The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issued a dire forecast in its June 3, 2026, report. The decline in water levels will continue for the next 50 years. This process will directly affect five littoral countries: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. Due to global climate change, water from the surface of this closed basin, not connected to the oceans, is evaporating much faster than before.

Environmentalists are seriously concerned about the threat to local wildlife. Sturgeon are particularly hard hit, as approximately 90% of the global population lives here. They can no longer freely enter river deltas to spawn. Furthermore, the living conditions of the Caspian seal, which relies on winter ice in the northern waters for breeding, are deteriorating, and more than 100 species of waterbirds are under threat.

Human factors are also exacerbating the situation. The Volga River is the sea’s main source of water, providing approximately 80% of all inflow. However, more than 14,000 dams have been built on it, and water is being actively withdrawn for industry and agriculture.

The shallowing of the waters also harms the economies of these countries, as ports, shipping, fisheries, and tourism are at risk. Adapting port infrastructure to the new conditions will require hundreds of millions of dollars from coastal states. Our country is closely monitoring the situation, as the environmental crisis in our neighbors inevitably impacts our entire region.

UNEP calls on the Caspian basin states to join forces within the framework of the 2003 Tehran Convention to establish joint scientific monitoring and coordinate adaptation measures. Faig Mutallimov, Senior Advisor to the Office of the Representative of the President of Azerbaijan on Climate Issues, emphasized that protecting the Caspian Sea is a shared responsibility of all littoral countries, requiring immediate and responsible collective action.