In Central Asia, pressure on water resources is increasing year by year due to climate change, rapid glacier melt, population growth, and economic development. Water issues in the region have become not only an environmental challenge, but also an economic, social, and geopolitical one.

The decline in water volumes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins, which are the main sources of water resources in Central Asia, is putting serious pressure on agricultural production, drinking water supply, energy security and food prices.

Countries in the region are trying to address this problem through more efficient water use, the adoption of digital technologies, and stronger regional cooperation.

During the Soviet era, Kyrgyzstan, where the Syr Darya originates, and Tajikistan, the source of the Amu Darya, provided the region with electricity thanks to hydroelectric power plants on these rivers. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, in turn, used these rivers’ waters to irrigate agricultural land.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the breakdown of the common energy grid and worsening droughts led to increased pressure on water resources, which at times became a source of disagreement between countries in the region.

However, in recent years, thanks to the development of good-neighbourly relations and political dialogue, significant progress has been achieved in issues of shared water resources.

However, climate change, rapidly shrinking glaciers, population growth and economic development are creating increasingly complex water management challenges for Central Asian countries.

Water resources are becoming scarce, but demand is growing.

The mountain glaciers of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are the largest freshwater reserves in Central Asia, are among the regions where the effects of climate change are most noticeable.

In Tajikistan, which has approximately 14,000 glaciers, more than 1,300 have completely disappeared over the past 50 years. Currently, the country has lost approximately 30% of its total glaciated area.

In Kyrgyzstan, home to over 8,000 glaciers, approximately 2,000 have disappeared over the past half-century. If current trends continue, another third of the country’s glaciers are projected to disappear by 2040.

As a result, the region’s water resources are expected to shrink by up to 15% in the coming years, which could lead to a slowdown in Central Asia’s economic growth.

At the same time, due to population growth and economic development, water demand in the region is expected to increase by 25% by 2040.

Agriculture will suffer the most

Most of the water used in the region is used for agricultural irrigation. Experts believe that agriculture will be the most vulnerable sector to water shortages.

Experts estimate that if the trend of water shortages continues, agricultural production could decline by approximately 20% by 2050.

Moreover, experts note that the water problem already results in annual economic losses for the region of approximately $2 billion.

Experts emphasize the need for wider use of drip irrigation, sprinkler systems, digital agricultural technologies, intelligent water management, groundwater monitoring systems, and reuse of treated wastewater.

Amid growing risks, countries in the region have accelerated investment in water-saving technologies in recent years.

In Uzbekistan, where more than 80% of water used comes from transboundary sources, water conservation projects implemented over the past five years have reduced annual water consumption by approximately 10 billion cubic meters (25%).

Water conservation technologies are currently used on almost half of the country’s 4.3 million hectares of irrigated land. Plans call for these methods to be expanded to all irrigated areas.

Regional cooperation is strengthening

In recent years, cooperation on the joint use of transboundary water resources has been developing between the countries of Central Asia.

Most of the region’s water resources come from transboundary rivers. Experts note that a long-term solution to this problem is only possible through strengthening joint management mechanisms between states.

A number of agreements between countries in the region are already in effect in this area. They provide for the coordinated use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers during the winter and summer periods between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which generate electricity from these rivers, and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, which use these waters for agriculture.

Experts emphasize that integrated management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins, digital groundwater monitoring, and the creation of common databases are critical to the region’s water security.

In their view, in the context of the increasing impacts of climate change, the sustainable development of Central Asia depends on joint, effective and scientifically based water resource management.

“Water has become a strategic factor determining the future of Central Asia.”

Uzbek water resources management specialist Bahadir Kamilov told an AA correspondent that the future of Central Asia depends on sustainable water resource management.

According to him, past issues related to water distribution between countries in the region were largely resolved through political dialogue. However, climate change has created a new and more complex problem.

“Previously, the main problem was water distribution. Today, the amount of water that can be distributed is gradually decreasing. Therefore, the issue is not only about coordination between countries, but also about using existing resources much more efficiently,” Kamilov said.

He noted that the dissemination of water-saving technologies, the creation of digital water management systems, and the joint exchange of hydrological data have become not a choice, but a necessity.

“No Central Asian country can solve this problem on its own. Water today is no longer just a natural resource, but also a strategic factor that will determine the region’s economic stability and its future,” the expert emphasized.

Google machine translated