The Central Bank presented a map of six climate risks for Uzbekistan and assessed their potential impact on the financial system. A one-degree temperature increase could increase electricity demand by 0.5-8.5%. During hot weather, labor productivity in construction could decline by 20-30%.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a map of regional vulnerability to earthquakes, water shortages, floods, landslides, and extreme heat. The assessment is included in the Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review for 2025.
In it, the regulator considers climate change as a source of physical and transitional risks for the economy and financial system.
Physical risks include economic losses due to extreme weather events, water shortages, and natural disasters. Transition risks relate to changes in legislation, technology, and government policies during the transition to a low-carbon economy. Such changes can impact the value of companies’ assets and liabilities, as well as their ability to service loans.
Where climate risks are highest
The map presented in the review covers six types of hazards: earthquakes, water shortages, river and urban flooding, landslides, and extreme heat. Regions are divided into three risk categories: low, medium, and high.
For each region, the Central Bank used the highest risk level identified among the districts within it. The data source cited was the ThinkHazard natural hazard assessment service.
The highest seismic vulnerability is observed in the Andijan, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, and Kashkadarya regions, as well as in Tashkent. The remaining territories are characterized by a moderate earthquake risk.
In the western regions, water shortages pose the main threat . The risk is exacerbated in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi, and Bukhara regions due to low rainfall, arid climate, and soil salinization.
According to the review, precipitation in the west of the country is almost 10 times lower than in the southeastern regions. In the Khorezm region and Karakalpakstan, the proportion of moderately and highly saline lands is 41% and 40%, respectively. A significant amount of water is required to leach these lands.
Due to low rainfall, irrigation is essential for agriculture. This sector accounts for nearly 90% of available water resources. In 2024, agriculture accounted for 18% of nominal GDP and 23% of total employment.
The risk of river flooding remains across most of the country, particularly near large bodies of water and river headwaters. The risk of urban flooding is assessed as moderate in the Khorezm, Jizzakh, and Andijan regions, low in Tashkent and the Syrdarya region, and high in other regions.
The increasing area of ​​paved roads, concrete sidewalks, and other impermeable surfaces limits water absorption into the soil. This increases the likelihood of water accumulation and flooding in low-lying areas.
Water shortages could reach 15 billion cubic meters.
The Central Bank notes that population growth and industrialization are increasing the demand for surface and groundwater, while climate change is reducing their availability.
By 2050, the Amu Darya River’s flow could decrease by 5%, and the Syr Darya’s by 15%. The annual water deficit in Uzbekistan is expected to reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. Rising average temperatures could also increase evaporation and further increase water demand.
Agriculture remains the most vulnerable sector, accounting for 92% of total freshwater consumption. Meanwhile, the share of loans to agricultural enterprises in the total bank loan portfolio increased from 9.1% to 10.1% by 2025.
The Central Bank believes that agriculture’s high dependence on water increases its vulnerability to climate change. Financial losses to businesses due to drought, water shortages, extreme heat, or measures to transition to a low-carbon economy could increase the likelihood of loan defaults and bank losses.
Risk of landslides
The highest risk of landslides in Uzbekistan is concentrated in mountainous areas. Mountains cover approximately 90,000 square kilometers of the country’s territory, and 17% of this area is at risk of landslides.
Approximately 65-70% of landslides occur due to melting snow, precipitation and the influence of groundwater, 20-25% as a result of earthquakes, and another 15-20% due to man-made factors.
There is a high risk of landslides in the Tashkent, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions. This is due to the steep terrain, heavy precipitation, and seismic activity.
The Navoi region is classified as having a medium risk due to its relatively small mountainous area. In the flat and desert regions—Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, and Syrdarya regions, as well as in Tashkent—the landslide risk is assessed as low due to the flat terrain and the absence of major mountain ranges.
Heat can reduce productivity
The review also notes increasing risks associated with extreme heat . Uzbekistan, with its arid climate, is already experiencing rising temperatures. As warming continues, climate stress is expected to intensify.
Although the risk of high temperatures is widespread throughout the country, almost all regions are classified as moderate-risk. The only region with a high risk is the Surkhandarya region. The mountains surrounding it to the west, north, and east impede the free movement of air masses and contribute to the persistence of high temperatures.
From 1950 to 2020, the average temperature in the country increased by 2.9 degrees Celsius. It is projected to rise by another 1.21–1.94 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
Rising temperatures increase the demand for electricity, especially during periods of heavy cooling use.
Although the overall risk level is assessed as moderate, rising temperatures could lead to a number of problems. According to estimates provided by the Central Bank, a one-degree temperature rise could increase electricity consumption by 0.5-8.5%. On particularly hot days, labor productivity in construction could decrease by 20-30%.
The Central Bank notes that the realization of climate risks could worsen the financial position of borrowers, reduce the value of collateral, and increase bank loan losses. Therefore, the regulator believes it is necessary to consider the vulnerability of industries and regions when assessing the stability of the financial system.
