Water has ceased to be a purely industrial issue, becoming a strategic resource at the intersection of economics, climate, geopolitics, and energy. At the Tashkent Water Week forum, held in late March, experts discussed global water trends and regional challenges facing Central Asian countries. A Gazeta correspondent has prepared a summary of their presentations.

“Water must be conserved, even if there is enough of it.”

Mirshokhid Aslanov, Executive Director of the Center for Progressive Reforms of Uzbekistan, believes that the water problems facing Central Asia today require an immediate transition from outdated resource assessment methods to real-time monitoring systems.

According to him, the consequences of inefficient water use have long since become global in scale.

“Salt from the Aral Sea floor has even been spotted at the North Pole. This underscores the importance of developing a common approach to common problems,” he said.

Historical mistakes led to the virtual disappearance of the Aral Sea, with serious consequences for the economy, agriculture, and public health. According to Aslanov, this gives Uzbekistan the right to share with its neighbors both its experience and lessons learned, as well as new approaches to resolving the crisis.

 

Mirshokhid Aslanov. Photo: Tashkent Water Week.

The head of Uzbekistan’s Center for Progressive Reforms named resource management as the main challenge for countries in the region, including Afghanistan. For a long time, water distribution in Central Asia was based on rough estimates .

“Unfortunately, we still don’t accurately assess water volumes and manage them effectively. A transparent approach based on real data is needed,” Aslanov said.

He recalled that Uzbekistan is currently planning to widely implement water-saving technologies. Specifically, according to the presidential decree issued in February, drip irrigation technologies will be extended to millions of hectares of agricultural land.

Illustrative photo: Madina Azam / Gazeta.

Speaking about transboundary rivers, the expert supported the right of Afghanistan and other countries to use shared water resources.

“We are ready to help Afghanistan avoid the mistakes we made ourselves. Our experience shows that water must be conserved, even if it is plentiful,” he said.

Mirshokhid Aslanov called on countries in the region to create a unified water resource management system with a shared database. He believes transparent water consumption accounting will strengthen trust between countries and contribute to the region’s economic growth.

“This is not a question of ecology, but of national security.”

Murad Uzakov, Director of the Center for Regional Studies at the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies, highlighted the key factors exacerbating the region’s water crisis in his speech.

He believes that the growing water shortage is linked to demographic growth: over the past 25 years, the population of Central Asia has almost doubled and could exceed 100 million by 2050. This process is accompanied by active urbanization and economic development, which greatly increases the pressure on water resources.

The water management system remains inefficient due to management and technological issues. Due to deteriorating canals, dams, and distribution systems, water losses in some areas reach 40-50% . Approximately 90% of resources are spent on irrigated agriculture, compared to a global average of approximately 30%.

Murad Uzakov. Photo: Tashkent Water Week.

Ineffective water management results in an estimated $2 billion in annual economic losses in the region. According to the UN, approximately 37% of Central Asia’s land is already subject to degradation. If the situation worsens, crop yields could decline by 40% by 2050, creating the risk of a food crisis.

“The water and climate agenda has shifted from environmental concerns to national and regional security. It impacts economic development, energy, and food stability,” said Murad Uzakov.

The expert singled out global warming as a separate factor influencing the situation. Temperatures in the region are rising faster than the global average, accelerating the melting of the Pamir and Tien Shan glaciers, which provide up to 80% of the region’s water resources. Over the past 50 years, their area has shrunk by a third.

According to forecasts, runoff in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins could decrease by 5-13% by 2050. This will lead to changes in ecosystems and precipitation patterns, as well as an increase in droughts and extreme weather events. Uzakov noted that in recent years, the region has seen an increase in sudden downpours—when a month’s worth of rainfall falls in just a few days.

Water shortages and declining agricultural incomes could lead to internal climate migration , with populations leaving agricultural areas en masse and moving to cities. This influx of people will put additional strain on existing infrastructure and social services.

Illustrative photo: Evgeny Sorochin / Gazeta.

Against this backdrop, the expert emphasized the need to review approaches to water resource management and adopt effective and coordinated measures—taking into account the transboundary nature of the region’s main rivers—to strengthen cooperation among Central Asian countries in integrated management. Trust, which has been strengthening between them in recent years, paves the way for mutually beneficial solutions. He cited the joint use of the water and energy resources of the Naryn River, preparations for the construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydroelectric Power Plant, and the development of hydropower on the Zarafshan River as positive examples. The expert also noted progress in relations with Afghanistan on the Koshtepa Canal.

“Our cooperation on the construction of the Koshtepa Canal has evolved into a systemic expert dialogue. A permanent joint working group has been formed, which has allowed us to shift the discussions from a political to a purely professional level,” noted Murad Uzakov.

To overcome the crisis, Uzakov proposed focusing on implementing water-saving technologies, training specialized specialists, and creating financial instruments to attract private investment. He believes the development and adoption of a regional strategy for the rational use of water resources should be a priority.

“We cannot limit ourselves to eliminating crises indefinitely”

Iskandar Abdullaev, Senior Research Fellow at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Office for Central Asia, emphasized the need for the region to transition to a rigorous water economy. He argued that countries need to carefully monitor their water footprints: clearly understand where, in what volumes, and how water is consumed, as well as the economic returns of these processes.

He emphasized that the modern concept of water security is no longer limited to the borders of a single state or support for a single priority economic sector. Central Asian states need to implement a cross-sectoral approach that takes into account the interests of neighboring countries. Abdullaev placed particular emphasis on agriculture, calling for the development of “smart” agro- and biotechnologies that maximize yields per drop of water.

Iskandar Abdullaev. Photo: Xalqaro Press Club

In assessing the impact of global warming, the IWMI representative shifted the focus from the physical scarcity of resources to the factor of unpredictability.

“Climate change isn’t just about water shortages. It’s about growing uncertainty. The time when we could rely on traditional planning months and years in advance is over. Today, the situation is constantly changing,” said Iskandar Abdullaev.

Despite Central Asian countries actively investing in infrastructure modernization, construction of storage systems, and digitalization of accounting, the expert believes that a purely technocratic approach is insufficient to fully resolve the problem. He believes the region underestimates the potential of natural ecosystems.

“We’ve forgotten about our green systems. Their use could reduce the need for complex infrastructure construction and mitigate climate risks, while also saving significant resources,” Abdullaev emphasized.

Illustrative photo: Orifjon Khoshimov / Gazeta.

In his opinion, the successful scaling of new technologies requires coordinated government action, the implementation of digital management systems at the river basin level, and joint environmental forecasting.

The expert identified the disconnect between the academic community and government agencies as one of the key barriers to effective water resource management . When data is limited and information channels between researchers and policymakers are poorly established, decision-making becomes less effective. A lack of data and poor communication reduce the quality of management decisions and hinder the development of the scientific base itself.

“We need to move from reactive management to long-term planning. We can’t limit ourselves to crisis management indefinitely,” concluded Iskandar Abdullaev.

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