By Rafis Abazov, Vice Rector for International Cooperation, Kazakh National Agrarian Research University (KazNARU)
Executive Summary

Amid an accelerating global energy transition, the implementation of the UN Agenda 2030 goals, and commitments under the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan has entered a new phase of transformation in its energy and agricultural development model. In 2024, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity production reached 6.43%; by 2025, it approached 7%. Approximately 162 facilities are in operation with a total installed capacity exceeding 3.5 GW.

The key challenge is no longer quantitative growth but the qualitative integration of green generation into the real economy — primarily into the agro-industrial complex. In the context of climate risks and tightening ESG requirements, the agricultural sector is becoming a strategic platform for connecting the energy and technological transitions. This opens both ecological and geoeconomic opportunities for Kazakhstan — strengthening export positions and integration into global sustainable production chains.

I. Kazakhstan’s path in the energy transition: bridging hydrocarbon dependence and green strategy

Kazakhstan has traditionally been associated with oil, gas, and coal. As one of the largest hydrocarbon exporters in Eurasia, the country spent decades building an energy model based on fossil fuels. In recent years, however, Kazakhstan has become increasingly visible on the global renewable energy map, gradually integrating into the international system of climate regulation, sustainable finance, and technological cooperation.

For Kazakhstan, what matters most is not so much the current share as the trajectory of structural shift. Unlike many states implementing universal decarbonization scenarios, Kazakhstan is forming its own adapted model of energy transition. This model accounts for the high share of coal generation in the energy balance, the country’s vast territorial scale, the export orientation of the resource sector, and the need to ensure energy security under continental climate conditions. The aim is not to replicate the European or Asian model, but to pursue a phased transformation that preserves macroeconomic stability and social cohesion.

Over the past decade, the installed capacity of RES facilities has grown nearly 14-fold. If only a few years ago green energy was perceived as a pilot experiment, today it is a developing economic sector with a sustained investment dynamic. By the end of 2024, the volume of electricity generated from RES amounted to approximately 7.6 billion kWh — 6.43% of total production. In 2025, the figure approached 7%. Around 162 RES facilities are in operation with a total capacity of approximately 3.5 GW, including wind, solar, hydro, and biogas plants. In 2025 alone, 9 new projects with a combined capacity exceeding 500 MW were commissioned.

At first glance, these figures appear moderate. In European Union countries, the share of RES in electricity production exceeds 40%. In countries such as India and Morocco, the figures reach 30–35%. Even in a number of Eurasian states, the share of renewables approaches 20%.

Kazakhstan, until recently heavily dependent on coal generation, has begun building the institutional, regulatory, and investment infrastructure for the transition — including auction-based RES support mechanisms, the development of green financial instruments, and technology localization. The National Strategy for the Transition to a Green Economy and the commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 have established a framework for long-term transformation synchronized with global trends in decarbonization, ESG financing, and cross-border carbon regulation.

In this context, the key question is no longer “whether to develop RES” but “into which sectors this growing industry will be integrated to generate systemic impact.” And it is the agricultural sector that is becoming the strategic focus of the next phase of energy and technological transition.

II. The Agricultural sector as an underestimated driver of energy transition

Kazakhstan’s agriculture has traditionally been viewed through the lens of land resources, grain exports, and livestock. Yet its energy dimension remains in the shadow of strategic discussions. The agricultural sector is not only the country’s food base but also a key factor in regional employment, export revenues, and rural territorial stability. Amid climate change and the transformation of global food supply chains, the agrarian industry is acquiring strategic importance for Kazakhstan’s economic security and long-term competitiveness.

At the same time, agriculture remains an energy-intensive sector: irrigation, storage, processing, logistics, and greenhouse production all require stable and predictable energy sources. Rising tariffs and dependence on conventional generation directly affect production costs and investment decisions in agribusiness.

This is precisely where renewable energy sources can play a transformative role. Consider greenhouse farming. Kazakhstan is actively expanding its greenhouse areas, seeking to reduce vegetable imports and grow exports to EAEU and Central Asian countries. However, the high cost of electricity and heat remains a key constraint on profitability. Integrating solar power plants directly into greenhouse infrastructure has the potential to reshape project economics, forming a more resilient model of agricultural production.

Solar generation makes it possible to:

•         reduce operating costs,

•         improve price stability,

•         enhance the ESG profile of products,

•         increase export attractiveness.

In European Union countries, agri-photovoltaics has already become a distinct direction of energy policy. In China, solar panels are being integrated into agricultural land, enabling dual land use. In India, solar pumping stations have significantly reduced energy costs for irrigation.

For Kazakhstan, with its high level of solar irradiation, the southern regions may become natural sites for scaling such solutions, especially given the tasks of economic diversification and strengthening the resilience of rural territories.

Another promising segment is biogas installations in livestock farming. Organic waste can be converted into energy and organic fertilizers, forming elements of a circular economy. Only a few such projects currently operate in Kazakhstan, but the potential for processing manure and agricultural waste remains significant.

