The Aral Sea problem is a global one, and we must all work together to address it. This idea was voiced on April 22 at the Regional Environmental Summit in Astana, where the impacts of climate change, water shortages, land degradation, and increasing desertification in Central Asia were discussed.

Scientific basis for combating desertification

In my opinion, Uzbekistan put forward a very important initiative at this summit: granting regional status to the Center for Combating Desertification and Drought Prevention at Green University, which is a center for environmental science.

Desertification is the product of a complex interaction between the socioeconomic system (disease, poverty, famine, economic insecurity) and natural factors (drought, water erosion, soil salinization, vegetation degradation). These factors can easily mutually reinforce each other and have a feedback loop in the desertification process.

Consolidation at the center of scientific potential will enable the creation of a powerful system for monitoring land degradation and salt-dust emissions, which often occur on the dried bed of the Aral Sea.

An estimated 150 million tons of salt, dust, and sand rise into the air annually from the dried Aral Sea bed, which covers approximately 6 million hectares within Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. These particles mix with clouds and are carried up to 1,000 km away, falling as salty rain and snow, harming cities, rural areas, agriculture, and human health.

 

The main sources of runoff remain puffy and partially crusted salt marshes, whose area on the drained bottom is approximately 450 thousand hectares. These areas are devoid of vegetation, and it is quite common to see the formation ofdeflation ulcersIf we previously predicted that the area of ​​saline soil on the drained seabed would rapidly increase each year, this has already happened.

Such areas are very difficult to afforestate—the existing desert plants cannot withstand severe salinity. Therefore, a search is underway for plants that can thrive on saline soils with close groundwater levels.

For the past two years, a plant called Arundo donax (tall reed) has been successfully tested on the dried Aral Seabed. It tolerates both soil and groundwater salinity. This year, the experiment was conducted on a 2-hectare area using biogel and betaine. The first positive results have already been obtained.

What has already been done on the dried-up Aral Sea bed?

The problem of sparse vegetation on the dried seabed has existed for over 50 years. For a long time, work was carried out locally and without significant impact. This work took on a new dimension after 2018, when a state program for reforestation of the dried seabed of the Aral Sea was adopted.

As a result, over 2 million hectares of protective forest plantations have been created to date. In these areas, deflation processes have almost completely stopped—a single saxaul bush can retain over 1 ton of sandy substrate.

The scientific foundation for this work was laid by scientists from the Forestry Research Institute, who began their research in 1981. During this time, they have completed over 20 research projects. Based on these findings, the Agency for the Increase of Forests and Green Zones and Combating Desertification is conducting reforestation work on the dried bed of the Aral Sea.

Why Vegetation Is Critically Important—And Not Just for Ecology

At the Regional Environmental Summit, it was noted that due to the drying up of the Aral Sea, summer temperatures in the Aral Sea region have increased by an average of 2-2.5 degrees Celsius, aridity has intensified, and winters have become colder. The massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the resulting loss of oxygen, are leading to climate change and global warming. Central Asia is experiencing this effect most severely.

Therefore, Uzbekistan intends to cover 80% of the reclaimed riverbed with vegetation by 2030. In the spring of 2026, Uzbek foresters created 115,000 hectares of protective forest plantations. Plantations on the reclaimed riverbed are invaluable. They are a biological factor capable of restoring the Aral Sea region’s population to a healthy lifestyle and solving the problem of providing animals with feed. They can also minimize soil deflation, which will positively impact air quality, reduce carbon dioxide, and increase oxygen.

Our research has shown that one hectare of 4-year-old saxaul and cherkez absorbs 1,158.2 kg and 1,547.8 kg of carbon dioxide, respectively, and releases 835.4 kg and 1,116.4 kg of oxygen, respectively. Large-scale afforestation of the reclaimed seabed will help reduce global warming. This is a significant contribution by Uzbekistan to fulfilling its international obligations.

Ten-year-old saxaul bush.

Experts estimate that by 2040, the water deficit in the Aral Sea basin could nearly double, reaching 20 billion cubic meters per year. Forest plantings on the drained seabed, located perpendicular to prevailing winds, reduce the wind’s kinetic energy and thereby conserve soil moisture, as evaporation is reduced by 40% and relative humidity increases by 30%. This creates favorable conditions for the growth of herbaceous vegetation in the inter-row and inter-strip spaces.

Economic activity in the desert

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev previously coined the term “desert economy,” which means that desert development must be approached scientifically and reap dividends. The dried bed of the Aral Sea in Uzbekistan covers approximately 3.2 million hectares, and leaving this territory without economic and environmental use is unacceptable. This calls for a comprehensive approach, whereby forest stands become the basis for grazing livestock, beekeeping, medicinal plant cultivation, ecotourism, and scientific exchange.

However, humans are both victims of desertification and its agents. It is humans, psychologically predisposed to the inexhaustibility of desert resources, who most often fail to attach sufficient importance to their actions, which contribute to the expansion of desert boundaries and further land loss.

