Recently, inbusiness.kz reported on a KEGOC presentation, which indicated the need to suspend the launch of new renewable energy projects in Kazakhstan. To clarify the situation on this delicate issue, the publication’s correspondent asked the power system operator for a comment. Director of the National Electric Grid (NEG) Development Department of KEGOC Zhenis Dyusenov commented on the publication’s questions.

– Mr. Dyusenov, in February at a meeting in Kazenergy, a KEGOC presentation was given on the role of renewable energy sources in the energy system in the coming years. What surprised me most was the quote that it is necessary to suspend the deployment of new renewable energy projects for two to three years. Last year, the commissioning of green energy facilities was small, and not all winners of last year’s auction signed contracts. New auctions are planned for this year. Why are you insisting on suspending the deployment of new renewable energy projects now – do you mean gigawatt projects or are we talking only about auction ones?

– In fact, when we talk about the renewable energy sector, it cannot be considered in isolation from the overall energy system. This is one of the segments that is defined with its target indicators, in particular, 15% by 2030. This target task is implemented by various renewable energy support tools – they are supported through the mechanism of offtake contracts, tariffs, and so on.

The system operator, due to functional tasks, considers this situation from a technical point of view – what needs to be done to ensure the integration of growing volumes of sharply variable generation of renewable energy sources. And the figures are such that, in principle, this sector of the electric power industry is developing quite rapidly, and on average in recent years, a fairly large share of the introduced generation is occupied by renewable energy sources.

Today, about 3 GW of renewable energy sources have already been introduced into the energy system, and their share in the energy balance is about 6% for electric energy. At the same time, the value for installed capacity is much greater – this also needs to be taken into account. Moreover, mainly from technologies that are developing – these are wind and solar projects, which, by their nature, generate electricity based on the availability of primary energy resources – this is wind potential and solar energy.

Based on global practice, in order to integrate such technologies, it is necessary to create conditions in the energy system so that variable generation from the sun and wind can be integrated into the energy system without reducing the reliability of the energy system, since the target task is to ensure reliable electricity supply to consumers in Kazakhstan.

Today, many countries have ambitious plans for the development of renewable energy, conditions are being created under which it is possible to safely integrate RES into the energy system, such as maneuverable generation in all its types – this is gas, and hydropower, and energy storage systems, and other technologies. Of course, the topology of electrical networks at all levels is changing. Since most RES power plants are distributed generation.

In addition, market relations are being improved – it is necessary to develop a market for auxiliary services with appropriate tools that increase the flexibility of the energy system.

– In your presentation you indicated that by 2030 there will be a 34% share of renewable energy, although the target indicator was 15%. Is this realistic or not?

– Currently, there are plans to develop renewable energy sources through various support mechanisms. As noted above, existing contracts with renewable energy facilities currently amount to about 3 GW – they are contracted and implemented at fixed tariffs and auction prices.

In addition, there are plans to integrate about 7 GW into the energy system through the auction mechanism by 2027, and large renewable energy projects with energy storage systems are being implemented through the mechanism of intergovernmental agreements. If all projects are implemented, then, theoretically, according to estimates, the share of renewable energy could reach about 30% in the medium term.

– Are you now abandoning this phrase that it is necessary to suspend the deployment of new renewable energy projects, or not?

– In this case, the essence of the issue is that for the integration of sharply variable generation of renewable energy sources into the energy system, it is necessary to create appropriate conditions. In fact, at present, a lot of systematic work is being done in this direction, there are specific plans to increase the flexibility of the energy system and develop the National Electric Grid.

In the context of the presented materials, more was said about the rate of penetration of renewable energy sources into the energy system, which causes certain concerns. For example, on average, about 400 MW is integrated into the energy balance annually over 5 years, of course, the situation differs from year to year. Nevertheless, the average rate of introduction of renewable energy generation, depending on solar insolation and wind potential, is approximately the same.

– How much more flexible capacity is needed so that you do not insist on suspending the introduction of new renewable energy sources?

– In fact, this is a complex issue that requires a comprehensive approach and analysis. Currently, the share of coal power plants predominates and is about 70% of all power plant generation, which mainly operate with a base load, as well as gas power plants, hydroelectric power plants and some share of renewable energy sources.

When RES are involved, the structure, of course, changes, and approaches to dispatching the work of traditional stations, including coal and gas stations, naturally change to the extent of technological capabilities. It is necessary to balance consumption and generation in order to avoid disruption of the stability of the energy system, the occurrence of unplanned flows with adjacent energy systems operating synchronously with the energy system of Kazakhstan.

