The apricot harvest in Tajikistan for January–September 2026 decreased by 35.8% compared to last year. Spring frosts, heat, and moisture shortages increase the risks for farmers, and adapting to the new conditions requires funds that many farms lack.

Under an apple tree, in the sparse shade, a farmer sits and looks out over his orchard. All around lies sun-scorched earth, dry adyrs and dusty hills. Only here, among the green trees, a small oasis remains.

But maintaining it is becoming increasingly difficult. The garden grows on dry land, where the harvest depends on rainfall. In dry years, the trees lack moisture, and the soil quickly dries out.

Maintaining a garden requires money—for tree care, soil cultivation, fertilizer, and moisture conservation. But where can you get it when the harvest is unpredictable and bank loans are expensive?

Maybe it would be easier to go to Russia for a season to earn money, save up, and return? But who will tend the apple trees in his absence?

These are the questions that arise for farmers whose income depends on the weather. Climate change is increasing the risks: droughts, heat waves, and sudden temperature fluctuations could leave farmers without the expected harvest.

In 2026, apricot orchards were particularly hard hit.

Why have there been fewer apricots?

According to the Statistics Agency, 206.4 thousand tons of apricots were harvested in Tajikistan from January to September 2026, 35.8% less than a year ago.

In Sughd Region, the harvest fell by 48%, to 89,800 tons. In the Districts of Republican Subordination, the decline reached 54.9%, and in Khatlon, 17.3%.

Gardeners attribute the losses to the weather. After a warm February, the trees bloomed earlier than usual, but then came cold weather and rain. Some flowers and fruit buds perished. Ikhtiyor Aliyev, head of the Isfara-based enterprise “Mevai Zarrin,” told Asia-Plus:

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“Right now, about 20-25% of the harvest is ready. The reason is the weather, climate change. There’s been more rain. When the flowers and buds emerged, the weather turned cold, and all the buds suffered from the cold.”

He estimates that losses at some farms could reach 70-80%. The reduced harvest also affected processors. The Mevai Zarrin enterprise, which typically processes around 200 tons of fruit per year, expected to produce only 60-70 tons this season.

What does the Ministry of Agriculture say?

At a press conference on July 10, First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Nurali Asozoda reported that fruit production in the first half of 2026 fell by 13.1%, to 258,700 tons. Specifically, apricot production fell by 48,600 tons compared to the previous year.

The deputy minister cited climate change and spring frosts, which damaged fruit trees, especially stone fruit, as the main causes.

By the fall, when new data was taken into account, the overall decline in fruit production was only 0.9%. Meanwhile, the apple harvest increased by 18.7%, and the grape harvest by 10.9%. This suggests that spring weather conditions had a mixed impact on fruit crops.

Cherries and peaches also suffered. Gardeners reported damage to blossoms and fruit buds due to early blooming, rain, and cold weather.

In early June, the average price of peaches rose to 37.4 somoni per kilogram, up from 22.4 somoni the year before, while cherries rose from 22 to 33 somoni. However, prices were impacted not only by crop losses but also by transportation and storage costs.

The hotter it is, the more often you have to water

Climate change is impacting more than just fruit orchards. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are increasing crops’ water requirements.

In September 2025, Asia-Plus reported on the Usto Murod farm in Vahdat. Its director, Galatmo Aliyeva, noted that even where water is available, the fields need to be irrigated more frequently.

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“We have water because we’re closer to the river sources, but even we have to water more often. While three waterings per season used to be enough, now it’s five or six,” she said.

The higher the temperature, the faster moisture evaporates from the soil. This increases water consumption and the cost of growing crops. For farmers who rely on irrigation canals for water, the problem is compounded by uneven distribution. Farms at the end of the canals may not have enough water.

At the Usto Murod farm, changing weather conditions have also affected beekeeping. According to farmers, while a single hive used to produce 20-25 kilograms of honey, in 2025 it will only yield 4-5 kilograms. The reasons cited include heat, dust storms, and deteriorating conditions for nectar collection.

Soils are losing fertility

Another consequence of climate change is the deterioration of agricultural land. According to data previously reported by Asia-Plus, nearly 70% of Tajikistan’s arable land is subject to various forms of degradation.

According to experts, due to deteriorating soil conditions, the yield of individual crops may decrease by 9–15%.

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“Rising temperatures and reduced precipitation lead to increased demand for irrigation water, which intensifies evaporation and soil salinization,” explained Murod Ergashev, a researcher at the Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Tajikistan.

As a result, the soil gradually loses fertility. Salinization and soil erosion remain particularly serious problems, as does the depletion of humus, which helps retain moisture.

However, climate isn’t the only cause of degradation. Improper irrigation, inadequate drainage, and lack of crop rotation also worsen the soil’s condition. Agronomist Khairullo Nazarov noted, “When humus is lost, the soil turns to sand and loses its ability to retain water.”

For farmers, this means additional costs to restore soil fertility and the risk of reduced yields.

What did the president say?

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has repeatedly drawn attention to the impact of climate change on agriculture.

In June 2024, at a meeting of the National Development Council, he spoke about declining precipitation, the threat of drought, and the poor condition of irrigated land. According to his data, over 40,000 hectares of agricultural land were in poor condition.

In May 2025, the president again raised the issue of water resource use and the state of irrigation systems. He noted the dependence of a significant portion of irrigated land on pumping stations and ordered increased efforts to restore land, combat salinization, and implement water-saving technologies.

The problem is particularly pressing because agriculture accounts for the majority of the country’s water use. In 2026, Prime Minister Kokhir Rasulzoda reported that this share was approximately 85%.

The government plans to introduce water-saving technologies on half of irrigated land by 2030.

How to preserve crops in new climatic conditions?

Experts recommend that farmers use drought-resistant varieties, restore soil fertility, practice crop rotation, and implement water-saving technologies.

However, for many farms, the main problem is money. For example, at the Usto Murod farm, drip irrigation is used only in the greenhouse. The family is currently unable to expand this system to all of their fields due to the high cost.

In 2025, the government approved a three-year climate change adaptation action plan. 130.3 million somoni have been allocated to improve agricultural resilience and food security.

But government programs and modern technologies don’t yet solve all of farmers’ problems. For a farmer growing apple trees on dry land, the question remains the same: how to preserve an orchard if there’s insufficient rainfall and no money to improve the farm?

And for the sake of the future harvest, won’t we have to leave the land and go to work?