan is sensitive to climate change, said the head of the country’s Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer.
DUSHANBE, January 8 — Sputnik. The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible in Tajikistan: global warming is affecting crop yields and leading to the melting of glaciers. A striking example of this negative trend is the uncontrolled movement of the Dehdal Glacier, which has shifted nearly a kilometer since mid-November.
Sattor Saidov, head of the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer at the Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection of the Republic of Tajikistan, spoke to Sputnik Tajikistan about the problems the republic faces due to global warming.
Crop losses
Over the past few years, Tajikistan’s climate has changed significantly. Saidov noted that extreme temperatures are increasingly being recorded, precipitation patterns are changing, and irrigation reliability is declining.
“This is already having varying effects locally and across crops: in some areas, it’s reduced yields due to drought and water shortages, while in others, it’s delays in sowing dates and pest risks. Models and national assessments show that significant yield losses are expected for some major crops without adaptation,” admitted the head of the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer in Tajikistan.
According to him, climate change is reducing the country’s summer and autumn water supplies, increasing the frequency of droughts, and deteriorating the irrigation infrastructure. Furthermore, rising temperatures are putting stress on grain crops and cotton.
“The country’s heavy dependence on glacial and snow-fed rivers, along with the significant contribution of agriculture and hydropower to the economy, make it vulnerable. Consequences include threats to food security, reduced hydroelectric power generation during hot/dry seasons, and an increased frequency of emergencies, such as landslides and mudflows. National and international reports clearly note the high vulnerability and the need for adaptation measures and irrigation modernization,” he shared.
Local danger due to melting glaciers
According to Tajikistan’s meteorological service, sudden glacier movements or collapses were observed in several regions of the country in 2025. These included large breaks and ice advances of hundreds of meters in a short period of time. The most notorious was the Dehdal glacier, which moved nearly a kilometer in just under a month.
“This is associated with an abnormally warm summer, a prolonged drought, and the accumulation of water within the glacier’s body, which can reduce friction and cause a ‘sliding’ shift,” explained the head of the Tajikistan Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer.
Saidov emphasized that this poses a serious local danger.
“Rapid flows of ice and rock, blockages of river channels, ice jams, possible infrastructure damage, and threats to villages and people in the valley. The risk of further breakaways remains as long as the glacier is active,” he said.
Which way the wind blows
Another danger for Tajikistan is dust storms, which will hit Iran, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan in the second half of 2025 due to severe drought.
Saidov noted that dust reduces the availability of water resources, as reduced runoff makes it difficult to irrigate agricultural land.
“This also poses a risk of soil fertility loss, as wind erosion reduces organic matter and pollutes fields. The degradation of mountain ecosystems and pastures accelerates, ultimately increasing the economic burden,” noted the head of the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer of Tajikistan.
In addition, dust leads to an increase in respiratory diseases, especially in cities and valleys.
Dust storms also have a negative impact on glaciers, as their reflectivity decreases.
“That is, the [glacier’s] surface absorbs more solar radiation, which accelerates melting. Research in Central Asia shows that areas with visible deposits melt faster than clean ones,” Saidov added.
What about Lake Sarez?
Sarez has been under expert observation for decades, as experts say that if the lake were to burst, it would flood not only Tajikistan, but five neighboring countries.
Saidov confirmed that if the Usoi Dam is damaged by a strong earthquake, a major landslide, or deep erosion, a sudden release of a huge volume of water is possible.
“Consequences: A gigantic wave of water flowing down the Bartang River, further along the Panj and Amu Darya, could potentially cause catastrophic destruction in the valleys of Tajikistan. It would flood villages and destroy infrastructure. It could affect areas in neighboring countries—parts of Afghanistan, and then, along the Amu Darya basin chain, consequences for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and further down the system are possible,” the head of the country’s Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer predicted.
He emphasized that the scenario of a “complete instant breakthrough” is unlikely, although possible, and therefore poses the highest risk.
“Lake Sarez remains under constant monitoring due to geological risks. In recent years, there have been projects to modernize monitoring and early warning systems (EWS). <…> Aerial surveys, satellite monitoring, and field inspections are also conducted periodically,” Saidov noted.
He also added that climate change indirectly affects the situation with Lake Sarez.
“This increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation and alters the thaw regime, which could lead to an increased frequency of landslides in mountainous areas. Heavy rainfall or melting snow and ice could trigger new mudflows or avalanches in the lake basin, and, as a result, alter the hydrodynamics or even place additional stress on the natural dam. Thus, climate change increases the likelihood of trigger events that could theoretically lead to a dangerous transformation of the lake’s condition,” Saidov concluded.
Google machine translated
https://tj.sputniknews.ru/20260108/klimat-ledniki-pylnye-buri-intervyu-1074394779.html