The construction of the Kosh-Tepa Canal in Afghanistan has become one of the most discussed topics in Central Asia in recent years: some call the project a threat to water security for the entire region, while others see it as a realization of the Afghans’ legitimate right to use the Amu Darya’s resources. Azattyk Asia examined the project and its history, and spoke with experts about what might await countries along the Amu Darya if the canal is completed.

What is Kosh-Tepa?

The Kosh-Tepa Canal is a hydraulic structure designed to collect water from the Amu Darya River and transport it deep into Afghanistan. The project entails the construction of a 290-kilometer-long main canal, 125 meters wide at the intake, and approximately eight meters deep. Once completed, Afghanistan expects to develop approximately 550,000 hectares of new agricultural land.

To fully operate the project, more than 500 kilometers of distribution channels will need to be built. Construction costs, according to various estimates, range from $680 million to $2 billion.

In the media, Kosh-Tepa is often referred to as a Taliban project, but the idea for its construction emerged long before the Taliban came to power.

Former Afghan Minister of Disaster Management Najib Agha Fahim says talk of building a canal has been going on for decades. He says the project first emerged during the time of President Mohammad Daoud in the 1970s, and its implementation practically began under the Western-backed Afghan government (2001–2021).

“After the Taliban overthrew the republican government, they inherited the project,” says Najib Agha Fahim, a former minister for disaster management in the Afghan government that served until the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Why did the Taliban start construction?

In 2018, the pro-Western government of Afghanistan returned to the idea of ​​developing the northern regions of the country through the use of the resources of the Amu Darya.

This occurred against the backdrop of the Kamal Khan Dam and irrigation system project on the Helmand River in the south. At the time, the authorities hoped to expand agricultural production and reduce the country’s dependence on food imports.

In December 2018, Kabul signed a contract with the American engineering company AECOM to conduct a feasibility study for the project. The work was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

By August 2021, when the Taliban movement took control of Kabul, the canal’s design documentation was fully prepared. AECOM engineers had identified the location of the future water intake on the Amu Darya, and the new authorities simply had to secure funding and begin construction.

Said Zabihullah Miri, head of the Kosh-Tepa Canal project, asserts that the construction will not have a significant impact on the Amu Darya’s water level. He notes that the river has significant water reserves, especially during floods and glacial meltwater influxes.

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“The Kosh-Tepa canal is not expected to have a significant impact on the Amu Darya’s water level, as the river carries large volumes of water,” Miri says.

Dispute over Amu Darya water

Kabul acknowledges that the canal’s construction could spark disputes with neighboring countries. Even before the Taliban came to power, Afghan authorities were preparing to defend their country’s right to use the Amu Darya’s waters.

Najib Agha Fahim believes that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan lack legal grounds to challenge the project. He argues that Afghanistan’s right to water is enshrined in historical agreements and international norms.

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“Afghanistan’s right to a share of the Amu Darya’s water is guaranteed by a number of historical documents and international conventions,” says Fahim.

He cites the 1958 agreement between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union, which recognized the Amu Darya as a transboundary river. According to him, the document provides for equal rights for both parties to use water resources.

After the collapse of the USSR, Central Asian countries retained the Soviet water distribution system through the 1992 Almaty Agreement. According to this document, the states of the region agreed to maintain the water use limits in place during the Soviet period.

According to established quotas, the annual volume of water intake from the Amu Darya is distributed as follows:

• Uzbekistan – 48.2 percent;
• Turkmenistan – 35.8 percent;
• Tajikistan – 15.4 percent;
• Kyrgyzstan – 0.6 percent.

Afghanistan is not a party to this agreement.

How much water can Afghanistan take?

The Amu Darya is considered the most voluminous river in Central Asia. Its length (including the Panj) is approximately 2,400 kilometers, and its annual flow is comparable to that of the Nile—approximately 75 cubic kilometers of water. One cubic kilometer equals one billion tons of water.

The Afghan side points out that approximately 30 percent of the Amu Darya basin’s natural flow is generated within its territory. Based on the average flow over the past 30 years, this amounts to approximately 21–23 cubic kilometers of water per year. Afghanistan plans to use 6–10 cubic kilometers of water annually through the Kosh-Tepa Canal.

Najib Agha Fahim believes that even at maximum capacity of the Kosh-Tepa project, the volume of water intake will not exceed 12 percent of the total flow of the Amu Darya.

At the same time, experts note that even a 10-12 percent reduction in water resources could pose a serious challenge for downstream countries, as agriculture in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan relies heavily on the Amu Darya.

Uzbekistan chose negotiations over confrontation.

Despite alarming predictions on social media and in the media, official Tashkent has abandoned harsh rhetoric regarding the canal’s construction.

