The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the chance of El Niño continuing into February is nearly 100%, the highest level of confidence the agency has ever given in its forecasts.
According to the WMO , the natural phenomenon will continue to intensify in the coming months and reach exceptional levels, with its climate impacts expected to be felt until early 2027. The peak of the phenomenon is expected by the end of this year.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva that if current trends continue, the current El Niño could be the strongest on record – that is, in the last four decades.
El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that influences winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation patterns worldwide. The strong El Niño of 2023–2024 contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record; the WMO does not rule out breaking this record.
The organization emphasized that El Niño is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, but it does exacerbate global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels and intensifies weather anomalies.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the planet is “in uncharted waters” that continue to warm, with rising ocean surface temperatures and climate anomalies confirming that the world is at increased risk of extreme weather events.
Saulo noted that the current El Niño has the potential to severely impact communities and economies around the world, and called on emergency management agencies and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water management to begin preparing immediately.
According to the WMO classification, El Niño events can be weak, moderate, strong, or very strong; the current cycle is predicted to reach the highest category.
The agency also reported that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is forecast for the period from September to November over almost all land areas, and that precipitation patterns will be consistent with the classic atmospheric response to a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.
The index, which reflects sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, has increased from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July. From late July to mid-August, weekly readings were 2.2–2.6°C above normal, indicating continued intensification of the phenomenon. In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures in July and early August exceeded average values by more than 8°C.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts from nine months to a year, followed by either the opposite phenomenon, La Niña, or neutral conditions.
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