It’s alarming that large-scale exploration and gas production are currently underway on the dried-out Aral Seabed, searching for new deposits. The fragile ecosystem is being destroyed by heavy vehicles. While this is normal—the region is developing—it’s also necessary to simultaneously reforest the area using the gas industry. Forest plantings should be prioritized here, and they should be considered more broadly than simply plants planted on marginal land.

The plantings on the dried bed of the Aral Sea have important ecological, economic and social significance.

Environmental benefits. Plants, including forage plants, bind the soil with their roots, thereby preventing its degradation. Consequently, less salt and dust are carried away, which then settle on irrigated lands and reduce their fertility. The air becomes cleaner, which will have a positive impact on the gene pool of the local population.

Economic. Forest-friendly types of drained bottom sediments provide a sustainable forage base for livestock farming. We have developed methods for creating pastures on drained bottoms and prepared scientific recommendations, the implementation of which will enable the creation of desert shrub pastures with a productivity of over 500 forage units per hectare, which will facilitate the intensive development of livestock farming in the region. The number of grazing animals for local residents could increase by 30-40%.

Social. There’s a shortage of jobs in the Aral Sea region, leading people to often leave for work in Kazakhstan, Russia, and other countries. It would be practical to create multi-component shrub pastures on the drained riverbed, allowing local residents to develop livestock farming. Farmers who can collectively graze 40-50 cows could be provided with mini-dairy processing plants and transportation to collect their goods for sale. People would feel appreciated for their work and be able to provide for themselves.

What else needs to be done for the Aral Sea?

Over the past 40 years, while I’ve been working on the dried-up bed of the Aral Sea, managing scientific projects, I’ve presented concrete proposals at conferences. They’ve always been enthusiastically supported, but nothing has changed. Therefore, based on the materials of the Regional Environmental Summit, I’d like to reiterate my proposals in the hope that they will be heard.

Two-year-old saxaul bush.

1. There must be a fundamental document that reflects the actual situation across the entire drained riverbed. Unfortunately, foresters in all Central Asian republics lack such a document, without which it is impossible to truly assess the environmental situation on the drained riverbed.

The President of Uzbekistan proposed creating a Unified Regional Atlas of Environmental Changes in Central Asia. The atlas is intended to become a fundamental scientific and analytical framework, clearly reflecting the dynamics of desertification and land degradation processes.

In my opinion, it is also necessary to develop a Unified System for Forest Reclamation of the Dried Aral Seabed for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. This document should reflect:

• the degree of soil salinity in the root zone;
• the territory’s susceptibility to deflation;
• type of bottom sediments;
• the groundwater level and the degree of its mineralization;
• degree of coverage by herbaceous and woody-shrubby vegetation.

These criteria will allow us to establish the order of forest reclamation work on the drained bottom, select the necessary technology and range of desert plants, and calculate the necessary costs using calculation and technological maps.

It is important to ensure a more rigorous approach to the use of public funds—it is necessary to reconsider the method of creating forest plantations on a massive basis without taking into account soil conditions, and instead strengthen the use of local, focal, and pasture-protective technologies.

2. It is advisable to develop a transnational program for combating environmental crises, based on scientific research. The Aral Sea problem requires the consolidated efforts of all countries in the region. Only joint efforts can curb the development of the environmental crisis and develop sustainable solutions. It would be appropriate to develop such a program through intergovernmental projects that would become the common property of the region.

3. To obtain a complete and realistic picture of the afforestation of the drained bottom, it is necessary to conduct an inventory of the created forest plantations on the drained bottom and constantly monitor their condition.

4. Back in 2018, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed creating a Regional Center for Growing Desert and Forage Plant Seedlings. This proposal should be implemented immediately, as the industry urgently needs high-quality forage planting material .

Initially, this will be a regional center, and later, by joining forces with foresters in Kazakhstan, an International Center for Growing Forage Plant Seedlings could be established. This center will include a forest nursery established in the Kazakh city of Kazalinsk and a forest nursery located in Karakalpakstan. Scientists from the Forestry Research Institutes of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will develop comprehensive recommendations for growing seedlings.

It would be appropriate to establish a research laboratory equipped with instruments within the center’s nursery, where young scientists could conduct research and write dissertations. The center could also provide internship opportunities for students from relevant university departments, students from “green technical schools,” and undergraduate and graduate students at Green University.

5. It is necessary to develop a Cluster for the use of afforested drained bottoms in economic circulation, while developing pasture-protective afforestation, beekeeping, and the development of a seed base of elite desert and forage plants.

6. We need to develop regulations for the development of ecotourism in the environmental disaster zone based on scientific research. I believe the Muynak-Kazalinsk area is a promising area for ecotourism. This could include extreme ecotourism on horseback, camel, ATV, and on foot; scientific, research, educational, and so on.

I believe these proposals are important for the future of the vast, drained Aral Sea area and can be developed jointly with scientists from neighboring countries, primarily Kazakhstan, within the framework of regional projects involving international organizations.

Many years of experience working on the dried seabed allow us to state that forest plantations are currently the only real solution to the environmental problem of the Aral Sea.

About the author

Zinoviy Bogdanovich Novitsky is an Honored Worker of Agriculture of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Academician, and Head of the Laboratory of Protective Afforestation and Forest Melioration at the Forestry Research Institute.

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