In the spring of 2025, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan signed an agreement on the joint management of the Amu Darya basin’s water resources. Uzbek Water Resources Minister Shavkat Khamrayev stated that Tashkent views Afghanistan as a neighboring country that also has the right to use the river’s resources.

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“To be honest, the Afghans are our relatives. They also have the right to take water from the Amu Darya. Now people are writing online: they’re building Kosh-Tepa, something’s happening… Should we take up arms and go to war? No. We’re building relationships, we’re having a dialogue,” Khamrayev said.

According to him, water distribution issues should be resolved through negotiations, documents, and working contacts between countries.

The main problem is water loss

Over the past 30 years, the Amu Darya’s flow has decreased by approximately 12 percent. However, while this decline has been gradual over several decades, the decline could accelerate significantly once the Kosh-Tepa Canal reaches its full capacity.

At the same time, experts point out that the problem of water shortages in the region is connected not only with the new Afghan project.

One of the main risk factors remains water loss in the existing irrigation system.

Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based analytical organization Central Asia Due Diligence, notes that approximately 90 percent of water resources in Uzbekistan are used by agriculture, but a significant portion of the water does not reach end consumers due to the state of the infrastructure.“

“Agriculture in our country, and perhaps in Turkmenistan as well, consumes 90 percent of the total water supply. But not all of it reaches farmers. Since 65 percent of all irrigation canals don’t have a concrete foundation, a significant portion of water—approximately 36 percent, according to estimates—is simply lost to the ground,” says Ilkhamov.

According to him, many canals are in unsatisfactory condition and require reconstruction.

Old irrigation systems are losing billions of cubic meters of water.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan use the water of the Amu Darya through an extensive network of main canals and pumping stations.

The total length of the two countries’ main canals exceeds 2,500 kilometers. However, the total length of irrigation networks is significantly greater: over 182,000 kilometers in Uzbekistan and approximately 39,000 kilometers in Turkmenistan.

According to the World Bank, only about half of the supplied water in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya reaches irrigated lands. The rest is lost due to seepage through earthen canals and evaporation.

The most difficult situation is observed in the regions of Khorezm, Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan and Dashoguz in Turkmenistan.

The World Bank cites the degradation of irrigation infrastructure and the poor quality of canals as one of the causes of these losses. In Uzbekistan, approximately 30 percent of canals are paved, while in Turkmenistan, the figure is approximately 20 percent.

“The Karakum Main Canal in Turkmenistan is a prime example. Built and commissioned in 1967, it currently delivers only about half of the water withdrawn from the Amu Darya,” the World Bank assessment states.

The Karakum Canal annually transfers up to 12 cubic kilometers of water—approximately a fifth of the Amu Darya’s flow.

Environmentalists believe that modernizing such facilities remains one of the region’s key challenges. Turkmen environmentalist and human rights activist Farid Tukhbatullin says that reconstructing just one major canal won’t solve the problem without upgrading the entire water delivery system.“

“Just because more water will be stored in this canal doesn’t mean it will reach the fields. The same needs to be done with the first- and second-order canals. Many of these canals haven’t been reconstructed or cleaned in a long time,” says Tukhbatullin.

How Uzbekistan is trying to reduce water consumption

Against the backdrop of growing water shortages, Uzbekistan has begun reforming its agriculture and introducing technologies designed to reduce water consumption.

One of the key areas was a cluster system in agriculture, which involves uniting raw material producers, processors, and suppliers into a single production chain. The authorities hoped that this model would attract investment and accelerate the implementation of modern irrigation methods and other water-saving technologies.

According to official data, such systems are currently used on 2.6 million hectares of irrigated land—approximately 60 percent of the total. Authorities claim that these technologies will save approximately two cubic kilometers of water by 2025.

However, experts believe that technical solutions alone are not enough. Alisher Ilkhamov of Central Asia Due Diligence argues that the problem lies not only in water delivery methods but also in the agricultural model itself. He notes that farmers, especially those in the cotton sector, have limited ability to independently select crops and make decisions about land use.

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“Farmers, especially in the cotton sector, remain enslaved. They are subject to the dictates of a centralized command economy. They have no right to manage their land or decide what crops to plant,” says Ilkhamov.

He believes that instead of administrative methods, it is necessary to create economic conditions in which farmers themselves will be interested in reducing water consumption and introducing modern technologies.

“The measures the government is taking are far from sufficient to avoid the looming crisis, which will occur in just two to three years,” the expert believes.

The main indicator remains unchanged

Despite the growing number of water-saving technology projects, water withdrawals from the Amu Darya have not significantly decreased. A significant portion of the river’s flow is still used for agriculture, and only a small portion reaches the Aral Sea.

Construction of the Kosh-Tepa Canal. Photo from official Afghan sources.