Experts cite the climate crisis, corruption, and infrastructure problems as the main factors behind water conflicts.

Since 2022, their number has almost doubled, yet very little is being done to understand and address this trend and prevent new and growing risks.

According to the American think tank Pacific Institute, 419 incidents involving “water clashes” were recorded in 2024, compared to 235 in 2022. The institute has been collecting evidence of conflicts over water for decades, where it has served as a pretext for violence, a weapon, and an object of destruction.

“We’re seeing conflicts on the rise, and they’re becoming multifactorial,” notes Peter Gleick, co-founder of the Pacific Institute. “The climate crisis and extreme weather events play a role, but there are many other causes, too: the failure of states to perform their functions, government incompetence or corruption, and the lack or misuse of infrastructure.”

Joanna Trevor of Oxfam confirms that the charity sector is also seeing an increase in local conflicts due to water shortages caused by climate change.

Geography of Conflicts: From Gaza to Central Asia

Recent examples include tensions between India and Pakistan over the Indus River water-sharing agreement following the terrorist attack; Russia’s strikes on hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine; Israel’s destruction of water systems in Gaza; and protests over water shortages in South Africa.

“In Gaza, Israel systematically uses water as a weapon,” says Joanna Trevor. “Water systems and desalination plants have been deliberately destroyed, and repairs have been blocked. Sewage has contaminated drinking water due to the destruction of sewer systems, and people have been attacked even while queuing for water.”

“In East Africa and the Sahel, water shortages are forcing people to migrate to new areas, which is triggering clashes with local populations,” she adds.

Politicization of transboundary river issues

In some places, politics has exacerbated an already precarious situation. Peter Gleick points to the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers in the United States: “Treaties dating back to 1944 obligate the United States to supply Colorado water to Mexico, and Mexico to supply Rio Grande water to the United States. However, amid the tightening of border policies under the Trump administration, these issues have become highly contentious. In Mexico, several people were killed during a protest at a dam used to supply water to the United States: farmers were protesting the planned release of water.”

Peter noted that there are also lesser-known disputes in Central Asia that could flare up again. “Water tensions have been simmering between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan for a long time. Furthermore, Afghanistan is constructing a very large-scale project—the Kosh-Tepa Canal—to divert water from the Amu Darya River. If it is commissioned, it will significantly reduce water flow to the Central Asian republics.”

The era of “water bankruptcy”

The UN is sounding the alarm: by 2030, global demand for freshwater is projected to exceed supply by 40%. The Institute for Water, Environment and Health at the United Nations University has officially declared that the world has entered an era of “water bankruptcy.”

According to UNESCO, about 40% of the planet’s population lives in transboundary river and lake basins, but only a fifth of countries have agreements on the equitable sharing of resources.

Joanna Trevor emphasizes: “Legally binding treaties are needed to guarantee the human right to water. Current agreements are often voluntary and rely solely on the goodwill of the parties.”

Despite the grim statistics, Peter Gleick remains cautiously optimistic: “We can solve water problems. I’m not saying it will happen tomorrow, but it is possible. We can adapt to climate change, ensure people’s basic rights to water, restore ecosystems, and reduce the risk of armed conflict over water resources.”

Source: The Guardian

Translation and adaptation: Timur Idrisov

Environmental group “Bear’s Corner”

Google machine translated