— What key global climate priorities should governments focus on today?

“I think the key message from the IPCC reports, updated to reflect new data, is that it’s almost inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5-degree global warming target in the coming years. This doesn’t mean we can’t return to the 1.5-degree target later—by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. I think it means there are two priorities. First, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible to prevent even more significant temperature increases in the 21st century.”

Furthermore, since exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold is virtually inevitable, we need to pay much more attention to the impacts of climate change and adaptation to the changes that are already inevitable; indeed, we are already seeing them today. I believe these are two key areas: focusing on reducing emissions while simultaneously learning to adapt to the inevitable climate changes we face.

— How would you assess the most acute climate risks facing Central Asia today?

“I think one of the key findings of the latest IPCC report concerns the consequences of glacier melting. If current policies continue and global warming reaches approximately 2.5–3°C, we could see significant glacier shrinkage. This will seriously impact water availability and exacerbate water shortages in Central Asia—and this will be a critical factor.”

There are other risks, too: the risk of extreme weather events, floods, severe storms, and so on. Furthermore, it’s clear that we’ll see much more extreme heat this summer, which could make it difficult, for example, to work safely outdoors. These are challenges we’re already facing. I think flooding is one of those that needs to be addressed first.

Impacts on agriculture are also expected: as the climate warms, the productivity of agricultural systems will decline.

— How might water shortages and melting glaciers affect the long-term stability of the region?

“The risks are truly significant. If we continue with current policies, global warming could reach around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This has enormous consequences, and one of the key ones is the shrinking of glaciers. We could see a 50-70% reduction in glacier mass by the end of the century.”

This will not necessarily result in the same impact on water flows, but water flow from glaciated regions could be significantly reduced within a century, which will obviously impact human living conditions and agriculture in Kazakhstan.

We often hear about climate goals, but their implementation remains slow. What are the most effective ways to accelerate real action?

“Although greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, it’s worth noting that the measures already taken have prevented even greater emissions. They would have been higher than they are now if no climate action had been taken. I believe the two most important areas are, for example, expanding the use of renewable energy and displacing fossil fuels from electricity systems.”

Kazakhstan’s potential for this is, in fact, quite significant. Furthermore, if low-carbon electricity can be secured, its use in end-use consumption can be expanded. For example, the transition to electric vehicles—China has already made significant progress in this area.

Another important point: in regions where oil and gas production continues, reducing pipeline leaks, especially methane leaks, is a very quick and effective step. This is often even cost-effective and can pay for itself. Therefore, developing renewable energy and reducing methane emissions, in my view, are key priorities that will help us move in the right direction.

— Do you think that the use of alternative energy sources, such as hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants, will be the next step towards progress?

— Yes. Anything that replaces fossil fuels in the power sector is one of the most obvious paths forward. Countries around the world are transitioning to renewable energy, and some are even choosing nuclear power. It’s a matter of choice, often more tied to energy security than climate goals.

Kazakhstan plans to build its first nuclear power plant. How do you assess the role of nuclear energy in reducing emissions and supporting the low-carbon transition?

Replacing fossil fuel-based systems with low-emission alternatives is an important step toward reducing climate change. In this context, nuclear energy can play a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of a broader low-carbon energy system.

— How important is international cooperation in the fight against climate change today compared to ten years ago?

Climate change is a global problem, and a common approach is needed to address it. Despite all the difficulties, countries need to unite and jointly discuss this common problem. We understand perfectly well, and we’re not naive about it, that there are challenges related to energy security and the complex geopolitical situation. But frankly, there’s no alternative to collective global discussions, because the problem is truly global in nature.

— What are your expectations from international platforms such as the Regional Environmental Summit 2026?

“I think it’s crucial for people from different parts of the world with common interests to collaborate—not just on climate change but on other environmental issues as well. This is perhaps the first time the IPCC has actually visited the Central Asian region. We are very pleased to participate in the regional summit, as it’s clear that the countries in the region face common problems and challenges. We are pleased to come and contribute to the discussions in Astana.”

We haven’t had much contact with the Central Asian region. However, we are very pleased that the IPCC authors included representatives from the region who contributed to important reports, such as the Special Report on Climate Change and Land Use. We hope for even more active participation by scientists from Central Asia in the IPCC’s work.

It was previously reported that the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) highly values ​​Central Asia’s chances of overcoming the water crisis.

Google machine translated