Summers in Tajikistan and Central Asia are getting hotter due to climate change, and extreme heat increasingly impacts residents’ daily lives—from the ability to walk safely outside to how much time they spend outdoors. But it’s not just the climate that’s at play. The way a city is laid out—how many trees, shade, greenery, and water it offers—can either moderate or exacerbate the heat.

Over 40 degrees: The heat in cities is already changing

To understand how extreme heat conditions in Tajikistan’s cities are changing amid climate change, we contacted the Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan.

Agency specialists analyzed summer data for three cities—Dushanbe, Bokhtar, and Khujand. The analysis covers June, July, and August, allowing us to examine not only the number of hot days but also how the frequency of extreme temperatures changes.

Between 2017 and 2026, Bokhtar recorded 548 summer days with maximum temperatures reaching 37 degrees Celsius or higher. Dushanbe recorded 442 such days, and Khujand 263.

Looking at the highest temperatures—40 degrees and above—over the past ten years, there were 135 such days in Bokhtar and Dushanbe, and 64 in Khujand.

But it’s not just the number of hot days that matters, but whether such heatwaves are becoming more frequent. To do this, the experts compared two periods—2010-2019 and 2020-2026. Since the second period has not yet ended, its figures were recalculated as an annual average.

The picture varied across the three cities. In Bokhtar, an increase in heat wave frequency was observed across all major temperature categories. In Dushanbe, the frequency of temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and above increased most significantly.

In Khujand, by contrast, the figures for recent years are still lower than in the previous decade. Meanwhile, 2010-2019 were themselves very hot years for Khujand.

“This is an important distinction. Warming and extreme heat do not manifest themselves equally in all cities and do not necessarily increase linearly from decade to decade,” says Jamila Baidulloeva, an expert in hydrometeorological forecasting and climate change studies at the Agency for Hydrometeorology.

However, the differences between cities do not change the overall forecast for the country. According to official climate assessments, maximum and minimum daily temperatures in Tajikistan will rise, and the risk of heatwaves will increase.

“The southern and southwestern regions of the country are considered particularly vulnerable to extreme heat,” says Jamila Baidulloeva. “Therefore, the trend for the coming decades is quite clear—the risk of extreme heat will increase. However, it would be inappropriate to provide specific temperature increases for Dushanbe, Khujand, or Bokhtar separately without specialized urban climate modeling.”

Why does the heat in the city feel more intense?

But high temperatures aren’t the whole problem. The way a city is laid out can also influence how intensely hot it feels. Jamila Baidulloeva explains this as the urban heat island effect.

Khujand. Photo: asia+

“Under natural conditions, some solar energy is expended on moisture evaporation by vegetation and soil. In cities, a significant portion of the surface is replaced by asphalt, concrete, roofs, and other artificial materials. These heat up intensely during the day, accumulate heat, and then slowly release it in the evening and at night,” the expert says.

It is not only the daily maximum temperature that is important.

“The extent to which a city can cool down at night is crucial. Reducing green space further enhances this effect, reducing shade and reducing evaporative cooling. Dense development can also impair natural ventilation in certain streets and neighborhoods,” notes Baidulloeva.

However, it’s not yet possible to accurately determine how much warmer, for example, central Dushanbe is than its outskirts based on available meteorological data. This requires separate observations within the city and on its outskirts, as well as satellite analysis of surface temperatures.

However, this does not change the main thing: cities will have to prepare for a hotter climate now.

“It’s impossible to assess a city’s readiness or unreadiness solely based on hydrometeorological observations. This requires a combined assessment of the state of healthcare, energy supply, water supply, urban development, landscaping, housing, and the social security system,” the expert says.

According to Baidulloeva, the priorities for each of the three cities differ slightly. In Dushanbe, where the frequency of temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and above has increased particularly rapidly, mapping the most overheated areas, preserving and expanding green and shaded spaces, reducing overheating in buildings and streets, and developing a heat warning system are key.

In Bokhtar, where the overall number of very hot days is highest, access to water and shade, reliable water and energy supplies during periods of prolonged heat, and the protection of outdoor workers and vulnerable groups are particularly important.

In Khujand, despite a lower overall frequency of extreme heat, temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and above remain a regular occurrence, so landscaping, shade creation, and measures to reduce overheating of the urban surface are also necessary here.

Khujand. Photo: Toch Sokhtmon construction company

General measures are also needed for all three cities.

“City heatwave action plans are needed. It’s important to identify the most vulnerable areas and population groups, increase the area of ​​trees and other greenery, and create shaded public spaces. Construction solutions that reduce overheating of roofs, facades, and road surfaces are also needed,” notes Jamila Baidulloeva.