Of course, when we talk about maneuverable generation, it is necessary to take into account the technological capabilities of maneuvering, first of all, this is the speed of generation loading and unloading, regulation limits, and other parameters that differ for all technologies.

In addition to technological differences, it is necessary to take into account the different timing of the introduction of generation, which, as a rule, renewable energy power plants (solar and wind) are objectively built faster than traditional generation, which requires infrastructure – gas, grid, rail, water supply, etc. Large regulating hydroelectric power plants are no exception, significant work is required to build hydraulic structures, as a rule, the introduction takes about 5 years.

Therefore, plans for the introduction of renewable energy sources and traditional maneuverable generation must be synchronized.

– Mini hydroelectric power plants also require four years.

– The so-called small hydroelectric power plants or run-of-river power plants, operating along a watercourse, are, of course, built faster. I am talking more about large regulating hydroelectric power plants, which are necessary for daily and seasonal regulation, which are used in case of production failures or excess renewable energy. Design and construction in these projects are certainly technologically more complex, but work in this direction is underway.

– Let’s assume that the introduction of new renewable energy sources is suspended this year. Until what year should it be suspended – until 2028?

– As has already been said, in this matter much depends on the implementation of plans for flexible energy sources. Synchronous development of all segments is important, and work is being carried out in all directions in parallel to speed up.

– What can KEGOC  do for its part  to solve the problem? Right now, the southern zone will be reinforced and a direct current line will be built – is that enough or are any other measures needed from KEGOC? 

– KEGOC is really carrying out a lot of complex work – this includes the development of the National Electric Grid, digitalization, technological development, predictive modeling of possible scenarios, and much more. All these measures are ultimately aimed at solving the main task – reliable power supply for the growing volume of electricity consumption and electrical loads, including in conditions with significant penetration of sharply variable generation of renewable energy sources into the energy balance.

Much work has been done in this direction – a major study “Vision for the Development of the National Electric Grid until 2035” has been completed, within the framework of which a pool of relevant projects for the development of the NES was determined, which includes the unification of the western zone in two stages, strengthening the western and southern energy zones, the “North-South” direction, as well as other projects. Today there is a clear comprehensive vision of what needs to be done. As a result, the target model for the development of the National Electric Grid will allow the energy system of Kazakhstan to be looped with 500 kV lines that will cover almost all regions. This program is being implemented in stages.

For example, large investment projects to strengthen the southern zone of the unified energy system (UES) of the Republic of Kazakhstan and to unite the western zone with the energy system, which involve the construction of a 500 kV line with a total length of more than 1000 km, are already being successfully and in the shortest possible time.

– If we do not stop deploying renewable energy sources this year, do you have any forecast given that consumption is growing? Let’s say, by 2028, when gigawatt projects have not yet been introduced, how much will electricity imports from the Russian Federation increase, which will continue to increase the price of electricity within the country? If we have a minimum available capacity of 16 GW, and peak consumption is 17.1 GW, with a growing share of renewable energy sources, will Russia be able to provide us with that much imported electricity?

– In this matter, it is necessary, of course, to address directly the system operator of the Russian Federation. There are certain objective factors related to the capacity of interstate lines, the growth of energy consumption in the energy system of the Russian Federation, etc.

In terms of the imbalances created by renewable energy power plants, special attention should be paid to the quality of the forecasts they generate for the next day. In particular, there is currently a certain problem associated with the fact that investors who invest in solar and wind generation are, unfortunately, not sufficiently interested in having high-quality forecasts; this still needs to be worked on; right now, there is an active discussion between experts on specialized platforms.

– They said that fines for poor forecasting would be introduced.

— It is indeed assumed that newly introduced renewable energy projects will be held accountable for the imbalances they create. At the same time, existing projects, the volume of which currently amounts to about 3 GW, do not have such incentives to build a high-quality generation forecast.

In these issues, it is necessary to find mutually acceptable solutions that take into account both the issues of reliability of the energy system and the application of advanced international practices that are widely available in the world, taking into account the interests of investors.

In fact, high-quality forecasting of future renewable energy production is an absolute necessity today and the most accessible solution, according to many experts in the field of renewable energy.

– You talk about protecting the interests of investors, but in the presentation you claim that it is necessary to suspend the introduction of new renewable energy sources. How should an investor who is currently installing, for example, wind towers, feel after reading this? In this regard, are you sending some kind of signal to investors so that they no longer engage in renewable energy sources in Kazakhstan, or not?

