More than 80 million hectares of land in Central Asia are degraded or declining, according to a new thematic report of the Global Land Outlook prepared under the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The report is due to be officially presented on August 26 at COP17 in Ulaanbaatar.

The report covers Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and examines land and pasture degradation, soil conditions, water scarcity, drought, climate change and land restoration efforts.

Economic losses reach billions of dollars

Citing earlier studies, the report estimates that land degradation costs Central Asia between $2 billion and nearly $6 billion annually.

The variation reflects different assessment methods, which take into account declining crop yields, deteriorating pastures, loss of land productivity and other consequences of degradation.

The main threats identified in the report include soil erosion and salinization, pasture degradation, drought, desertification, and sand and dust storms.

Nearly a third of Tajikistan showed deterioration

A separate section focuses on Tajikistan, where mountains cover more than 93% of the territory. The country’s terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to water erosion, landslides, mudflows and pasture degradation.

According to an assessment covering 2001–2018, land conditions deteriorated across 29.5% of Tajikistan’s territory, while 18.2% showed improvement and 33.5% remained stable. Data were unavailable for 18.8% of the country.

The report stresses that these figures measure changes in land conditions during 2001–2018 under the SDG 15.3.1 indicator and should not be interpreted as the current share of degraded land in Tajikistan.

Climate change adds pressure

The report links land degradation closely to climate change and water resources.

Under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario, Tajikistan could lose up to 80% of its glaciers by 2100, according to an assessment cited in the report. The figure represents a scenario rather than an inevitable forecast.

Sand and dust storms also pose a growing threat. Dust and salt particles can travel long distances, with material from the dried-up Aral Sea region potentially reaching Central Asia’s mountains and settling on glaciers in the Pamirs.

Tajikistan leads region in registered sustainable practices

The report also highlights examples of sustainable land management.

Tajikistan has registered 124 technologies and 57 approaches in the international WOCAT sustainable land management database — the highest number among Central Asian countries.

These include slope terracing, vegetation restoration, improved pasture management and techniques designed to conserve soil and moisture in mountainous areas.

The report also notes Tajikistan’s international initiatives related to water resources and glacier protection.

What the report recommends

The authors urge Central Asian countries to follow the principle of “avoid, reduce, restore”: prevent degradation where possible, limit its impact and restore already damaged land.

Recommended measures include better land monitoring, greater use of satellite and ground-based data, sharing successful technologies between countries, restoring pastures and strengthening regional cooperation on drought, water and glacier issues.

The Global Land Outlook Central Asia Thematic Report is scheduled to be presented on August 26 during COP17 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, being held in Ulaanbaatar from August 17 to 28.