Over the past 30 years, the area of Central Asian glaciers has shrunk by 25%, and snow cover in the region’s mountains lasts 30-40 days less than at the beginning of the century. A glacier monitoring conference presents an overview of how water reserves are monitored, what are the preconditions for water security threats, and how to manage water.
Over the past 30 years, the area of glaciers in Central Asia has shrunk by a quarter, and the number of snowy days is decreasing by 1.5–2 days annually. This means that the volume of water in rivers will decrease in summer, while the risk of flooding in spring will increase. These are the results of long-term research.cryosphereAbror Gafurov, a research fellow at the German Research Centre for Geosciences, arrived .
At a conference on glacier monitoring in the context of climate change, he discussed new approaches to monitoring, digital forecasting systems, and the role of citizen science. The event took place on September 17 at Green University, reports a Gazeta correspondent.
Glaciers are melting faster than expected
Research conducted by Abror Gafurov’s team on the Pakhtakor Glacier in Uzbekistan reveals an alarming trend: its area has shrunk by 25% between 1993 and 2023. A similar pattern is observed in other mountainous regions of Central Asia. For example, the Karadarya River basin in Kyrgyzstan’s Osh Region and Uzbekistan’s Andijan and Namangan Regions, which was recently covered by glaciers, is now completely ice-free.
According to the scientist, Central Asia is in a “particularly risky” zone because the ice there is melting faster than in many other mountain ranges. This is due to both global warming and local climate change.
There is less snow
The snow situation is no less serious. Analysis of weather station data and satellite monitoring over the past 25 years shows that snow cover in the Central Asian mountains lasts 30-40 days less than in the early 2000s. On average, this reduction amounts to 1.5-2 days annually.
“Snow is the main source of water in the region. While glaciers provide up to 20% of river runoff, snow accounts for more than half of all water supply. Therefore, the decline in snow cover is the main challenge for Central Asia,” Gafurov said.
What awaits the region’s rivers?
Hydrological forecasts also indicate that in the coming decadessummer river flowwill decrease. This is especially dangerous for the predominantly irrigated agriculture practiced in the region. In the spring, on the contrary, there is an excess of water, which increases the risk of floods and mudflows.
According to Abror Gafurov, the Naryn River basin in Kyrgyzstan and the Zarafshan River basin in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan clearly demonstrate the consequences of climate change. In recent decades, the mountainous regions around these river basins have seen a sharp decline in glaciers and snow cover. If the current trend continues, most of the glaciers will be gone by mid-century , and snow cover will form less frequently and for shorter periods.
Innovations in monitoring
To more accurately forecast water resources and manage flood risks, scientists use the MODSNOW system—a tool for monitoring the cryosphere and water resources. It combines satellite data, hydrological models, and snow and glacier melt forecasts.
The system allows real-time monitoring of water storage in snowpack or glaciers and forecasts available resources 10 days, a month, and even a season in advance. According to Gafurov, MODSNOW has been used by hydrometeorological services in Central Asia for over 10 years and has recently been implemented in Pakistan and Nepal.
In addition, artificial intelligence will be integrated into the system. This will enable short-term forecasts—one to five days in advance. This is especially important for operational planning in agriculture and flood risk management.
Citizen Science
Abror Gafurov explained that scientists are engaging local residents in snow monitoring, as weather station coverage remains insufficient. Volunteers submit snow depth data, photos, and geolocation information via a dedicated Telegram bot. Residents sometimes measure snow using improvised means, but even this data helps to build a general picture of snow cover changes, the expert noted.
Over the past year, nearly a thousand reports have been collected from residents across Central Asia. This data helps verify the accuracy of satellite measurements and, most importantly, allows for the first-ever compilation of detailed maps of snow cover distribution and an assessment of the water availability in rivers and glaciers. This is particularly important for water resource forecasting and flood risk management.
“The agreement with satellite data was 82%. This is an excellent indicator and a clear example of how mountain residents can play a significant role in improving forecast accuracy,” noted Abror Gafurov.
The Future of Water Security
The scientist emphasized that Central Asia remains one of the most vulnerable regions in the world in terms of climate change.
“We must assume that water will be scarcer and competition for it will be greater. Without systematic monitoring and management, we could face serious problems in the coming decades,” Gafurov concluded.
He believes that the developed tools—from MODSNOW to citizen participation in monitoring—offer the opportunity to transition to evidence-based water management. This approach will enable data-driven decision-making, irrigation planning, emergency prevention, and the mitigation of socioeconomic risks.
Google machine translated
https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/09/23/water-security/