– Of course, no one is giving such signals, the essence of the presented material is completely different. For example, it is no secret now that energy systems with significant penetration of renewable energy sources into the energy balance are forced to introduce certain restrictions on the generation of renewable energy sources at critical moments for the reliability of electricity supply to consumers in order to ensure stable operation of their energy systems – the so-called curtailment arises.

This issue is being addressed and appropriate measures are being taken to eliminate or minimize it. There is an understanding that this may have a negative impact on renewable energy generation facilities, so appropriate proactive work is being carried out on this issue, including studying best practices, modeling possible scenarios, and developing solutions. In particular, in addition to maneuverable generation and network development, issues of developing a new element of balance regulation are being worked out, not only from the generation side, but also from the consumption side, the so-called demand response (demand regulation or active demand – Ed.) – this is precisely the segment of the auxiliary services market and the balancing market.

– Do you mean energy storage systems (ESS)?

– Not necessarily energy storage systems. Technologically, these could be both energy storage systems and consumers who regulate their energy consumption to meet the needs of the energy system with appropriate financial incentives, and so-called demand aggregators. All of these are segments of a large market that will experience significant development in the future.

In parallel with legislative initiatives, work is being carried out on the technological part, specialists are creating technical reserves for their future connection to automatic control and regulation systems, and preparing the corresponding work algorithms. Of course, this mechanism is a necessary condition for the effective integration of renewable energy sources.

– What do you, as KEGOC, do for this – aggregate, regulate demand, or give orders to metallurgical plants?

– KEGOC is also working on this issue. Today, a centralized system for automatic frequency and power regulation (AFPR) has already been put into operation and is actively used. This is a complex that can work with both generation and consumption. Its operating algorithms are currently being actively improved for new elements, including energy storage systems.

In fact, this is a basic tool that is designed to regulate the balance of the power system in real time and automatically according to specified algorithms. For example, there are initiatives to introduce energy storage systems. These systems must be connected to the AFMS, and the AFMS will receive an additional regulation resource. Some traditional power plants are already connected to this AFMS tool, and this resource must be expanded to integrate renewable energy sources.

In the future, through the combination and synergy of all technologies, the issue of dispatching and ensuring the balance of consumption and generation with the maintenance of the necessary balance flows, control and increase of network capacity, prevention of emergency modes through predictive automation, etc. will be resolved.

As you understand, this is a complex integrated system, the fruit of the labor of many specialists, and in KEGOC it works effectively and is being improved. In fact, this is a really huge step forward, forming a reserve not only for the integration of renewable energy sources, solving complex problems of increasing the reliability of the energy system as a whole.

– You say that there is no need for priority dispatching of renewable energy sources – in any case, this will harm the interests of investors.

– Priority dispatching is a mechanism that was used at the initial stages of renewable energy development as a necessary support measure. Now there is an understanding that this market segment has successfully established itself and, according to forecasts, will make up a fairly large share in the generation structure.

It is necessary to understand that after a certain share of RES in the energy system, according to the experience of countries where the share of RES has increased significantly, difficulties may arise with reducing the inertia of energy systems. Currently, possible solutions to this problem are being actively discussed in the world, increasing the stability of the energy system to emergency situations and its so-called survivability with significant use of inverter technologies, which RES are equipped with, while simultaneously reducing the share of traditional synchronous generation.

In the focus of this issue, special attention must be paid to technological solutions, it is important to apply the most modern and, of course, proven solutions in our country. Work in this direction is underway, both regulatory issues and the technological component are being worked out – this is not a one-day job.

The main thing in this matter is predictability, to see possible risks in a timely manner and take the necessary measures to prevent the occurrence of such difficulties in the energy systems of our country in the future.

In this sense, renewable energy sources are a kind of catalyst in energy systems, stimulating technological development around the world and posing more and more new challenges to the specialists in the electric power industry. And today there is absolutely no doubt that all these issues will be successfully resolved.

– The first renewable energy projects that were commissioned at fixed tariffs several years ago – their contracts will expire by the 2030s. Are these large volumes or not? Do you take this into account in your forecasts?

– Yes, these projects are taken into account in the energy balance forecasts since the life cycles of these projects are longer than the term of the PPA contracts (Power Purchase Agreement – ​​Ed.). After the contract with the settlement and financial center is completed, these projects will continue to supply electricity to the unified network, and from a technical point of view there are no significant changes.

– You have a forecast that in 2027 the notorious deficit that supposedly exists will end. What is this optimistic assessment based on?

– It should be noted that the materials indicate a scenario taking into account the introduction of planned generation in accordance with the plans for the introduction of generating capacities planned by the authorized body, where the type of technology, location, and year of introduction are indicated. In general, this, like any forecast, is a scenario analysis.

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