On June 11, American meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced that an El Niño phenomenon had begun in the Pacific Ocean, potentially  changing weather patterns around the world in the coming weeks. Forecasters warn that this time it could be especially powerful. “There’s a real possibility that this will be the strongest El Niño in 140 years,” says Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Niño conditions to persist at least until winter. Depending on its strength and duration, this climate phenomenon could cause drought, flooding, heat waves, and disruptions to food and water supplies in several regions. “The world must treat this as the urgent climate warning it is,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “The impacts of El Niño will add fuel to the fire of global warming.”

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a large-scale, naturally occurring climate phenomenon that occurs regularly, typically between two and seven years. It is characterized by fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the atmosphere in these regions.

It all begins when the trade winds (strong, persistent winds) over the tropical Pacific Ocean weaken, causing warm water to accumulate. Although the affected area is roughly the size of the continental United States and affects only one region, the effects are felt worldwide .

“Atmospheric changes in the tropics can then impact more distant regions, in the mid-latitudes. That’s why we’re so concerned about this, even though we’re potentially thousands and thousands of kilometers from the epicenter,” Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), explained in an interview with DW. The effect appears to be the triggering of a global chain reaction, with El Niño, as Schmidt puts it, becoming “the first atmospheric domino to fall.”

What consequences are expected?

The impacts vary greatly from region to region. In some places, the risk of drought increases, while in others, flooding occurs. El Niño periods often bring hotter and drier weather in parts of Central America, Asia, Africa, and Australia . The resulting water shortages can impact agriculture, hydropower, and water supplies. In Honduras, local authorities estimate that approximately 75 municipalities could face severe drought . A water emergency has already been declared in the capital, Tegucigalpa.

Elsewhere on the planet, the risks are different. Along parts of the Pacific coast of South America, El Niño can bring torrential rains and devastating floods . The effects can be felt long after the downpours cease or reservoirs dry up. This climate phenomenon is associated with crop failures and economic losses that could reach trillions of dollars. In 2015-2016, the resulting crop failures left millions of people worldwide in need of food aid.

Increasingly frequent wildfires are also a growing concern. Scientists warn that El Niño will likely increase the risk of extreme heat and drought, which contribute to fires in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Amazon rainforest.

Storms, Reefs, and the Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño plays a significant role in tropical storm activity. Scientists expect this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to be weaker than usual. During El Niño, wind shear typically increases over the Atlantic Ocean , making it more difficult for storms to form and develop.

“Water is beginning to warm in the central and eastern tropical Pacific . Typically, the development of El Niño, especially during the peak of hurricane season, leads to a decrease in cloud cover, thunderstorm activity, rainfall, and the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic,” says atmospheric scientist Brian Tang.

But fewer storms don’t necessarily mean less danger. Once a storm develops into a hurricane, preventing its further development becomes significantly more difficult. Therefore, even a small number of hurricanes occurring under such conditions can have catastrophic consequences . The picture is different in the Pacific Ocean: there, El Niño tends to have the opposite effect, promoting the formation of more storms and their intensification.

Marine ecosystems are also at risk. El Niño-related increases in ocean temperatures could trigger coral bleaching and pose an additional threat to reefs already weakened by repeated heat waves caused by climate change.

The latter also affects agriculture. In India, mango farmers experienced a sharp decline in their harvest: abnormal weather disrupted tree blossoms and fruit development, leading to a decline in production and a hit to their incomes.

How does climate change affect El Niño?

Scientists say there’s no convincing evidence that climate change is making El Niño more powerful. However, it could worsen its effects, for example, turning a severe drought into an extreme one, explains NOAA Senior Scientist Michael McFadden.

A warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme precipitation and flooding. Rising temperatures can also intensify droughts by drying out soils faster. With average global temperatures already at record highs, El Niño could lead to new temperature records.

Can we prepare for El Niño?

The positive aspect of El Niño is that it develops gradually and can be predicted several months in advance. Scientists monitor ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions, allowing governments and the public to prepare in advance.

Forecasts help authorities preserve crops, strengthen flood defenses, and improve early warning systems. “We know in advance where abnormally wet or dry conditions will occur. Thanks to long-range weather forecasts, there’s ample time to develop mitigation strategies and avoid the most severe ones,” McFadden concluded.

https://www.dw.com/ru/gradet-samyj-silnyj-elnino-za-140-let-kak-podgotovitsa/a-77508992

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