How does city planning affect heat?

Architect Mansur Eshonov notes that how comfortable a city will be in hot weather depends largely on how its territory is planned. This requires, first and foremost, compliance with the building codes and regulations of the Republic of Tajikistan (SNiP RT).

According to the regulations, the calculated density should not exceed 400 people per hectare, and for Dushanbe this figure is 600 people per hectare.

“New buildings today are often built on the sites of older buildings. Previously, these would have been four or five-story buildings; today, a 20-story building has taken their place. So, if we increase the population of a building, we must also increase the size of its courtyards and green spaces,” says Eshonov.

However, not all developers comply with SNiP standards and requirements. New buildings are sometimes built too close to each other, with significantly less attention paid to landscaping and landscaping.

A new building in Buston (formerly Chkalovsk) on Dustia Khalkho Street (May 1), being erected almost adjacent to the neighboring building. Photo: asia+

Sometimes, for the sake of yet another new development, existing, cozy courtyards, which residents themselves have spent years improving—with trees, flower beds, and recreation areas—disappear.

Tajikistan’s current urban development regulations contain specific requirements for greenery. Depending on the type of land, its share should be 20-40%. It is important not only to include green areas in new construction but also to preserve existing trees. In practice, these are often the ones at risk when new buildings are erected.

A new building in Buston (Chkalovsk). The courtyard has no trees, and a significant portion of the space is taken up by parked cars. Photo: asia+

At the same time, when choosing trees, one should not chase exotic designs or try to copy other people’s landscaping models, the architect notes.

“Our climate is best suited to plane trees, willows, poplars, oaks, and pines. They provide shade, absorb sunlight, and thus create a more favorable climate. It’s no wonder these trees were planted in the past. Elm trees are ideal for low-water areas; they’re planted along roadsides where there’s no water,” says Eshonov.

The comfort of a neighborhood is also influenced by spaces where people can spend time outdoors—parks, ponds, and other recreational areas. As the weather gets hotter, more such spaces are needed in the city.

Green courtyards of old houses. Buston (formerly Chkalovsk). Photo: asia+

“The lake that was filled in Buston (formerly Chkalovsk) today is a very smart decision. It’s a recreational facility, creating comfortable conditions for air circulation. If the forested area is also restored, as it was before, like in the lower park, it will create a very comfortable microclimate—the temperature will be 4-5 degrees lower,” says the architect.

Khujand, he says, is simply fortunate in its location: the city lies along the Syr Darya River. Furthermore, the Kairakkum Reservoir has influenced local conditions, creating a unique buffer zone that alters air movement.

“If you look at the old buildings on the right bank of Khujand, all the houses are parallel to the river. They were never built perpendicularly, as they took wind flow into account. The sun’s movement was also taken into account. This is all very important for public health,” says Eshonov.

Another important factor to consider when planning new neighborhoods is the transportation system. This applies not only to road capacity but also to the distance between roads and residential buildings.

“There should be a green buffer zone between the road and the houses so that roads heated by the sun and cars don’t affect the comfort and microclimate in the houses. According to regulations, the distance from the road to the houses should be no less than 8-12 meters,” says the architect.

Another element of a comfortable urban environment is the irrigation ditch system, which once covered almost the entire city but today is only partially preserved.

“If you look at Khujand in the past, almost every mahalla, in addition to irrigation ditches, also had natural reservoirs called khauzes. Willow trees were always growing nearby. Over time, this system was largely lost. But willows are a kind of air conditioner: they take moisture from the water and release it back into the area,” says Eshonov.

How to make homes heat-resistant

In hot weather, much depends on how well the building itself can protect a person from overheating.

Dana Yermolyonok, GIZ Project Manager in Kazakhstan, notes that this issue is becoming increasingly pressing for Central Asia. The region faces both cold winters and hot summers, and much of the housing stock was built several decades ago.

Moreover, the energy efficiency of a building is important not only in winter; high-quality thermal insulation also helps slow the flow of heat into the premises in summer.

Therefore, in her opinion, the first response to heat isn’t necessarily air conditioning. The first step is to make the building itself less hot.

“In addition to high-quality thermal insulation, windows, building orientation, protection from direct sunlight, and ventilation are all important. For example, external blinds, canopies, or awnings help prevent overheating through windows. Trees provide natural shade. Intensive night ventilation can be used, when the cooler night air helps cool the room. It’s especially important to protect the roof and large windows exposed to direct sunlight from overheating,” says Yermolyonok.

