A lack of rain further complicates the situation, forcing agriculture to rely entirely on artificial irrigation, while our water resources are directly tied to the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, fed by glaciers in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Despite the severe weather, domestic grain production remains stable thanks to irrigation systems. According to the FAO, the wheat harvest in our country increased by 3.7% from 2021 to 2024 compared to the previous five-year period, as a 14% increase in yield offset a 9% reduction in sown area.

Maize harvests increased by 65% ​​due to a 56% expansion of fields, and rice yields increased by 7%, despite a 23% reduction in area planted to rice, offset by a 40% increase in land productivity. At the same time, the international ASAP monitoring system is signaling increasing risks, with drought zones clearly visible in Turkmenistan, northern Iran, southern Kazakhstan, and northwestern Afghanistan.

The current stability due to canals may prove temporary, and experts believe that river flows in the eastern regions of Uzbekistan will have decreased as early as April 2026. The main risks are associated with groundwater depletion and reduced mountain snow cover, so without increased precipitation, maintaining current production levels will be difficult.

Forecasters are allowing for slightly above-normal humidity levels for the period from April to June 2026, but the European Copernicus Service expects temperatures in the region to still be above normal. Brief rains in the spring may partially alleviate the situation, but the effects of the five-year drought continue to weigh on the economy.