The Kazakhstan National Company “Kazakhstan Gharysh Sapary” conducted monitoring of the state of the Caspian Sea using space imagery data from different periods over a historical period (15 years). According to archival space imagery data, the seabed in the northern part of the Kazakh waters has become exposed, and the Caspian Sea is becoming shallower.

According to remote sensing data, over the past 15 years the water area of ​​the Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea has significantly decreased by 7.1%. Experts also present the dynamics of changes in the area of ​​the water surface in the period from 2008 to 2023 within the borders of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Large areas of shallowing of the sea are observed in the Kazakh part near the city of Atyrau (delta of the Zhaiyk River). The area of ​​the water surface of the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea was 113,866.67 km2 in 2008, and 105,745.23 km2 in 2023.

An analysis of multi-temporal space images over 15 years has revealed a decrease in the area of ​​the water surface, but the sea level may also have dropped, which requires a comprehensive study.

The fall in the Caspian Sea level may lead to a number of negative consequences affecting both ecosystems and marine economy. According to the data, the most vulnerable is the Kazakh part of the Caspian Sea near the city of Atyrau.

According to forecasts by Dutch and German scientists, by the end of the 21st century the water level of the Caspian Sea may decrease by 9-18 meters, which will provoke a number of environmental changes and problems. The study was published in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

Scientists have created a computer model of the Caspian Sea and other major lakes in the world. The calculations show a potential decrease in water in large fresh and salt lakes in the coming decades. In the Caspian Sea, the water level is decreasing due to rising temperatures under the influence of global warming, and also depends on the amount of water in the rivers flowing into it.

The area of ​​the sea could shrink sharply due to the fact that water from its surface will evaporate faster, and the ice cover in its northern part will disappear in winter.

If the Paris Climate Agreement is implemented, the Caspian Sea water level will drop by 9 meters, otherwise by 18 meters or more. Then the sea area will shrink by about a third: the shallow Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay will disappear completely, and the northern coast of the sea will shift tens of kilometers to the south.

With the reduction of the area, the Caspian seal, whose young spend the first days of their lives on the ice off the coast of Russia and Kazakhstan, is at risk of extinction. The number of beluga sturgeons and many other unique representatives of the flora and  fauna of the northern Caspian may also sharply decrease. 

Scientists hope that their research will attract the attention of diplomats from all countries whose territory is adjacent to the Caspian Sea, so that they can begin to address the problem of shallowing now.

Let us recall that in June of this year, within the framework of the Baku-Moscow-Astana-Astrakhan video bridge, which took place at the Sputnik Azerbaijan Multimedia Press Center, the topic of “Shallowing of the Caspian Sea: a natural process or a critical moment” was also discussed.

The shallowing of the Caspian Sea has long been a concern for scientists. The Caspian states have intensified the dialogue in this area at the profile level. The Caspian Sea level is currently minus 28.6 meters according to the Baltic height system.

Let us recall that in connection with the shallowing process, in early June, a local emergency was declared in Aktau, Kazakhstan, to prevent a real emergency with a complete shutdown of water and electricity supplies to the region. Two underwater shoals were discovered in the sea, which appeared due to the lowering of the Caspian Sea level.

Historically, residents of the city of Aktau drink desalinated water from the Caspian Sea.

As previously reported, in early June the sea receded by approximately 450-500 meters from the coastline. Because of this, the inlet water channels gradually began to run aground, but for now the water was flowing in full. The drop in sea level has already led to intensive deposition of silt and sand into the water intake channels. During the year, the Mangyshlak Nuclear Power Plant, which provides residents with desalinated drinking water, used a dredger to clean the bottom of the CHPP-1 channel. To clean the second water channel, it is necessary to hold a tender for the purchase of a dredger.

“A visual inspection using a quadcopter showed that two shoals had appeared in the sea, but they were still under water. They were located in front of the water intake channel. The first ridge was about 150 meters away, the second one was long and was 300 meters away. After discovering these shoals, we immediately contacted the Aktau Akimat,” said Ayan Uikekbayev, Deputy General Director of MAEK LLP.

According to the power plant, the sea level in 1977 was minus 29.16 meters according to the Baltic height system. In 1995, it was minus 26.85. Today, the level is minus 29.20 meters.

According to the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the sea level has been falling since 2005 and has reached a critical level for the ecosystem and marine economy.

The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources reported that over the past 15 years, the Caspian Sea has seen the least amount of precipitation, and evaporation processes have been more intense. In addition, due to a series of low-water years in the Volga basin, the average water inflow was also the smallest. The main reason for this low water level, the department noted, is global warming, which has affected the entire northern hemisphere of the Earth.

“In 2021, the sea level was minus 28.43 m, in the first quarter of 2022 – minus 28.69 m. By December last year, the mark could reach minus 28.78 m. A decrease in sea level to a mark below minus 28.5 m, judging by the history of the Caspian Sea, is critical for both its ecosystem and marine economy . The current drop in sea level leads to a number of negative consequences, and the most vulnerable is the Kazakh part,” the press service of the ministry reported.  

Космический мониторинг показал обмеление акватории казахстанского части Каспия