Per capita availability of renewable water resources in Central Asia continues to decline, despite some improvements in water conservation. This is according to data from the updated AQUASTAT database, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for December 2025.

According to the review, since 2015, Central Asian countries have lost approximately 12% of their available renewable freshwater resources per capita. This is one of the highest rates in the world.

The problem is not just climate change

In an interview with Anadolu, Bulat Yessekin, coordinator of the Central Asian Platform on Water and Climate Change, emphasized that the key reason for the growing water shortage is not so much climate change, but the current water management model.

According to him, Central Asia is one of the regions with low water supplies, yet all Central Asian countries are located within the Aral Sea basin. This interdependence, the ecologist pointed out, elevates the water issue to an interstate level and reinforces the importance of coordinated solutions.

The expert noted that the situation is exacerbated by inefficient water use. The practice of producing water-intensive agricultural products, primarily cotton and rice, continues unabated.

Reduction in reservoir filling

Yessekin noted that reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are filling significantly less this year than in previous years. He estimates that if current trends continue, the region could soon face water shortages comparable to those in Iran, which could negatively impact electricity generation and agricultural production.

According to him, economic planning in Central Asian countries is still based on the old paradigm—the assumption that natural systems are capable of independently replenishing extracted resources. However, this mechanism, the expert noted, is no longer effective.

Focus on “blue water”

According to Yesekin, the region’s water policy is focused primarily on the use of so-called “blue water”—water in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and underground aquifers. “Meanwhile, the ‘green’ part of the water cycle—water in the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere, which previously ensured the stability of water and climate processes—is practically ignored,” the ecologist noted.

Restoring these mechanisms, he says, requires a shift from large-scale engineering solutions to more localized approaches aimed at retaining water in the landscape and restoring water flows.

Yessekin noted that Central Asian countries are taking steps to improve water use efficiency. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have adopted new water codes, emphasizing water-saving technologies, tariff regulation, monitoring, and digitalization.

“However, without replenishing water sources and restoring water flows, such measures have limited effectiveness,” he added. According to the ecologist, new infrastructure projects in the region, including the construction of a large diversion canal in Afghanistan, which could affect the flow of the Amu Darya, are also putting additional pressure on the system.

Central Asia is increasingly seen as the world’s “hot spot” in terms of water crisis.

In turn, ecologist Aizhan Kossantayeva, who has practical experience implementing climate and water projects in Central Asian countries, noted in an interview with Anadolu that the region’s landlocked location, as well as its climatic characteristics, have historically led to a shortage of water resources.

“Today, Central Asia is increasingly viewed as a ‘hot spot’ and one of the most vulnerable regions in the world in terms of climate change and water crises,” Kossantaeva noted.

The expert noted that, according to World Bank projections, water shortages in the region could reach 25–30% by 2050. “Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also indicate a likely increase in droughts by 5–20%,” the ecologist explained.

According to her, the expected increase in water stress—up to 2.8 times in some areas in the near future—is compounded by existing vulnerabilities. “Low water use efficiency, deteriorating infrastructure, large-scale agriculture, and rapid population growth are increasing pressure on water systems,” the expert emphasized.

Speaking about water resource dynamics, Kossantaeva noted that in the next decade, the impression of relative stability or even an increase in water runoff may emerge, due to intensive glacier melting. However, she noted that this effect is temporary. “Statistics show that over the past 50 years, glaciers in Central Asian countries have lost approximately 30% of their area, and reduced precipitation prevents them from replenishing,” the ecologist emphasized. Among possible technical solutions, Kossantaeva mentioned the creation of artificial glaciers. “Such technologies are already being used in other countries, and for Central Asia, it’s more a matter of time and proper preparation,” she noted.

Solutions to the water crisis and the diversion of Siberian waters

Commenting on the Soviet project to divert Siberian river flows, which periodically returns to the public and political agenda today, the expert emphasized that such initiatives carry serious environmental and political risks.

“At that time, the project envisioned transferring water through open channels. Now, they’re considering and periodically revisiting the project, but with closed pipeline systems. While this looks promising, it’s also been the subject of considerable criticism,” she noted.

Kossantaeva emphasized that any large-scale intervention in an ecosystem is unpredictable and often irreversible. “The example of the Aral Sea clearly demonstrates this,” she added.

Answering a question about possible solutions to the water crisis, the expert noted that the term “adaptation” is increasingly being discussed at international forums. She believes this is where the region should focus its efforts—adapting to changing conditions, paying particular attention to the most vulnerable areas. “These areas include the Aral Sea region, where the population is already suffering from the consequences of the Aral Sea disaster, and densely populated areas such as the Fergana Valley,” the ecologist noted.

Furthermore, Kossantaeva emphasized the importance of interstate cooperation and the role of regional platforms, such as the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC), as a key mechanism for dialogue and coordination.

Google machine translated

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