The new “Electricity Now” initiative — dubbed “Electrification-35” — is shaping up to be one of the central themes at the upcoming 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya. Climate expert Alexey Kokorin, of the Nature and People Foundation and CAN EECCA’s representative to the CAN Policy Coordination Group, unpacked what lies behind the slogan for journalists and network members at a press conference organized by the CAN EECCA Secretariat on September 2. His central message: the new target must not come at the expense of phasing out fossil fuels — it should complement that goal, not replace it.

Where the idea came from

Three years ago, at COP28, countries formally agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels — a formulation that, despite considerable skepticism, has genuinely shifted priorities among financial institutions. Yet the two conferences that followed failed to translate that language into anything more concrete. After COP30, more than twenty countries with no fossil fuel reserves of their own but abundant sun and wind — across South America, parts of Europe, and small island states — struck out on their own, forming the Santa Marta process without major players like China, India, or Saudi Arabia.

COP31’s hosts, Turkey and Australia, together with Brazil and Ethiopia (hosts of the previous and next conferences), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), put forward an alternative banner, unveiling “Electricity Now” in June. It’s worth being clear about what this is: not a negotiating item tied to binding national commitments, but part of the conference’s “action agenda.” It’s expected to be discussed and folded into COP31’s overarching outcome document, but it won’t carry the force of a legally binding rule. The Paris Agreement and its financial architecture remain unchanged.

What’s actually being proposed

The initiative isn’t about access to electricity, its quality, or where it comes from — it’s about electricity’s share of Total Final Energy Consumption. That figure currently stands at roughly 22% globally, and the goal is to raise it one and a half times over the next decade, reaching 50% by 2050 under IRENA’s roadmap.

The picture varies sharply by region. Africa lags furthest behind, at around 12%; Asia sits at roughly 26%, driven largely by China, which already reached 30% in 2025 and is on track to hit 35% by 2030 — ahead of its own target. The IEA also estimates that China’s CO2 emissions peaked in 2025.

Kokorin was careful to note that this slogan isn’t synonymous with an actual shift to renewables: Vietnam, for instance, leads the world in electric transport uptake while continuing to build coal plants, since coal remains the backbone of its economy.

What this means for Central Asia

Given the region’s heating needs and energy-intensive metallurgy sector — particularly pronounced in Kazakhstan — reaching the global 35% benchmark isn’t realistic for Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan’s own figure climbed from 13% in 2020 to 15.4% in 2025. Extrapolating that trajectory — a 2.5-percentage-point rise over five years, or 7.5 points if the pace accelerates — points to roughly the same one-and-a-half-times increase by 2035 as the global average. In other words, Kazakhstan, and likely its neighbors, won’t be able to claim the 35% figure outright, but they can credibly show they’re keeping pace with the growth rate the initiative calls for.

Nuclear power is a separate story: the IEA projects its global share will essentially plateau, largely for economic rather than environmental reasons — the agency’s assessments are guided strictly by economic logic. (See our separate position paper on nuclear energy.)

CAN International’s position

“Interest in the 35% figure shouldn’t crowd out the real task — moving away from fossil fuels. It needs to complement that goal, not substitute for it,” Kokorin stressed, adding that the network of environmental NGOs will push for a sharper formulation of the target: not simply “electrification,” but “electrification powered by renewable energy sources.”

In short, “Electricity Now” is a meaningful piece of the climate agenda, but not one that stands on its own. Real progress will be measured less by the growth in electricity’s share of energy use, and more by where that electricity comes from — and by how quickly the world actually moves away from fossil fuels.

https://caneecca.org/en/press-release-electrify-now-is-cop31s-new-buzzword-but-no-substitute-for-a-fossil-fuel-phase-out/