This approach is already being used in projects to improve the energy efficiency of buildings in Kazakhstan. GIZ specialists consider the building as a unified system, rather than a set of individual technologies: walls, roof, basement, windows, ventilation, and utility systems are taken into account. This approach is used both in the modernization of existing apartment buildings and in the construction of new housing.

For Tajikistan, this experience is important primarily as an example of how heat protection can be built into a building during the design stage, rather than attempting to address the issue after construction.

While air conditioning remains necessary, it is by no means the only way to cope with the rising heat.

“If our only response to rising temperatures is the mass installation of air conditioners, summer electricity consumption will rise rapidly. This means that while adapting to the effects of climate change, we will simultaneously create additional greenhouse gas emissions,” the expert notes.

Therefore, a more sustainable approach is to first minimize a building’s cooling needs through its design, and then use efficient air conditioning systems.

During prolonged heat waves, indoor temperature can become an issue not only for comfort but also for health and safety—especially for the elderly and children, as well as for patients in hospitals and other healthcare facilities.

Even modern materials alone don’t guarantee results. What matters is how the building is designed and the quality of the construction work.

“You can buy very good windows and expensive insulation, and still end up with a pretty bad building if it’s poorly designed or the materials are poorly installed,” says Yermolyonok.

This is especially important to consider when constructing new residential complexes. Such buildings will remain in the urban environment for decades, so solutions designed only for the current climate may quickly become outdated.

“The buildings we’re constructing today will be used for 50 years or more. We can’t repeat the same mistakes and build inefficient buildings according to outdated standards, otherwise, we’ll face the same problems with the new housing stock as we do with the old,” the expert notes.

How developers are adapting new homes to the heat

We spoke with representatives of Tojsokhtmon, one of the leading construction companies in the Sughd region, which has been operating in the market since 2018, about the solutions they use when designing residential complexes in response to the rising heat.

“When designing, we consider wind patterns—this is important for ventilation. We use modern building materials, such as mineral wool, which protects the building from both cold and heat. When installing ventilated facades, we leave an air gap, which reduces the temperature of the building in the summer and improves heat retention in the winter,” the company explained.

The company has abandoned corrugated metal roofing. They say that at temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius, the metal can heat up to 70 degrees Celsius. Instead, they use light-colored PVC membranes that reflect sunlight and help reduce heat buildup on the top floors.

In its new residential complexes, the company plans to make the courtyards greener and place parking underground, freeing up space for landscaping and recreation. They also plan to create artificial streams in the courtyards.

“We’re trying to learn from other countries’ construction practices. For example, in new complexes in central Khujand, we’ll be using monodisperse fog technology. In China, this technology is used through roofing, creating a comfortable microclimate. We’re one of the first in the CIS to implement this. This technology cools not only the buildings but also the surrounding space,” the company explained.

The Guobinfu residential complex in Yuncheng, Shanxi Province. A fine mist water spray system has been installed on the roofs of the high-rise buildings to reduce summer temperatures. Photo: from wenweipo.com

Another factor that can contribute to overheating is glazing. LEGA, a manufacturer of window and door systems, notes that multifunctional and energy-efficient double-glazed windows can be used to reduce solar heat gain. According to company representatives, such solutions simultaneously help reduce air conditioning loads in the summer and retain heat in the winter.

“The first thing that needs to be implemented in Tajikistan is installing multifunctional or energy-efficient double-glazed windows in apartments and private homes. This solution will serve residents year-round. In the summer, the home will always be cool, and in the winter, the warmth will remain inside,” said Alexey Shpiko, Head of Sales.

He also noted the importance of energy efficiency requirements for windows in the construction of apartment buildings. In foreign markets, such requirements include the characteristics of the profile and insulating glass units, whereas in Tajikistan, there are no specific regulations for glazing in apartment buildings.

“International energy efficiency requirements require windows in apartment buildings to be at least 70 mm wide, with five air chambers in the profile, and mandatory double-glazed units. We don’t have similar regulations for glazing in apartment buildings. A similar regulation in Tajikistan would not only change the construction industry but also significantly reduce energy consumption in the country,” noted Alexey Shpiko.

Solutions for heat adaptation already exist today—from smart street planning and tree preservation to energy-efficient buildings and shaded public spaces. The only question is how systematically they will be applied in Tajikistan’s cities.

The abnormally hot summers of the coming decades, becoming a reality as a result of climate change, are no longer a question of the distant future, but a challenge that cities must address today.

The Central Asia Climate Campaign 2026 is being implemented by the International Journalism Center MediaNet and n-ost with the support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) as part of the Communicating Climate in Central Asia project.

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