The climate crisis is predicted to destroy thousands of glaciers a year around the world, threatening water supplies and cultural heritage.
According to the study, glaciers in the European Alps are likely to reach their peak rate of loss in just eight years, with more than 100 of them expected to melt completely by 2033. Glaciers in the western United States and Canada are projected to peak in less than a decade, with more than 800 glaciers disappearing annually by then.
Glacier melting, caused by human-induced global warming, is one of the most visible signs of the climate crisis. Communities around the world are already holding mourning ceremonies for lost glaciers, and the Global Glacier Loss Registry is recording the names and stories of those lost.
There are currently about 200,000 glaciers worldwide, and about 750 are disappearing each year. However, the study indicates that this rate will accelerate dramatically if emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to enter the atmosphere.
Current government climate plans are projected to increase global temperatures by approximately 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, exacerbating extreme weather events. Under this scenario, annual glacier loss will peak in 2040—around 3,000 per year—and persist at this rate until 2060. By the end of the century, 80% of current glaciers will have disappeared.
By comparison, if emissions were cut rapidly and warming were kept to 1.5°C, annual losses could be limited to about 2,000 glaciers by 2040, after which the rate would begin to decline.
Previous studies have focused on the volume of ice loss, considering its contribution to sea level rise, which threatens coastal cities. However, individual glaciers are also important as water sources and tourist attractions for many communities, and often hold spiritual significance for local residents. This prompted the researchers to analyze the number of glaciers disappearing.
“As glaciologists, we not only model the disappearance of glaciers around the world, but we also experience this loss directly in our daily work,” said Matthias Huss, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich and a member of the research team.
As head of the Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network, Huss recently declared four glaciers extinct—the last of approximately 1,000 lost in the country over the past three decades. Huss also spoke at the Pizol Glacier farewell ceremony in 2019. “More than 250 people climbed up to that glacier to say goodbye. It was very impressive.”
Similar mourning ceremonies were also held in Iceland, Nepal, and other countries. “People are climbing to these disappearing glaciers to say their goodbyes in person, but also to send a strong message to the public: this is important to us.”
Many glaciers have spiritual significance; for example, in Māori culture, they are considered ancestors. Māori political leader Ngā Lisa Tūmahai, visiting the melting Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere glacier in 2022, said in an interview for the Global Glacier Loss Registry:
“This mighty glacier, once so imperiously present here, is shrinking, fading into oblivion. It has been tamed, humiliated by the actions of people. To see this retreating giant is to understand the fragility of everything, to understand the real and horrific consequences of industrialization and climate change.”
In a new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change , scientists analyzed over 200,000 glaciers using satellite imagery. The researchers used three global glacier models to estimate their fate under various warming scenarios.
Based on materials from The Guardian
Translation and adaptation: Timur Idrisov
Environmental group “Bear’s Corner”
Google machine translated