Droughts in Central Asia have become noticeably more frequent in recent decades. While at the end of the last century, major periods of low water levels were recorded approximately once per decade, by the 2000s they had become significantly more frequent, and in recent years, the region has been experiencing droughts almost every other year.

This was stated by Iskandar Abdullaev, Senior Research Fellow at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), commenting on the results of a regional study on the causes and consequences of drought. He explained that the World Bank project conducted a rapid assessment of drought processes in five Central Asian countries and examined the causes and possible solutions at the regional level.

The expert noted that drought and water shortages are becoming a chronic problem. He identified climate change as the main cause—a shift in precipitation, its reduction, and an increase in water demand due to rising temperatures. Furthermore, Central Asia is a region where temperatures are rising faster than the global average and is considered a low-water region due to its natural and climatic conditions.

According to Abdullaev, studies show a significant reduction in river water levels. Furthermore, a shift in the water regime has been observed: whereas previously the water cycle began in March and continued until September, now low water inflows are recorded until June.

He cited additional causes as the inadequacy of irrigation systems for modern conditions, the increase in the number of water users following agricultural reforms, increased competition for water, as well as deteriorating hydraulic infrastructure and inefficient use of water resources. All of this, he said, leads to hydrological drought—a situation where water is either insufficient or distributed improperly.

Abdullaev noted that the drought problem is observed even in countries that are the region’s water sources – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

According to him, the drought primarily impacts irrigated agriculture, but it also affects other economic sectors. In particular, livestock farming is experiencing significant losses due to water and feed shortages, while hydropower generation is declining due to reduced water levels in reservoirs.

He estimates that economic damage from droughts can reach up to 2% of a country’s GDP, with losses continuing to grow due to the increasing frequency of the phenomenon.

He also noted the shrinking of glaciers, which act as natural water reservoirs. According to him, their volume has decreased by approximately 30% compared to the last century, which directly impacts the formation of water resources.

Speaking about measures, the expert highlighted three key areas: the creation of drought early warning systems, water conservation across all economic sectors, and adaptation of agriculture to climate change, including the development of drought-resistant crops and improved pasture management.

He stressed that the population, farmers and authorities must receive information in advance about a possible drought, its scale and duration.

According to Abdullaev, countries in the region need to implement water-saving technologies, improve pasture conditions, and switch to more drought-resistant crops.

Photo: asia+