The Central Bank presented a map of six climate risks for Uzbekistan and assessed their potential impact on the financial system. A one-degree temperature increase could increase electricity demand by 0.5-8.5%. During hot weather, labor productivity in construction could decline by 20-30%.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a map of regional vulnerability to earthquakes, water shortages, floods, landslides, and extreme heat. The assessment is included in the Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review for 2025.
In it, the regulator considers climate change as a source of physical and transitional risks for the economy and financial system.
Physical risks include economic losses due to extreme weather events, water shortages, and natural disasters. Transition risks relate to changes in legislation, technology, and government policies during the transition to a low-carbon economy. Such changes can impact the value of companies’ assets and liabilities, as well as their ability to service loans.
Where climate risks are highest
The map presented in the review covers six types of hazards: earthquakes, water shortages, river and urban flooding, landslides, and extreme heat. Regions are divided into three risk categories: low, medium, and high.
For each region, the Central Bank used the highest risk level identified among the districts within it. The data source cited was the ThinkHazard natural hazard assessment service.
The highest seismic vulnerability is observed in the Andijan, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, and Kashkadarya regions, as well as in Tashkent. The remaining territories are characterized by a moderate earthquake risk.
In the western regions, water shortages pose the main threat . The risk is exacerbated in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi, and Bukhara regions due to low rainfall, arid climate, and soil salinization.
According to the review, precipitation in the west of the country is almost 10 times lower than in the southeastern regions. In the Khorezm region and Karakalpakstan, the proportion of moderately and highly saline lands is 41% and 40%, respectively. A significant amount of water is required to leach these lands.
Due to low rainfall, irrigation is essential for agriculture. This sector accounts for nearly 90% of available water resources. In 2024, agriculture accounted for 18% of nominal GDP and 23% of total employment.
The risk of river flooding remains across most of the country, particularly near large bodies of water and river headwaters. The risk of urban flooding is assessed as moderate in the Khorezm, Jizzakh, and Andijan regions, low in Tashkent and the Syrdarya region, and high in other regions.
The increasing area of ​​paved roads, concrete sidewalks, and other impermeable surfaces limits water absorption into the soil. This increases the likelihood of water accumulation and flooding in low-lying areas.
Water shortages could reach 15 billion cubic meters.
The Central Bank notes that population growth and industrialization are increasing the demand for surface and groundwater, while climate change is reducing their availability.
By 2050, the Amu Darya River’s flow could decrease by 5%, and the Syr Darya’s by 15%. The annual water deficit in Uzbekistan is expected to reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. Rising average temperatures could also increase evaporation and further increase water demand.
Agriculture remains the most vulnerable sector, accounting for 92% of total freshwater consumption. Meanwhile, the share of loans to agricultural enterprises in the total bank loan portfolio increased from 9.1% to 10.1% by 2025.
The Central Bank believes that agriculture’s high dependence on water increases its vulnerability to climate change. Financial losses to businesses due to drought, water shortages, extreme heat, or measures to transition to a low-carbon economy could increase the likelihood of loan defaults and bank losses.
Risk of landslides
The highest risk of landslides in Uzbekistan is concentrated in mountainous areas. Mountains cover approximately 90,000 square kilometers of the country’s territory, and 17% of this area is at risk of landslides.
Approximately 65-70% of landslides occur due to melting snow, precipitation and the influence of groundwater, 20-25% as a result of earthquakes, and another 15-20% due to man-made factors.
There is a high risk of landslides in the Tashkent, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions. This is due to the steep terrain, heavy precipitation, and seismic activity.
The Navoi region is classified as having a medium risk due to its relatively small mountainous area. In the flat and desert regions—Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, and Syrdarya regions, as well as in Tashkent—the landslide risk is assessed as low due to the flat terrain and the absence of major mountain ranges.
Heat can reduce productivity
The review also notes increasing risks associated with extreme heat . Uzbekistan, with its arid climate, is already experiencing rising temperatures. As warming continues, climate stress is expected to intensify.
Although the risk of high temperatures is widespread throughout the country, almost all regions are classified as moderate-risk. The only region with a high risk is the Surkhandarya region. The mountains surrounding it to the west, north, and east impede the free movement of air masses and contribute to the persistence of high temperatures.
From 1950 to 2020, the average temperature in the country increased by 2.9 degrees Celsius. It is projected to rise by another 1.21–1.94 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
Rising temperatures increase the demand for electricity, especially during periods of heavy cooling use.
Although the overall risk level is assessed as moderate, rising temperatures could lead to a number of problems. According to estimates provided by the Central Bank, a one-degree temperature rise could increase electricity consumption by 0.5-8.5%. On particularly hot days, labor productivity in construction could decrease by 20-30%.
The Central Bank notes that the realization of climate risks could worsen the financial position of borrowers, reduce the value of collateral, and increase bank loan losses. Therefore, the regulator believes it is necessary to consider the vulnerability of industries and regions when assessing the stability of the financial system.