The agricultural sector, therefore, has the capacity to become not merely a consumer of green energy but an active participant in the energy transition — connecting food security, decarbonization, and technological modernization into a unified sustainable development strategy.

III. Investment and policy: can Kazakhstan build an agro-energy ecosystem?

The growth of the RES sector in Kazakhstan has been largely driven by international support. The Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank, and Chinese investors are actively involved in financing energy projects. Kazakhstan has become one of the largest recipients of green energy investment in the Central Asian region, reinforcing its positioning as a platform for piloting low-carbon solutions.

However, a significant portion of these investments is directed toward large wind and solar plants integrated into the national grid. Agro-RES has yet to be identified as a standalone investment priority. As a result, an imbalance is forming: the energy transition is advancing at an accelerated pace along the line of centralized generation, while agricultural energy remains on the periphery of strategic planning.

An additional factor is intensifying regional competition for green investment. Central Asian and South Caucasus countries are actively developing their own RES support programs, offering tax incentives, guaranteed tariffs, and industrial parks for green projects. In this environment, it is important for Kazakhstan not only to maintain its status as the leader in attracted capital but also to offer more complex, integrated models, including agro-energy clusters.

A structural question arises: can agricultural energy become an independent area of state support? The National Green Economy Program establishes a regulatory framework for diversifying the energy balance and improving energy efficiency. However, the agricultural sector requires more precisely calibrated instruments — preferential lending for RES-powered greenhouses, subsidies for solar pumping stations, incentives for distributed generation in rural areas, and support for cooperative micro-generation models.

In the long term, agro-energy may emerge as a new investment segment, particularly when linked to the export of low-carbon-footprint products. As cross-border carbon regulation tightens and ESG reporting requirements grow, this could become a durable competitive advantage for Kazakhstan in global markets.

IV. Digitalization, education, and green skills: the human factor behind the transformation

Any energy modernization ultimately depends on the quality of human capital. The transition to agro-RES is not only about building solar plants and installing biogas systems — it is above all about the systemic development of education, vocational training, and lifelong learning. Without qualified personnel, the energy transition risks remaining an infrastructure project with no lasting impact.

The integration of IoT systems, intelligent sensors, automated energy management, and digital monitoring platforms is transforming the very logic of agriculture. A modern greenhouse is no longer simply an agricultural facility but a hybrid of energy, digital, and analytical infrastructure. Managing such systems requires interdisciplinary knowledge — at the intersection of agronomy, energy, IT, and economics — as well as the development of skilled trades.

The combination of RES and digital solutions makes it possible to:

•         forecast energy consumption,

•         optimize loads,

•         manage micro-generation,

•         reduce losses,

•         improve business profitability and resilience.

Technological integration, however, is impossible without updating educational programs, introducing modular green skills courses, developing applied bachelor’s and master’s programs, and retraining farmers and engineers. In the context of accelerating technological change, the concept of lifelong learning — the continuous renewal of competencies throughout a professional career — takes on particular importance.

International organizations, including the OECD and the International Labour Organization, emphasize that the green transformation of the economy is directly linked to the modernization of vocational education systems and labor markets. For Kazakhstan, this means the need to synchronize agricultural, energy, and education policy.

The country possesses a well-developed university and research base capable of integrating agro-energy, digital monitoring, and sustainable resource management into curricula. Training agro-energy engineers, agricultural data analysts, and specialists in AI, digitalization, energy efficiency, and green economy can contribute to the implementation of the rural modernization strategy.

In this context, the energy transition ceases to be an exclusively technical process. It becomes a social, institutional, and educational transformation, in which knowledge and competencies are the key resource.

Conclusion: a strategic opening for systemic breakthrough

Kazakhstan has reached a juncture where quantitative RES growth must give way to qualitative integration. With a share of approximately 7% in electricity production and an installed capacity exceeding 3.5 GW, the country has already demonstrated its ability to build the foundational infrastructure for the transition.

The next step is to make the agricultural sector one of the key beneficiaries and drivers of this transformation. RES-powered greenhouse complexes, biogas installations, distributed generation in rural areas, agro-energy digitalization, and the development of green skills can enhance agriculture’s resilience to climate risks, reduce costs, and strengthen export potential.

International investment, the National Green Economy Policy, and growing business interest are creating a favorable window of opportunity. The decisive factor, however, will be the country’s ability to build a coherent agro-energy ecosystem in which technology, investment, and education operate in synchrony.

The strategic conclusion is clear: agro-energy must not remain a peripheral direction. It has the potential to become the connective tissue between energy reform, food security, education modernization, and sustainable rural development.

The energy transition in the agricultural sector is not only an ecological necessity. It is an element of economic modernization and national competitiveness. And right now, Kazakhstan has the opportunity to turn this potential into a lasting systemic advantage.

https://qazaqgreen.com/en/journal-qazaqgreen/industry-news/3577/