The Central Bank presented a map of six climate risks for Uzbekistan and assessed their potential impact on the financial system. A one-degree temperature increase could increase electricity demand by 0.5-8.5%. During hot weather, labor productivity in construction could decline by 20-30%.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a map of regional vulnerability to earthquakes, water shortages, floods, landslides, and extreme heat. The assessment is included in the Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review for 2025.
In it, the regulator considers climate change as a source of physical and transitional risks for the economy and financial system.
Physical risks include economic losses due to extreme weather events, water shortages, and natural disasters. Transition risks relate to changes in legislation, technology, and government policies during the transition to a low-carbon economy. Such changes can impact the value of companies’ assets and liabilities, as well as their ability to service loans.
Where climate risks are highest
The map presented in the review covers six types of hazards: earthquakes, water shortages, river and urban flooding, landslides, and extreme heat. Regions are divided into three risk categories: low, medium, and high.
For each region, the Central Bank used the highest risk level identified among the districts within it. The data source cited was the ThinkHazard natural hazard assessment service.
The highest seismic vulnerability is observed in the Andijan, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, and Kashkadarya regions, as well as in Tashkent. The remaining territories are characterized by a moderate earthquake risk.
In the western regions, water shortages pose the main threat . The risk is exacerbated in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi, and Bukhara regions due to low rainfall, arid climate, and soil salinization.
According to the review, precipitation in the west of the country is almost 10 times lower than in the southeastern regions. In the Khorezm region and Karakalpakstan, the proportion of moderately and highly saline lands is 41% and 40%, respectively. A significant amount of water is required to leach these lands.
Due to low rainfall, irrigation is essential for agriculture. This sector accounts for nearly 90% of available water resources. In 2024, agriculture accounted for 18% of nominal GDP and 23% of total employment.
The risk of river flooding remains across most of the country, particularly near large bodies of water and river headwaters. The risk of urban flooding is assessed as moderate in the Khorezm, Jizzakh, and Andijan regions, low in Tashkent and the Syrdarya region, and high in other regions.
The increasing area of ​​paved roads, concrete sidewalks, and other impermeable surfaces limits water absorption into the soil. This increases the likelihood of water accumulation and flooding in low-lying areas.
Water shortages could reach 15 billion cubic meters.
The Central Bank notes that population growth and industrialization are increasing the demand for surface and groundwater, while climate change is reducing their availability.
By 2050, the Amu Darya River’s flow could decrease by 5%, and the Syr Darya’s by 15%. The annual water deficit in Uzbekistan is expected to reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. Rising average temperatures could also increase evaporation and further increase water demand.
Agriculture remains the most vulnerable sector, accounting for 92% of total freshwater consumption. Meanwhile, the share of loans to agricultural enterprises in the total bank loan portfolio increased from 9.1% to 10.1% by 2025.
The Central Bank believes that agriculture’s high dependence on water increases its vulnerability to climate change. Financial losses to businesses due to drought, water shortages, extreme heat, or measures to transition to a low-carbon economy could increase the likelihood of loan defaults and bank losses.
Risk of landslides
The highest risk of landslides in Uzbekistan is concentrated in mountainous areas. Mountains cover approximately 90,000 square kilometers of the country’s territory, and 17% of this area is at risk of landslides.
Approximately 65-70% of landslides occur due to melting snow, precipitation and the influence of groundwater, 20-25% as a result of earthquakes, and another 15-20% due to man-made factors.
There is a high risk of landslides in the Tashkent, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions. This is due to the steep terrain, heavy precipitation, and seismic activity.
The Navoi region is classified as having a medium risk due to its relatively small mountainous area. In the flat and desert regions—Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, and Syrdarya regions, as well as in Tashkent—the landslide risk is assessed as low due to the flat terrain and the absence of major mountain ranges.
Heat can reduce productivity
The review also notes increasing risks associated with extreme heat . Uzbekistan, with its arid climate, is already experiencing rising temperatures. As warming continues, climate stress is expected to intensify.
Although the risk of high temperatures is widespread throughout the country, almost all regions are classified as moderate-risk. The only region with a high risk is the Surkhandarya region. The mountains surrounding it to the west, north, and east impede the free movement of air masses and contribute to the persistence of high temperatures.
From 1950 to 2020, the average temperature in the country increased by 2.9 degrees Celsius. It is projected to rise by another 1.21–1.94 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
Rising temperatures increase the demand for electricity, especially during periods of heavy cooling use.
Although the overall risk level is assessed as moderate, rising temperatures could lead to a number of problems. According to estimates provided by the Central Bank, a one-degree temperature rise could increase electricity consumption by 0.5-8.5%. On particularly hot days, labor productivity in construction could decrease by 20-30%.
The Central Bank notes that the realization of climate risks could worsen the financial position of borrowers, reduce the value of collateral, and increase bank loan losses. Therefore, the regulator believes it is necessary to consider the vulnerability of industries and regions when assessing the stability of the financial system.
Google machine translated